Tracking my Variance - Is Andy right?

[zenmaster]

Cheers Digi very interesting graph you seem to have done some good offers between 15-25 very sharp increase in the line. Offers 25-30 seemed to set you back a bit and you have been holding fairly steady since then. Do remember one thing though you have made £3600 from those 50 offers and that i think is the key thing to remember.

I should be posting more results of my own by the end of the week, i am due to make a sizable withdraw.

[My_User_Name]

Digi, could you please post which offers did you do? (just name the casinos, please)

[Andy]

From the results so far it appears to be slightly under the EV but you can see it basically trends the same way, that was more the point. I can see what the earlier post means about past results not effecting the future and I agree, I just meant more that as the "expected value" of each offer is just that, the "expected" amount, if you ever get more than that is was goodluck and if you ever get less it was badluck and over time and enough offers these will cancel each other out and you will, more or less, just stick to the EV line.

I still think you will do in the long run.

[jopre]

The law of averages only works with an infinite number.

[zenmaster]

A few issues at the moment which might delay i am trying to find as accurate data as possible on payouts for certain slots, if anyone knows where microgaming post data on payouts id love to see it. Not yet been able to find it otherwise i will just wing it and run my slots data with a 5% house edge until such a time i can find something more accurate.

[Fella]

Maybe PM KasinoKing, I would have thought he'll either know or know how you can find out?

[KasinoKing]

Maybe PM KasinoKing, I would have thought he'll either know or know how you can find out?

I have the % return of just a few MG slots here. (Far right column).
They were calculated by a member at another forum "Zoozie" using a simulator he wrote.
You can try it yourself here:- 5-Reel Slot Analyzer
I don't know for sure that it's 100% accurate, but it seems to be.
You need the reel layouts of course, of which I only have about 25 on my site.
I haven't done them myself because personally I don't think the return % (give or take 1%) is that important when it comes to slots, due to the high variance. I am happy to assume most MG slots are between 95-96%.

A couple of other softwares actually publish the returns of their slots, I have lists of them all here:-
Rival Slots
WagerWorks Slots

I hope some of the above is useful!
KK

PS: I moved this thread from "Day to day life" to "Casino strategies".

[zenmaster]

Thanks for the info i think i am fairly happy awarding microgaming a 4.5% house edge on slots, results should be posted before the weekend.

[zenmaster]

As promised i have added the new updated chart.

Basically as some of you know i hit ladbrokes hard over the last 2 weeks doing 14 promotions in the casino in total the flat line is basically because of the oriental bonus scratch cards promo being worth approx £1 of EV+ i only did them to clear my bonuses for the SUB and the recent poker bonus.

The end result is i made about £260 on those promotions and looking at the figures as a whole the amount of wagering i did and the house edges of those games i lost about 5% of what i wagered which since i played slots 95% of the time is right in line with what you would normally expect.

[Landprofits]

Is it time for another update yet Zen?