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The best post I have read for a long time. No joke.
Its about making the decisions which make you happy, and winning £s is not the only thing which makes you happy.
Sort of along those lines at the end of BB10 I got a "tip" that Rodrigo would be going out 5th and the odds were about 4s, through the day I put more and more on it at betfair until I had about £2k profit should it come in. Just before the show started the odds had come in and I realised it is a bit rash to bet that much on a "tip" and it was still around 3s and I bottled it and layed off for no loss or a couple of hundred if he came 5th. He came 5th. I was gutted, really really cross about it. Even though I had made a few hundred £s I honestly would have been happier of he had have not gone 5th. I would have made no money BUT I would have been smug and thought I was such a Pro not taking silly risks and hedging my bets etc etc. I wouldnt mind the £0 profit I would have been very pleased with myself. As it was I made quite a few £s but I was Pissed off about the fact I bottled it when I had £2k at my fingertips.
Thats a bit off on a tangent, but overall the point is I relate to what you are saying it is not just about the money you win or lose. It is also were you happy/upset that you made the decison.
Have a plan and stick to it
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I can't recall recall reading so many bogus statements on a bonus-orientated board in a long time. No joke.
One of us must be wrong.
 Originally Posted by Super_Dash
No doubt playing optimally is best long run, but on any given card turn irrational decisions can be beneficial. Playing the "gamble" feature on a slot even though it didn't count towards the WR, but because I felt I was getting low on cash anyways, sticking on a 12 vs 2 face up cos I can smell a 10 coming, double down on 9 vs 7 and just hope I get a high card or he hasn't got a 10, it's the impromptu decision making what can make an hour of black jack enjoyable.
I think you should stick with behavioural psychology, as you clearly don't understand gambling. When you misplay a hand you lose money, whether or not the outcome is beneficial. And vice versa. Do you not understand this? It is not the outcome that matters, but the play.
Why is taking orders less fun than completing a task using your own initiative?
Who's taking orders? You choose to play correctly or not. That is no analogy.
The negative utility I get from straying from strategy and losing when I have an inkling, is far less than the negative utility I get from sticking to strategy only to find out my inkling was right.
What you're saying is, you're happier feeling a like a plank having behaved like a plank, than you are are feeling like a plank when you've behaved correctly. But of course, you'll feel more of a plank behaving incorrectly - and as such defeat the purpose - because you'll lose more than needed.
It's an interesting insight into the psychology of a gambler, but nothing to do with AP.
Sorry for the essay, but some people just can't understand that this advantage play isn't *ALL* about making the most money.
Some people can't understand that the world is round.
If you want, you can call sheep molesting "advantage play", but the definition is nonetheless exctracting positive ev, and long-term profit, from gambling endeavours. Your own definition, ie. mostly thus but occasionally reserving the right to be a plank and make less money - is noone's definition but yours. You're simply gambling the way you like to.
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Premium Member
*Sigh*
If I double down on 4 against K and my hand wins. I win money, not lose money.When I misplay a hand and I win, it is beneficial for me I don't lose money. Your acting as if the hands I'm mis-playing are that drastic, as illustrated they aren't . If i'm losing so much money from all of this and am still over £10k up for the year from Casino's, why am I going to complain? Maybe I would of been £10070 up for giving away that extra 0.7% house edge, who really cares? Certainly not me.
Who's taking orders? I am if play a certain way simply because the strategy table says I should.
I should stick to Psychology? I'm a statistician, not a psychologist. Was just using that theory to illustrate a point. A point which I might add, you missed completely.
If I am still extracting long term value and long term profit, just slightly less than is possible, am I still not by definition advantage playing?
For me, making £'s is important, but at what cost? I'm not going to do something which I find incredibly boring and make money, I value the free time I have too much, so I opt for a compromise in the middle. If I am indeed "simply gambling the way I like to", then i'm happy to continue doing so, I find that prospect much better than the idea of "gambling the way I don't like to".
I REALLY don't want to have a back and forth conversation in which I try and defend the concept that money isn't the only thing that some players value, and you try and brand me an idiot for that way of thinking. So i'm going to leave it at this, and if you still don't get what i'm saying we'll have to agree to disagree.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools, cos people from a distance can't tell who is who ~ Jay Z
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 Originally Posted by caruso
One of us must be wrong.
Not necessarily, my favourite colour is blue, yours may be green. That doesnt make blue better than green they are just different, different best for different people and there is no right or wrong colours.
This is also my last post on the matter, but for the record overall I agree with SuperDash more, it is not all about the money it is about being happy with your choices regardless of the outcomes.
Have a plan and stick to it
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 Originally Posted by Super_Dash
I REALLY don't want to have a back and forth conversation in which I try and defend the concept that money isn't the only thing that some players value, and you try and brand me an idiot for that way of thinking. So i'm going to leave it at this, and if you still don't get what i'm saying we'll have to agree to disagree.
Money is the only issue in AP. Other issues may be involved in your gambling decisions, but not this one.
If I double down on 4 against K and my hand wins. I win money, not lose money.When I misplay a hand and I win, it is beneficial for me I don't lose money.
The contrary is true, this is not. It's not a concept all that easy to understand, though. Most gamblers understand nothing about gambling.
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It isn't his buying luxury items from his bankroll (sub-optimal play for "fun") I take exception to. That's all well and good. It's the bogus statements that need pointing out.
No doubt playing optimally is best long run, but on any given card turn irrational decisions can be beneficial. Playing the "gamble" feature on a slot even though it didn't count towards the WR, but because I felt I was getting low on cash anyways, sticking on a 12 vs 2 face up cos I can smell a 10 coming, double down on 9 vs 7 and just hope I get a high card or he hasn't got a 10, it's the impromptu decision making what can make an hour of black jack enjoyable.
He talks about his apparent precogniscent ability ("sticking on a 12 vs 2 face up cos I can smell a 10 coming"), and that incorrect play can be "beneficial". Even if the crystal ball stuff is just rank nonsense, yes, I can understand how he can perceive the "benficial" bit to be true; however, it simply is not. The result of the hand is irrelevant. If you hit 11 v. 6 rather than doubling, you lose money irrespective of the outcome of the hand.
If he'd just said "I do this 'cos I like gambling", he'd have been spot on. The thing is, many gamblers do this, trying to concoct rational justifications for irrational actions. Books are written and bought on the same basis - John Patrick has made a fortune out of his BS snake oil, and there are many more besides. It's all best avoided.
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Premium Member
 Originally Posted by nixonite
And Dash, shame on you for having that sig and then not adhering to it 
Alas I have been publically shamed!
A wise man told me don't argue with fools, cos people from a distance can't tell who is who ~ Jay Z
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