When should I double up a casino bonus?

[etherz]

I've had lots of PMs this week about my diary for various reasons, although a couple of people have asked the question:

Do you always try to double up casino bonuses?

The simple answer is no.

Doubling up, sometimes referred to Two-Tier Betting or Stickying Up benefits the player in some situations, and these situations will differ from person to person.

The idea is to place large (or full bankroll) bets to a target gain, then grind out the rest of the wagering at low stake bets to reduce the varience on the remaining wagering.

The main reasons to place large bets to a target gain are:

• I will lose a large amount wagering the bonus due to playing a relatively high HE game, or due to a high wagering requirement.
• The wagering requires me to play a game with a complex strategy, therefore taking longer and lowering my profit per hour.
• I cannot use autoplay to complete the wagering.
• The bonus is sticky.

If none of these reasons are found, then there is often little gain in EV for the extra risk/varience in placing big bets to a target gain.


More information can be found at Beating Bonuses including some examples.

Comments/thoughts/corrections appreciated.

[Andy]

If its a pre wager bonus, and its allowed to double up, I ALWAYS would.

The whole thing is quicker then, for simplicity assume two £100 100% bonuses, and cashable (but works for sticky bonuses too, in fact turns -EV bonuses +EV).

Method A is grind both out low stakes, lose %X on the wagering of each, Assume thats £25 loss on wagering so you cash out £175. That takes 2.5 hours for each bonus. So it takes 5 hours to make 2 lots of £75 profit. Total of £150 profit, or £30 an hour.

Method B is double up at a 50/50 game. So one balance is now £0 and no wagering to do, that took 2 minutes. The other balance is now at £400. From there you now grind it out and lose £25 again and cash out £375. From that £375 £100 was your deposit there and there is the £100 you bust on the other bonus so its really £175 profit over the two offers. It took 2.5 hours to do. So thats £70 an hour.

Method B has more overall profit (£175 vs £150) and a MUCH higher hourly rate (£70 vs 30). Over enough offers you will win half and lose half really, you just have to be able to not mind sometimes losing several in a row, method A is preferable because it never has a loss. Method B has losses and bigger wins (variance) and thats why it has more profit too.

Its the age old trade off of risk vs rewards. Take risks, get big rewards. Play it safe, get small rewards.


Any other strategy/staking plan to hit a target is just a variation of the above (which I simplified a lot but thats the basic idea).

[Grandthrax]

If its a pre wager bonus, and its allowed to double up, I ALWAYS would.

I don't necessarily agree with this. There are often times when I'll complete the wr at high bet size instead of doubling up, in order to stay under the radar. Yes I'm losing a few pounds of ev but compared to the grief that can come from being labelled as a bonus abuser...

There is nothing more obvious than doubling and then grinding out the wr on minumun stakes.

Also by the same argument. Why not quadroluple up? Or octuple up? Each increases ev.

Also would you double up a 10% cashable bonus up to £250 with 25xb wagering on bj? (such as the 32red offer) You would have to do it a lot for the ev to show through the variance.

[Super_Dash]

I'll double up a smaller offer if BJ ain't available or the bonus is of a certain type. I'll Always do big hands of black jack on a bonus which has huge WR and a big enough deposit to mean im slightly risk averse.

[maddog]

I'm with Andy on this; I almost always double up.

Also by the same argument. Why not quadroluple up? Or octuple up? Each increases ev.

It may well increase the EV, but it also increases the variance significantly.

[Landprofits]

If its a pre wager bonus, and its allowed to double up, I ALWAYS would.

I take it you would think twice about doubling up on a post wager bonus then.... (since this removes at least some of the value from the double up)?

[Super_Dash]

I take it you would think twice about doubling up on a post wager bonus then.... (since this removes at least some of thr value from the double up)?

Removes all of the value doesn't it?

Your just wagering at the house edge with a higher stake (variance) strategy?

You double up .. you have less than a 50% chance of gaining double your money, and if you bust out your no closer to attaining your bonus than if you had ran £1 hands 100 times or whatever.

Or do you mean once the post wager bonus has been credited?

[Landprofits]

Removes all of the value doesn't it?

Yes, I just ran through some examples and it significantly reduces EV. The key point is that the bonus has to be added pre wager in order for you to have a value bet (assuming you're doubling up).

[Super_Dash]

Yes, I just ran through some examples and it significantly reduces EV. The key point is that the bonus has to be added pre wager in order for you to have a value bet (assuming you're doubling up).

Yeah, intuitively if you really think about it, it makes sense.

If your talking about a withdrawable post wager bonus.. then your just gambling with the house edge eating you if you double after the bonus has been added.

If it's an offer like Casino-on-net where once you get the last part of the bonus there is still wagering to be done. It may still be optimal to double up after the second part is given, but thats effectively just a pre-wager bonus situation so thats quite obvious too.

[daywalker]

I'm with Andy on this, if it's a pre-wager I always double up (or more). My only rule is that the bonus must be 30%+. Occasionally I'll let it go to 25% but it really depends on the casino/offer.

Increases EV and reduces time spent wagering.

Grandthrax - As for saying it identifies you as a bonus abuser, it's no different to anyone grinding out at small stakes. As far as the casinos are concerned if all you do is log in to use a bonus and don't play at any other time, you are a bonus abuser, it doesn't matter how you play that bonus.