
Can we just say I was right? I was wasn't I?
Is there a graph where somebody is not following the line? In the real World it is true that you will simply make the total amount of +EV you take part in, you wont make more or less, in the long run (not infinity though) you will just make the +EV.
Have a plan and stick to it

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Originally Posted by Andy
Can we just say I was right? I was wasn't I?
I think so yes. Trouble is this debate can go on and on. But the way I understand it  "the law of large numbers" states that, as you get to infinity you should be on track with EV.

Premium Member
I'll agree that you'll tend to the EV percentage wise, not that you'll track it in a gravitational sense.

Premium Member
Originally Posted by M1ghtyDuck
I'll agree that you'll tend to the EV percentage wise, not that you'll track it in a gravitational sense.
Am I right in saying, Mighty, that you are trying to get accross the point that, just because you have a run of negative variance, does not mean that you will then experience positive variance?
If so, then I agree with that. Using the flipping coin analogy for instance, if I flip 10 x and land on heads every time, then the probability of hitting a head on the 11th spin is still 50%. A coin (or probability in general) has no memory.
But the fact remains that, over time things will even out. For instance, of I flip a coin 1,000,000 times, it is very likely that approx 50% of those will be heads.
It's a really counter intuitive subject, and one that is very difficult to explain.

Premium Member
Exactly that. Similar to how, if you were following a straight line down the middle of the road and got knocked 2 feet sideways but kept going straight, you'd never get back to the middle of the road  but if someone from space looked at you they'd be so zoomed out that they'd think you had.
Taking your coin flipping example, if your first 10 were heads and you kept flipping till 1,000,000, I wouldn't expect you to get 500,000 heads and 500,000 tails. I'd expect you to get 500,010 heads and 499,990 tails. VERY close to an EV of 50% of each, but not.
We're on the same page I'm sure.

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No, i'm afraid we're not, sorry  I was merely getting accross the point that a run of negative variance does not automatically mean positive variance will immediately follow.
But over the long term, EV will even itself out, particularly as the line reaches infinity.

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Originally Posted by Landprofits
No, i'm afraid we're not, sorry  I was merely getting accross the point that a run of negative variance does not automatically mean positive variance will immediately follow.
But over the long term, EV will even itself out, particularly as the line reaches infinity.
Good point.
The notion that our wins should "catch up" with EV is known in gambling literature as the "fallacy of the maturity of the chances". It has lead to the creation of thousands of rubbish gambling systems based on betting more after a loss. They don't work, obviously.
In truth what happens is that negative variance is not followed by positive variance, it is just that, over a large enough sample size, the effect of one day's negative variance becomes insignificant.
It often helps with this type of discussion to get away from pure theory and give a practical illustration:
Say you play one day and lose 5K. A disaster for most people obviously. Now, over the next five years you play promotions worth a million dollars in EV. Your mathematically expected net profit is going to be $995,000. You shouldn't expect to get an extra 5K back above your EV.
But ask yourself, at the end of those five years, do you really give a shit that you lose 5K on one day in that five years? No. 5K is now half of a thousandth percent of your bankroll, small change down the back of the sofa.
Your daily fluctuations simply become less and less important the more trials you put in.
For this reason, I try and think of gambling opportunities purely in terms of EV and risk. In the longterm the daily flux just doesn't matter at all for all practical purposes unless your bankroll is threatened by ruin at some point. Of course, after a bad losing streak it is very difficult to think this way, you need the serenity of Buddha, but it is good idea to aspire to this ideal.

Premium Member
Originally Posted by Landprofits
No, i'm afraid we're not, sorry  I was merely getting accross the point that a run of negative variance does not automatically mean positive variance will immediately follow.
But over the long term, EV will even itself out, particularly as the line reaches infinity.
I'm sure we are. A negative variance has no bearing on the rest of the variance, so you can only expect it to be following EV (albeit parallel) from then onwards. That is what your first part says.
That negative varaince blip will always be there, it's just that as you do more and more offers that blip will become smaller and smaller until it's arguably negligable. That is what your second part says.
I think at this point we're all saying the same thing apart from cloverleaves and followers (it's a cult! ), but the manner in which we're saying it is confusing each other.

Premium Member
Originally Posted by Andy
Can we just say I was right? I was wasn't I?
Is there a graph where somebody is not following the line? In the real World it is true that you will simply make the total amount of +EV you take part in, you wont make more or less, in the long run (not infinity though) you will just make the +EV.
You are not correct no! It's absurd to suggest your EV will track your actual in the real world. It simply does not work like this.
In real life your EV mix is complicated and subject to a lot of fluctuation. Your EV/actual relationship will depend on your playing style, type of offers taken, stake size etc.
I know a guy who is a good player who lost his whole EV one year which was a tad extreme. I myself went a year only earning one third of my EV. That was testing but I did eventually recover. I have heard from one or two others that this one third ratio can persist for a long time period.
I alos know a guy who has played a lot over three years and has been substantially over EV.
So any idea that EV tracks actual in a linear pattern is simply not realistic. There will be people on here who are getting caned, extreme results have to happen to some players. I KNOW it is possible to deviate from EV for long periods of time. That's the way it is.
Anyone who thinks EV is closely related to actual in a two year period say is badly misinformed IMO. If you get casual about EV then it will bite you. Don't rely on it to pay the rent.

Well we can agree to disagree on it then.
I think I am right, I think experience and actual results show im right, I think a lot of the other points made in this thread are correct and its all been an interesting read. At times we are arguing slightly different things and it does become incredibly nit picking and word play. If you do not think you will make the EV dont gamble at online Casinos hoping to profit then its entirely your choice and no skin off anybody elses nose. I think I will so I am and do. After this post, im not commenting again it could go on forever and really I think we do all think the same we are just saying it differently or arguing a different point. I think the statement that, in the long run over enough offers (1000+) you will not deviate significantly from the EV line is true though. Look at it analytically with the following line of thought...
Q = What is the reason/why do you think you will ever consistantly be able to make more than the EV?
A = There is no reason.
Q = What is the reason/why do you think you will ever consistantly make under the EV?
A = (You may not play perfect strategy, but assuming you do play perfectly) There is no reason.
With those premises, if there is no reason for you to be over, and no reason for you to be under, the only option left is that you will therefore follow the EV line. Simples.
Have a plan and stick to it
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