
I just did the betfair casino welcome offers, I would really appreciate if someone would check or comment on that, in case I approached it wrong somehow.
My bankroll is 5k, and I decided to take some MB income into casino bonus abuse.
First offer was 100% on 40x(D+B) WR. As I didn't know the maximum bet size accepted on roulette, I took the offer for 60$+60$. (in demo play max was 120 on my target bet).
I figured out (of course beforehand) that a double up would be EV5$, and a triple up EV+15$. However I decided to go for Six Line EV+36$, and Kelly allows a max betsize of 340$ given those odds and bankroll. So 60$ should be fine.
First reload was then a 50% bonus on 40x(D+B) WR, which I took for 80$+40$, heading again for Six Line (as I still believed that 120$ was max bet size). EV+16$  but also the lowest odds with positive EV. Kelly allowed 155$. Looked ok for me.
Second reload again a 50% bonus, now I didn't forget to check max bet size (was 5k), so I was heading for max bonus and took the offer with 100$+50$. EV+20$ with Kelly allowance 155$.
Odds where 6.0 (6.16 fair) on Six Line, and of course I busted out each time.
Only mistake I could find is not maximizing out bonus amount (as I didn't know max bet size allowed). Are there any comments on game play ?

Why were you playing roulette? che is 0.82% he and count's 100% towards wr.
You were playing to a 6xd+b target on your first bonus? And on 50% bonuses as well!?
You'd have done better to take the VIP bonus. 50% to £500 with 60xb wagering. Could have ground out on che with a minimal chance of loss and still an ev £250ish.
There was nothing wrong with the play itself, if the bonus had been roulette only you would have a good strat, but it is worth seeing what other games options there are.
Also the bonus as you understood it wasn't very good with much easier ones out there.
If I was you I would limit your high variance play until you have a bit more experience with casinos. Also you can ask about your strat here first before firing in.

I don't have knowledge how to play ANY game. Surely I will need some learn some over christmas holidays. However the offer would have not be available on the next day, so I had to make a choice.
I rather like to stick to games I understand (even with slots I don't know house edge, not to speak about variance). In this sense it was roulette only. But I should have chosen French roulette.

Generally you want to play the following games, with the top being the most desirable and decreasing in desirability as you get down the list:
Blackjack, he:~0.4%
Jack or Better Video Poker, he:0.46%  want play multi hand to lower variance where it is full play.
Oasis Poker, he 0.47%  netent and vuetec are the only softwares to offer it
Texas Hold'em/Casino Hold'em, he 0.53% and 0.82%  pretty complicated strat but can still be played at a lot of places.
Baccarat, he 1.06%  can hardly ever play it for the wr but good for doubling up.
French Roulette, he 1.35%
Other video poker games, varying he.
3 card poker, 2% he
Single zero roulette, 2.7% he
Slots, 2.5%10% he.
Many other games out there but that should do for a while.

excuse my ignornace but what is the difference between french roulette & single zero roulette

Premium Member
Originally Posted by bigblue
excuse my ignornace but what is the difference between french roulette & single zero roulette
If the ball lands on zero you get half of your stakes back on outside even money bets hence the lower house edge.

Hiya,
First, thanks to everyone who commented in this thread  made a very useful read and certainly lots to think about... Feel like I've just started MBing again and have just read for half an hour and have a whirlpool of stuff swimming around in my head!
Anyway, basic reason for posting is that I've just started casinos (emphasis on just) and saw people mentioning doubling up, +/ EV, HE etc. and decided to investigate a bit more.
Stuff I've done so far  read through a fair amount of beatbonuses stuff. Done the Ladbrokes offer (got £14.84 profit from £10 postwager which was pretty lucky on blackjack just betting £1/hand with 1 hand at a time) and Will Hill Live Casino (got £17.65 profit from £25 100% prewager playing baccarat at £2 a hand WR = £200). So not doing too badly.
I have some serious questions about doubling up though.
1. The first I ever heard of making money at casinos was the old "Bet 1p on red, if it wins, you get 1p profit. If it loses, bet 2p on red. If it wins, you get 4p (1p profit). If it loses, bet 4p on red, with 8 p profit if it wins. Continue to do this until you win, and then start again from 1p".
Obviously the tactic in this is to get a 1p profit each time. So you could get £10 profit over 1000 "1p, 2p..." sequences. Great! Trouble is the time when there is an unlucky streak. 1p, 2p, 4p, 8p, 16p, 32p etc. Exponential growth. Suddenly the £10 you've just won, plus you're deposit, has gone in one single piece of "bad luck", which given its probability, was bound to happen over time.
This is the first problem I've got with doubling up  "1 will win, 1 will lose". Fine. Until 5 lose in a row. So you've lost £500. Then 10 lose in a row, and half of the float has gone. "But the next 10 will win!" For me, this is a serious problem  my float isn't massive. The probability of 20 casino double ups losing in a row is tiny, just the same as the example above. But if (when) it does happen, surely it would just wipe out everything you've just earned? Better not to play it safe, and have the tiny probability be that you lose your deposit at 1 casino?
2. 2nd question is to do with doubling up actually increasing EV, because I'm not sure it does. I do, however, completely agree that it increases your profit per hour. That is probably a massive advantage as, and I've noticed already, betting tiny amounts on baccarat hands gets very very tedious.
What I see is that you are saying there is a small gain in EV when you double up compared to when you just do the WR with tiny hands. All of the previous examples on page 2 of this thread show this. But, as someone quite rightly said earlier, the chances of you doubling up aren't 50%, but maybe 48/49%.
Therefore doesn't the following happen? By constantly doubling up, lets say on each one you get £10 extra EV compared to when you hadn't doubled up, you build up a nice £240 extra EV over 24 bonuses. Then along comes the 25th bonus. Because you only have a 48% chance of winning a double up, this one, you lose. And probability says that this one doesn't have a symmetrical winning partner. Depending on the offer, you've just lost your nice £240 extra EV, or at least its now worth £100 or less.
Is this right, or have I messed up? Surely doubling up makes you +EV in the short run (moneywise not profit/hour wise) but exactly the same in the long run (or at least not as +EV as everyone is making out?)
3. I'm assuming that doubling up does work and that there are answers to these questions  otherwise noone would do it?
Last question is where the cutoff point is. Would you do it on 20% 25xB? What about a 30% 30xD+B? Or does it not matter at all? Assuming this is subjective but all opinions are appreciated.
Sorry this is long! Trying to put all the questions in my head down on paper, and its not easy to do in a short space.
Any advice would be much appreciated. Thanks in advance,
Jake

Your edge in "doubling up" is not to double up YOUR money. Half time you win, half time you loose. On a fair bet this is EV=0.
The edge is in "doubling up" your BONUS money. Again, Half time you win, half time you loose. If you loose your bonus money, no loss.
If you double your bonus money you have a significantly higher chance to survive wagering requirements with a profit.
Put it together: On a fair bet your own money part makes EV=0, your bonus money part makes EV>0, hence you're looking into profit.
You can see a SNR sportbet bonus the same way. Completing WR is equivalent to loosing the stake. How do you gain profit from a SNR bet ? Right, bet it on long odds and match it elsewhere.
The very profit comes from the long odds bet (see it not as doubleup, but 10timesup).
The matched bet will usually NOT make you profit, in fact it will cost you money. The only task for the matched bet is to eliminate variance.
On casino you don't have the luxury of a matched bet. In principle 10timesup would be still more EV than doublingup. However you don't like variance (because you need a large supply of such bets and a large bankroll). So you usually stick to doubleup or tripleup.

Premium Member
Originally Posted by jakethepeg
Hiya,
1. The first I ever heard of making money at casinos was the old "Bet 1p on red, if it wins, you get 1p profit. If it loses, bet 2p on red. If it wins, you get 4p (1p profit). If it loses, bet 4p on red, with 8 p profit if it wins. Continue to do this until you win, and then start again from 1p".
Obviously the tactic in this is to get a 1p profit each time. So you could get £10 profit over 1000 "1p, 2p..." sequences. Great! Trouble is the time when there is an unlucky streak. 1p, 2p, 4p, 8p, 16p, 32p etc. Exponential growth. Suddenly the £10 you've just won, plus you're deposit, has gone in one single piece of "bad luck", which given its probability, was bound to happen over time.
What you are referring to above is the flawed martingale system which has nothing to do with doubling up strategy. Doubling uses the value of the bonus as leverage to increase EV.
This is the first problem I've got with doubling up  "1 will win, 1 will lose". Fine. Until 5 lose in a row. So you've lost £500. Then 10 lose in a row, and half of the float has gone. "But the next 10 will win!" For me, this is a serious problem  my float isn't massive. The probability of 20 casino double ups losing in a row is tiny, just the same as the example above. But if (when) it does happen, surely it would just wipe out everything you've just earned? Better not to play it safe, and have the tiny probability be that you lose your deposit at 1 casino?
I think I made the comment of 1 win/1 lose, that was not meant to be taken literally, it was a statistical comment in order to illustrate how doubling up would increase EV in the long run. You are quite right to be concerned about your float though, such strategies are high variance and not for beginners/limited floats. Only today I witnesseed a roulette game where the ball landed on red 12 times. The chances of that happening are 0.01756%.
2. 2nd question is to do with doubling up actually increasing EV, because I'm not sure it does.
It does. It does seem somewhat counter intuitive but it has been explained in this thread numerous times.
What I see is that you are saying there is a small gain in EV when you double up compared to when you just do the WR with tiny hands. All of the previous examples on page 2 of this thread show this. But, as someone quite rightly said earlier, the chances of you doubling up aren't 50%, but maybe 48/49%.
48.64% on single zero roulette, the chances would vary depending on the game. 50% is used as an approximation as most games selected for a double up are close to even money.
Therefore doesn't the following happen? By constantly doubling up, lets say on each one you get £10 extra EV compared to when you hadn't doubled up, you build up a nice £240 extra EV over 24 bonuses. Then along comes the 25th bonus. Because you only have a 48% chance of winning a double up, this one, you lose. And probability says that this one doesn't have a symmetrical winning partner. Depending on the offer, you've just lost your nice £240 extra EV, or at least its now worth £100 or less.
I think you have misinterpereted what doubling up means. Doubling up is not martingale  you only make one bet in attempt to double up your balance, and then grind out the rest of the wagering. As Andy pointed out in this thread somewhere, this practice is now excluded in the terms of many casinos who will restrict the size of bets on particular games, or put terms in place which exclude "balance betting".
Is this right, or have I messed up? Surely doubling up makes you +EV in the short run (moneywise not profit/hour wise) but exactly the same in the long run (or at least not as +EV as everyone is making out?)
No, it's +EV in the long run. You would need to fully understand it and have a sizeable float to even consider it though.
Last question is where the cutoff point is. Would you do it on 20% 25xB? What about a 30% 30xD+B? Or does it not matter at all? Assuming this is subjective but all opinions are appreciated.
It's entirely subjective down to the players risk profile. 20% bonus with a 25x B WR would be a huge player edge, you would be unlikely to find it. However, what you may want to consider is that the less the bonus is in relation to the cash deposit, the less leverage it gives you.

Thanks for the replies. Much appreciated
1. Yep I realise it's got nothing to do with doubling up, just using it as an example like the 0.01756% roulette wheel spins as you did. Think my concerns, as you say, are valid, and that the only answer is to have a big (to be completely safe, infinite) float. Plus there is always the chance that you would never win at a casino, which I guess is why casino bonuses aren't labelled "riskfree" in the same way as MBing is. MBing you only lose if you screw up. Casinos you lose if you are just very very unlucky.
2. Think I probably just need to read the thread over again. I understand why it's +EV to double up in the short run (all the examples are in the short run on page 2, nothing talks about the long run at all).
I think my point is probably valid, just that it's not noticeable. Take a hypothetical world where probability comes true (i.e. if you flip heads, you are "due" a tails next turn). If the odds are taken to be 49.5/50.5 to the house (standard blackjack HE yes?), say, then statistically, you will win at 99 casinos, and lose at 101 for every 200 offers.
Lets say all the casinos are a standard £100, 100%, 40xB (WR=£4000). By doubling up compared to grinding out, you make an extra £10 per offer (see your post 21 on this thread, which I understand).
In the 99 offers you win, and the 99 symmetrical offers you lose, you therefore make an extra £990 compared to grinding. But there are 2 casinos in that 200 where you lose the deposit due to the house edge and don't receive a symmetrical doubling up win. Assuming all the bonuses are the same, you therefore lose £200. So +EV is £790 for doubling up over the 200 casinos.
That was my point, which I think is correct, though please shout if I'm wrong. My next point would then be that if the bonuses are all different, you could be lucky, or very unlucky. If the 2 extra casinos you lost at involved much bigger deposits compared to the rest of the bonuses you were doing (i.e. £500 x 2 in this case), then you should end up EV due to doubling up compared to grinding.
3. Sorry, I just picked numbers out of my head that sounded vaguely right, though clearly that one wasn't! Is the general rule then the bigger the percentage and bigger the WR, the better it is to double up? For lower WR, it probably isn't worth risking losing (may as well take advantage of the low WR) and for lower percentages, the deposit amount you are risking in relation to the bonus amount isn't worth it? (Please correct if that makes no sense).
Thanks very much
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