When should I double up a casino bonus?

[etherz]

I've had lots of PMs this week about my diary for various reasons, although a couple of people have asked the question:

Do you always try to double up casino bonuses?

The simple answer is no.

Doubling up, sometimes referred to Two-Tier Betting or Stickying Up benefits the player in some situations, and these situations will differ from person to person.

The idea is to place large (or full bankroll) bets to a target gain, then grind out the rest of the wagering at low stake bets to reduce the varience on the remaining wagering.

The main reasons to place large bets to a target gain are:

• I will lose a large amount wagering the bonus due to playing a relatively high HE game, or due to a high wagering requirement.
• The wagering requires me to play a game with a complex strategy, therefore taking longer and lowering my profit per hour.
• I cannot use autoplay to complete the wagering.
• The bonus is sticky.

If none of these reasons are found, then there is often little gain in EV for the extra risk/varience in placing big bets to a target gain.


More information can be found at Beating Bonuses including some examples.

Comments/thoughts/corrections appreciated.

[Andy]

If its a pre wager bonus, and its allowed to double up, I ALWAYS would.

The whole thing is quicker then, for simplicity assume two £100 100% bonuses, and cashable (but works for sticky bonuses too, in fact turns -EV bonuses +EV).

Method A is grind both out low stakes, lose %X on the wagering of each, Assume thats £25 loss on wagering so you cash out £175. That takes 2.5 hours for each bonus. So it takes 5 hours to make 2 lots of £75 profit. Total of £150 profit, or £30 an hour.

Method B is double up at a 50/50 game. So one balance is now £0 and no wagering to do, that took 2 minutes. The other balance is now at £400. From there you now grind it out and lose £25 again and cash out £375. From that £375 £100 was your deposit there and there is the £100 you bust on the other bonus so its really £175 profit over the two offers. It took 2.5 hours to do. So thats £70 an hour.

Method B has more overall profit (£175 vs £150) and a MUCH higher hourly rate (£70 vs 30). Over enough offers you will win half and lose half really, you just have to be able to not mind sometimes losing several in a row, method A is preferable because it never has a loss. Method B has losses and bigger wins (variance) and thats why it has more profit too.

Its the age old trade off of risk vs rewards. Take risks, get big rewards. Play it safe, get small rewards.


Any other strategy/staking plan to hit a target is just a variation of the above (which I simplified a lot but thats the basic idea).

[Grandthrax]

Originally Posted by Andy

If its a pre wager bonus, and its allowed to double up, I ALWAYS would.

I don't necessarily agree with this. There are often times when I'll complete the wr at high bet size instead of doubling up, in order to stay under the radar. Yes I'm losing a few pounds of ev but compared to the grief that can come from being labelled as a bonus abuser...

There is nothing more obvious than doubling and then grinding out the wr on minumun stakes.

Also by the same argument. Why not quadroluple up? Or octuple up? Each increases ev.

Also would you double up a 10% cashable bonus up to £250 with 25xb wagering on bj? (such as the 32red offer) You would have to do it a lot for the ev to show through the variance.

[Super_Dash]

I'll double up a smaller offer if BJ ain't available or the bonus is of a certain type. I'll Always do big hands of black jack on a bonus which has huge WR and a big enough deposit to mean im slightly risk averse.

[maddog]

I'm with Andy on this; I almost always double up.

Originally Posted by Grandthrax

Also by the same argument. Why not quadroluple up? Or octuple up? Each increases ev.

It may well increase the EV, but it also increases the variance significantly.

[Landprofits]

Originally Posted by Andy

If its a pre wager bonus, and its allowed to double up, I ALWAYS would.

I take it you would think twice about doubling up on a post wager bonus then.... (since this removes at least some of the value from the double up)?

[Super_Dash]

Originally Posted by Landprofits

I take it you would think twice about doubling up on a post wager bonus then.... (since this removes at least some of thr value from the double up)?

Removes all of the value doesn't it?

Your just wagering at the house edge with a higher stake (variance) strategy?

You double up .. you have less than a 50% chance of gaining double your money, and if you bust out your no closer to attaining your bonus than if you had ran £1 hands 100 times or whatever.

Or do you mean once the post wager bonus has been credited?

[Landprofits]

Originally Posted by Super_Dash

Removes all of the value doesn't it?

Yes, I just ran through some examples and it significantly reduces EV. The key point is that the bonus has to be added pre wager in order for you to have a value bet (assuming you're doubling up).

[Super_Dash]

Originally Posted by Landprofits

Yes, I just ran through some examples and it significantly reduces EV. The key point is that the bonus has to be added pre wager in order for you to have a value bet (assuming you're doubling up).

Yeah, intuitively if you really think about it, it makes sense.

If your talking about a withdrawable post wager bonus.. then your just gambling with the house edge eating you if you double after the bonus has been added.

If it's an offer like Casino-on-net where once you get the last part of the bonus there is still wagering to be done. It may still be optimal to double up after the second part is given, but thats effectively just a pre-wager bonus situation so thats quite obvious too.

[daywalker]

I'm with Andy on this, if it's a pre-wager I always double up (or more). My only rule is that the bonus must be 30%+. Occasionally I'll let it go to 25% but it really depends on the casino/offer.

Increases EV and reduces time spent wagering.

Grandthrax - As for saying it identifies you as a bonus abuser, it's no different to anyone grinding out at small stakes. As far as the casinos are concerned if all you do is log in to use a bonus and don't play at any other time, you are a bonus abuser, it doesn't matter how you play that bonus.

[etherz]

Originally Posted by daywalker

if it's a pre-wager I always double up (or more).

Originally Posted by etherz

and these situations will differ from person to person

Depends on how much variance you can stomach ;-)

[daywalker]

Originally Posted by etherz

Depends on how much variance you can stomach ;-)

Absolutely but you did ask for comments so I gave mine

It's all about attitude to risk etc

[Landprofits]

Originally Posted by etherz

[list][*]I will lose a large amount wagering the bonus due to playing a relatively high HE game, or due to a high wagering requirement.

Comments/thoughts/corrections appreciated.

Interesting thread, thanks Etherz for starting it. I guess you can be undecided about when should you double up, or when you shoud quadruple up.

One thing I am considering is to perhaps calculate my edge and use that as a decision making tool. For instance, Etherz mentions that one of the reasons he may double up is because of a high wagering requirement.

Let me give the following as an example; £100 deposit, £100 cash bonus, £10,000 WR. Using 0.5% a the HE of blackjack, we can see that he EV of this offer is £50 by just grinding through the wagering. This equates to a player edge of 0.5%, which is below what some professional card counters would probably accept.

Doubling up and then grinding out the remaining wagering increases the player edge to around 1.47%, which is still pretty tight - it's not until you quadruple up that you hit a player edge of almost 3%, but with significantly increased variance.

Any comments?

[Andy]

Originally Posted by Landprofits

Any comments?

I think you have hit the nail on the head, the two are inversely linked. To make one better the other gets worse, if you want more profit then take more risks (quad up rather than double or grind it from start) if you want less risks then accept less profits too.

Quite how much to risk and how much reward to take will differ from person to person and only you know what is best for you.

[U4EA]

Forgive me if I am a little behind here but I am totally new to the concept of doubling up.

Let's start with an example of BlackJack, £100 cashable, 40 x B (£4000) WR and lets go with a given HE of 0.5%. So, the EV of this offer is £((100)-(4000*0.005)) which is £80.

Just to see if I have got this correct (sorry if I sound a bit fick)...

Cash EV is directly proportional to the HE of the game played to complete the WR.

I fully understand (as anyone would) how playing higher stakes affects the "time EV" of the offer as you complete the WR faster. However - if I have this right - the suggestion is that playing higher stakes (or at least a single high stake at the start of the WR) increases the cash EV of the situation?

If this is the case, this is the part I do not understand. Surely the principle underlined above does not change as the value of the hand is directly proportional to the value of the HE threatening that hand?

[dulence]

Assume you have two exactly the same 100% to 100 bonuses with a 4000 WR (i.e. a total WR of 8000). Try to double up both those bonuses, the (rough) expectation is that you'll win one and lose one. As you've busted one bonus you have no need to complete any WR there, which leaves you with the WR of the bonus where you've won the double up. Effectively by doubling up you've cut the WR in half.

[Landprofits]

Originally Posted by dulence

Assume you have two exactly the same 100% to 100 bonuses with a 4000 WR (i.e. a total WR of 8000). Try to double up both those bonuses, the (rough) expectation is that you'll win one and lose one. As you've busted one bonus you have no need to complete any WR there, which leaves you with the WR of the bonus where you've won the double up. Effectively by doubling up you've cut the WR in half.

and thus although there won't be a massively significant difference on the total profit made over two offers, the Expected Gain proportional to the amount wagered is higher.

[U4EA]

But have I also not just exposed the doubled hand to the same relative proportion of HE when I played it?

[etherz]

Yes but you are only wagering £400, as opposed to £4000. The HE is a percentage.

[dulence]

Originally Posted by U4EA

But have I also not just exposed the doubled hand to the same relative proportion of HE when I played it?

I don't know what a relative proportion of HE is.

To build on the previous example, let's assume that the HE on the game you're trying to double on is 0% and that it contributes to WR with 0% for simplicity's sake, and that the HE on the game you'll be grinding the WR on is 0.5%. If you were to do the two bonuses without trying to double up the EV per one bonus would be 100 - 4000*0.005 = 80. If you tried to double up once the EV would be 0.5*(2*100 - 4000*0.005) = 90 as you'll need to go through the WR of only one of the two bonuses.

[Landprofits]

Originally Posted by U4EA

But have I also not just exposed the doubled hand to the same relative proportion of HE when I played it?

Actually, doubling up decreases the house edge when you take the bonus into account.

"Edge", whether it's House Edge or player Edge refers to the amount of expected gain or loss per unit wagered, or per amount wagered.

In dulence's example, he says you can expect to win one double up and lose one double up. This means that you will wager £200 on the double up you lose, and you will wager £4,000 on the double up you win (and subsequently grind out) = £4,200. On the double up you win, you will start with a balance of £400. Since you have already wagered £200 on the double up, you only have £3,800 WR left to do, and at a HE of 0.5% you will expect to lose £19 during the course of the wagering.

Thus your expected gain from the double up you win is £281. Since you lost your (-£100) on the first double up, your profit over the two offers = £181. To acheive that you have wagered £4,100.

Had you have grinded out the wagering in both cases, your EV would be £160, in £8,000 worth of wagering.

[U4EA]

I'm 99% sure I am being thick here, but please be gentle

First question: -

If, say, you have a BJ WR to complete, are you doubling up on BJ? Or on another casino game?

[maddog]

Originally Posted by U4EA

I'm 99% sure I am being thick here, but please be gentle

First question: -

If, say, you have a BJ WR to complete, are you doubling up on BJ? Or on another casino game?

Ideally you want to play the lowest variance and HE game available; this is generally blackjack.

In your example it would be sensible to double up on BJ, as you are simultaneously taking a chunk out of the WR and completing the double up by doing so.

[etherz]

Blackjack is not a wise choice, due to the chance of a double or split. If you double or split when you have already bet your whole balance, you must either ignore the double/split choice, and increase the house edge, or redeposit, risking more of your own money.

[Andy]

Originally Posted by U4EA

Or on another casino game?

Personally I like Pai Gow, as Etherz touches on there is no splits or doubles and you get an awful lot of pushes so if you are betting big hands then you will find you actually wager quite a bit just getting to the target. Your only paid out 95% on a win though so relatively high HE but I still like it.

Different people have different personal favourite strategies there is not a right or wrong way really. If you like BJ do that.