
Originally Posted by bigblue
im 100% convinced that some casinos defo do cheat & their softwares are rigged...
Really? 100%? Its possible "some" might have/do but I think it is fantasticly unlikely.
Originally Posted by bigblue
altho noone could ever prove this
Well the guys who did the programing to fix it all could say they did it. But none ever have.
Originally Posted by bigblue
its well known that a common strategy for sticky bonuses is to double up on the 1st hand.... so if the software is set up so that most 1st hands lose ....
Possibly. I have not noticed or read of this happening in practice though. That may be an interesting thread, just anecdotal evidence, but each time we start a new casino session did the first hand win/lose/push. Just make a mental note of the first hand result. Then we all say so. And we would see what % of first hands win in practice, if less than expected over a large sample you may be onto something.
Have a plan and stick to it

Originally Posted by KasinoKing
It is totally normal to think like this; "the casino CAN cheat me, so why wouldn't they?"
Another point of view is "the casino doesn't NEED to cheat, so why would they?"
All casino games from Blackjack to Keno have a house edge  a builtin guarantee that they WILL win in the long run. The longer you play a game (i.e. the more you wager), the more money the casino makes. If they had cheating software people would be able to detect it eventually and if this proof got out to the world noone would play that software again. The casinos wouldn't make any money & they would have to close.
Why would they do anything which would risk their guaranteed income for life?
KK
LOL
I know it is in my mind.
But the downs always outweigh the ups (for me).
I don't mean to be funny about it.
Cheers

Originally Posted by bigblue
im 100% convinced that some casinos defo do cheat & their softwares are rigged... altho noone could ever prove this
its well known that a common strategy for sticky bonuses is to double up on the 1st hand.... so if the software is set up so that most 1st hands lose ....
This is what I was trying to say really.
In BJ I think they start with losing hands before it picks up and evens out IMO.
Also I think they are biased to first roll ends on black (more  obviously not ALWAYS).
More people think put it on red IMO.

Hello,
I'm reading my first time of double up approach to casino SUBs.
Actually, I won't try it, as I'm not very comfortable with this idea (and I have seriously doubts about this strategy approaching offers). I know that EV can be +EV when bonus offers are considered. However I see no possibility to turn any EV offer (say, with large WR) into a +EV offer. Surely I must be too naive for that, so I would appreciate any help on that topic.
The way I understand the doubleup approach on your first bet with full stake and bonus on a near 50/50 shot. When you loose, there is no WR left you can do. When you win, you have doubled your amount you need to stake to the same WR (minus first bet) and come out positive.
Now the reasoning is, that in the long term half your bets will loose, and half your bets will win. So you would have the same total bonus, on half the WR.
I know human mind plays tricks when it comes to probability, but I don't think this will turn any EV offer (i.e. wagering a 100% bonus 40x at 36/37 roulette) into an +EV offer.
For that I have two independent reasonings, both resulting that it won't work even long term.
First reasoning (short term): Each casino is statistically independent. Therefore a casino A's offer (EV) cannot be influenced (in any expectation value) by any other casino B, even if it gives a strong +EV offers. You are always better off refusing A's offer, and stick to the +EV offer alone.
Second reasoning (long term): On the long term you won't win exactly half of your doubleup bets. A casino won't let you double up in a exact 50/50 shot. Probability of hitting is always lower (if they double your stakes on hit). Then in the long run, you loose more doubleupbets than you win. Hence you also loose money long term.
I can only think of such an strategy to work out, if two casino are NOT entirely independent. I.e. when you find two casinos which share the very same roulette table (and results on both casinos are always the same). Yes, then you can try to double up.
This is actually the approach for matched betting, where your roulette table is some sport's game. Both books have to agree on the very outcome of that game, and hence you will enforce winning on one side, and loosing on the other side.
But as casinos are statistically independent, you can end up with winning on both sides or loosing on both sides as well with same probability as winning on one casino, and loosing on another casino. This simply kills the strategy of doubling up on EV offers.
Did I miss something ?

Premium Member
Originally Posted by MangoJ
I know human mind plays tricks when it comes to probability, but I don't think this will turn any EV offer (i.e. wagering a 100% bonus 40x at 36/37 roulette) into an +EV offer.
For that I have two independent reasonings, both resulting that it won't work even long term.
First reasoning (short term): Each casino is statistically independent. Therefore a casino A's offer (EV) cannot be influenced (in any expectation value) by any other casino B, even if it gives a strong +EV offers. You are always better off refusing A's offer, and stick to the +EV offer alone.
Second reasoning (long term): On the long term you won't win exactly half of your doubleup bets. A casino won't let you double up in a exact 50/50 shot. Probability of hitting is always lower (if they double your stakes on hit). Then in the long run, you loose more doubleupbets than you win. Hence you also loose money long term.
You don't need to casinos to make playing a 40x prewager bonus on roulette EV+
If you played a £100 bonus normally, you receive £100 bonus, but need to wager £4000. The house edge is 1/37 and so in playing £4000 will leave lose £4000/37 on avarage ie £108.11 . Thus there is an EV of £8.11
Consider if you double up and win:
You have bet £200 of the WR, and you have £400. You bet the remaining £3800 normally and you lose £3800/37 = £102.70 to leave you with £297.30 of which you put in £100 so you have made £197.30.
If you double up and lose you have lost £100.
The expected Value = 19/37 x 100 + 18/37 x £197.30 = £44.63
You don't need to do 2 bonuses to make the EV positive. It's just this is a high variance approach. If you were only ever going to do it once you might win or you might lose
Point 1) You are right Casinos are statistically independant. If you do 2 of them the following are the possibilities:
Lose both : probabilty =26.37% , Loss=£200
Win one : PRobability = 49.96% Profit = £97.30
Win both: Probability = 23.67% Profit = £394.60
As you can see this is a less traumatic option than just doing one. This is a high risk strategy if you do it once. If you do it every time you will make more money. If you do it 10 times the probability of being down drops to 19.5%. No one is saying do it twice and you will win one lose one, it's just you'd have to be a bit more unlucky to lose.
As an aside the reason you have increased the EV is because you have decreased the average WR. This is now £4000 if you win the first bet at Probability =18/37 and £200 if you lose the first bet. It is then a £100 bonus for an average WR = 18/37 x 4000 + 19/37 x £200 = £2048. A roulette bonus that pays £100 bonus for playing £2048 is clearly EV+.

Thanks for your kind reply. Have to admit it looks beautiful on first sight.
However, let us put me in the role of the casino, I offer you a 100$=100% bonus on 40x rollover at my 36/37 roulette table.
I know me (= the casino) has an 1/37 edge on this table on any stake that is put on, regardless of size or betting pattern.
Now you take the offer (as I understand you will gladly), and I give you 100$. There are two possibilities (with different probability of course):
(A) you play thru the WR, putting 4000$ in total on my table. I have the edge and collect 1/37 = 108.10$ on average.
(B) you bust out before completing WR. Regardless of your total stake you have put on my table, you are bust. So I collect 200$.
Whether scenario (A) or (B) comes true, I keep more than 100$ from your play. Although I don't know exact probabilities for (A) or (B), I know that there is no hidden case (C), and in both cases I do make a profit, hence in total I will make a profit (on average).
As all previous games are statistically independent from any future games, I will offer you the exact offer again (and again ...), and will make profit on average on every offer you take.
Now my dilemma is: We cannot make both (casino and player) a profit (on average) from such an offer, as money does not appear from nowhere.
So who is the fish here ? Player or casino ? I (honestly) cannot solve it, I will need to spend a few nights of thought about your reasoning.

Senior Member
case (A) is wrong, the casino didnt make $108 as your first bet was to double your whole balance, and the casino lost $200 on that single bet. So $200 profit, plus $100 bonus, minus $108 House Edge leaves the casino down $192.
case (B) is wrong, as $100 of the player's loss is the casino's own money, so the casino only makes $100.

With (B) i just meant that casino collects 200 (from which 100 is pure profit)  to keep it consistent with collecting 108 from fullfilling WR (8 profit).
But YES you are absolutely right with your comment on (A), I didn't see this. This pretty much solves the puzzle for me I was struggling with. You are perfectly right, if you make it thru WR, you must have had won your first bet. Under this condition, I can only play my edge on the remaining WR.... now it is (at least) consistent. Thank you !
Now I just have to figure out where the value is coming from. I know, not being forced to play thru WR has a huge value. For me the mind trick seems to understand that this position has still value although you are already bust at the same time.
Will surely play around with numbers, and test it on simulations...

I have thought about this a little bit. It seems that the value of this offer does not entirely come from the bonus itself (if the bonus were given after fullfilling WR, offer would be EV) but from the potential winnings outweighting WR losses.
Then it seems for pure EV one should try to triple up (bet on Dozens) or even further. For Roulette the ultimate EV would be to bet on Numbers  then 91,82$ can be extracted from an 100$ bonus.
Of course you would need a massive float. But HOW massive ?
For the offer above (100%=100$ bonus on 4000$ WR) on european roulette, this question I tackled by the ansatz of maximizing EV(log(bankroll)) instead of EV(bankroll). I think the logapproach is correct, at this is the expectation value for bankroll growth.
Below float of 315$: Bet on Double Dozen (i.e. 50$ on 112 and 50$ on 2536): EV = 28.12$.
Below float of 700$: Bet on Color (or Odds/Even): EV = 44.63$.
Below float of 2,508$: Bet on Dozen (i.e. 1324 or Column): EV = 61.29$.
Below float of 8,715$: Bet on Six Line: EV = 77.94$
Below float of 18,329$: Bet on Corner: EV = 83.49$
Below float of 38,162$: Bet on Street: EV = 86.27$
Below float of 119,092$: Bet on Split: EV = 89.04$
Above 119,092$: Bet on Number: EV = 91.82$
Unless you are already a millionare, don't bet your 500$ bonus on #13.
P.S.: I know from reading T&Cs that roulette is often not counting towards WR. But since Odds range spans almost any desired range, one could try to double up on roulette, and then work on the WR on other games.

Originally Posted by MangoJ
one could try to double up on roulette, and then work on the WR on other games.
Yes that is a good idea BUT for just that reason a lot of Casinos have stopped you doing it, the most recent time I saw it was the BetAtHome reload excluded "Balance Betting" which I assumed meant what you suggest. A lot now have it in the T&Cs of the Sign Up Bonuses that you cannot wager even a certain % of your balance let alone all of it on one hand/spin/whatever. They have stopped that happening because as I think you now can see/agree it is a +EV move by the player.
Have a plan and stick to it
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