Deal Or No Deal (Instant Win) - HE?

[lightster]

Does the Deal Or No Deal instant win game have a house edge?

I ask with relation to the Jackpotjoy - Play Win Collect promotion, as I've done some simple tests with Real Play and every time I total up the values of the remaining boxes and divide by the number of remaining boxes, the offer is correct!

This would suggest there's no house edge, but can someone explain this better, or does someone have more knowledge of the game than I do?

Cheers!

[lightster]

If you want to replicate my test (best done with Real Play than playing for fun, for a believable result) then here's what I did:

Select a £1 stake
Pick a box
Quick pick the first selection, this should leave you with 20 boxes (values down the left/right)
(Don't Deal or No Deal yet)
Total up the 20 available values down the left and right
Divide by 20

You should have a result that when rounded to 2 decimal places is the same as the offer.

If you want to continue the test and repeat the result, you can No Deal at this stage, quickpick, lose 5 more boxes and after totalling up the remaining boxes, divide by 15 instead. I kept getting the same result. No edge(!)

[munk]

I don't know the answer to your question specifically but I'm sure there's some tiny detail missing that makes up the edge (that or maybe there's no edge in freeplay which would be a bit sneaky!).

I can give you some stats though - from my own records (accepting first offer made) I've wagered £452 and lost £22 playing probably on average £1 stakes (maybe a bit less actually). So that's around 5% edge which sounds fair enough. Taking just the last few days on JJ playing DOND at £2/round, I've wagered £90 and lost £4.44 ... so very close again to 5% edge just on that fairly small sample!

[munk]

Just looked at this now since I was playing for JJ anyway.

The edge comes from the average initial prizes available in the boxes at the start prior to any boxes being picked compared to your initial stake.

So for example on £1 stakes, the totals in the boxes on left and right are £1.82 and £23.00 respectively, so a total of £24.82 in prizes available - making the average prize available £24.82/26 = £0.95 - so an edge of 5%.

[KasinoKing]

So for example on £1 stakes, the totals in the boxes on left and right are £1.82 and £23.00 respectively, so a total of £24.82 in prizes available - making the average prize available £24.82/26 = £0.95 - so an edge of 5%.

Why didn't I think of that!

KK

[munk]

Well to be fair I did have to start up a game and try a few different things first before I guessed at it hehe. I'm surprised my actual returns are as close to the edge as they are even over a fairly small sample size (though maybe I just got lucky).

[lightster]

Excellent Jez, that's the explanation I was after - that explains it. And it makes it very clear it's a 5% house edge.

Thank you!