Makybe & the NRL

[Makybe]

The NRL is Australian Rugby League and is my number 1 footy code. By a long, long way.

The competition starts tomorrow (Friday) and as per usual, Round 1 is just full of trap games. Therefore not going for anything too exotic to start the season.

The aim of this thread will be to place 1 bet each week (plus origin and finals bets if desired) for the 26 weeks of the season and see what sort of percentage profit (or loss) we can show for the season.

Gonna keep it simple and flat stake $100 per week on the selection. Any type of bet is fine. I tend to stick to margins, straight win bets and the odd multi but hereby reserve the right to pick anything that pops up.

Stake - $100
Returns -
Bet #1 Sunday - Gold Coast Titans to beat Newcastle Knights @ 1.42

Cheers

[clarke9]

Hi there Makybe am a Hull fc supporter myself never miss a game. Who do you fancy to win the grand final this year then? Manly looked very good against leeds and they wont have even been fully wound up yet.

Will follow your tips with interest, good luck!

[Makybe]

Hi Clarke,

Does Shaun Berrigan play for your side ? Or is that the other Hull side. I personally was not very happy with you poms for pilfering him from us.

I'm a mad Brisbane Broncos supporter and will be at Suncorp Stadium, easily the best rectangular football stadium in the country, tomorrow night for the season opener against the Cowboys. The local Queensland derby. Will be over 50k there tomorrow night.

Manly would be considered a safe tip for the comp. They are favourites and will be there at the business end. But thats not a sexy enough tip for my punting instincts. At the odds, I fancy the New Zealand Warriors. They have recruited really well for 2009. Also the North Queensland Cowboys could do anything, and last time I looked were about 14-1. Jonothan Thurston is their halfback and the best player in the world by some space when he is on song. I'm tipping them to beat us tomorrow night, as they often play insane first game of the season against big brother. But with little confidence.

As for the World Club Challenge, call it arrogance or whatever but most Aussie league fans regard the game as a complete joke. It is my considered opinion that if Leeds travelled here to play our premiers on or around Round 4, they would get smashed by 50. As would every Super League winner year in year out. But I guess thats why they play it in England when our side has barely played a trial. It is also my considered opinion that Leeds would not beat ANY side in the NRL on or around Round 4 of the season. Its just an opinion, and a point of discussion. I didn't even watch the game, showing my complete disdain for the contest.

The Super League is reasonable to watch, due to the attacking football, but is very soft in many respects and a primed (which is why I consider about Round 4 to be ideal) NRL team would rip Super League sides to peices.

Last time I went through the Super League sides, I couldn't really figure out why Warrington don't do better than they do, cause at the time they seemed to have the best of the imports, however I can't really comment intelligently on the quality of their home grown players.

Once again these are just opinions.
Cheers mate

[clarke9]

Well dont beat around the bush makybe say what you really mean.ha

Please dont mention the other hull side again we are Hull fc the mighty black and whites and yes we have Berigan a brilliant player and we have just started to see the best of him in the hooker role.

For some reason our game is well behind the aussies but we only play it in a very small part of the country so most kids opt for union or football. We do have some good players though and i do think the superleague is a much better game to watch then the NRL.

I do watch the NRL on setanta but there jsut sometimes seems to be a lack of atmosphere over there which is what a lot of the aussie players have said over here.

Your right about thurston but the thing with you lot is you have so many world class players in every position and could probs put 10 different teams together which would beat us every time.

Lifes all about opinions. Good luck with your bets and your season you cant beat a good game of rugby!

[craig.gibson]

Good luck with this Makybe.....I used to go watch Leeds when I was a kid as was born there and my nan lived just near the ground.

I wouldn`t say I was a big fan but do watch em when they are on tv.

[Makybe]

Manly looked very good against leeds and they wont have even been fully wound up yet.

well you should have seen them tonight

Manly got smashed 34-12, and that flatters them, by the Bulldogs who came dead last in 2008

standard faire for round 1 I guess

Cheers

[clarke9]

Yes watched this morning just shows again how strong that league is. Leeds gave Wigan a hammering last night as well.

DO you think in the NRL it is best to back the outsider of the two teams in the early rounds as that might be the value? Surely the bookies dont really have a grip of any form yet.

[Makybe]

DO you think in the NRL it is best to back the outsider of the two teams in the early rounds as that might be the value? Surely the bookies dont really have a grip of any form yet.

I don't think you can make blanket assumptions like that. But the competition is closer than it has ever been. Anybody can beat anybody on any given day.

You'd still be behind so far this round if you backed all the outsiders. As only 1 of 5 has won thus far. So seemingly, the bookies already have a handle on things. But if you look a bit deeper, they probly don't.

Broncos were favourites, and very lucky indeed to win by a point. Cowboys should have won.
Storm were favourites, are the bogey team of the dragons, and only just limped over the line in golden point at home.
Warriors were probly favourites to smash the Eels. They won, but the Eels showed enough and probly beat the start.
Cronulla vs Penrith was probly the worst game played in the NRL for 5 years. Terrible, terrible game. Both sides have nothing.
And the rank upset of the dogs beating Manly.


The dogs had a swag of new players, including some quality ones, a new coach and one of their favourite sons in Hazem El Masri was to break the all time point scorers record. Clearly they were "up" for the game big time.

Manly on the other hand were probly flattened by travelling around the world for a nonsense game. Add to this all the controversy they had during the week with sexual assault charges with one of their best players, and suddenly a landslide upset occurs. Also one of their best forwards slapped a sponsor at the season launch causing more controversy. They clearly still half pissed from the off-season.

Its pretty easy to spot in hindsight I guess.

Was more than chuffed to see the Dogs win. I tipped the Cowboys, so the Dogs winning was a really good bonus killer for Round 1. I'm in around 20 tipping competitions and the last thing I want to see is a swag of perfect rounds when I'm already dead.

Cheers

[Makybe]

This weeks bet is - Canberra Raiders (-6.5) @ 1.92 - I think they'll crush the Roosters like grapes

Results
Bets - 1
Outlay - $100
Return - $142
% Profit - 42%

Cheers

[Makybe]

Season still sorting itself out, few odd results occurring ... par for the course

This weeks bet is Manly Sea Eagles (-12.5) @ 1.92 to beat the Panthers ... In fact, I wish I could give the Panthers 30 start cause the Eagles will win by a LOT

Results
Bets - 2
Outlay - $200
Return - $142
% Loss - 29%

Cheers