Blackjack Strategy

[munk]

Ok, this was a reply to a post on another topic, but it's really OT there so here's a new thread about this.

Just thinking about staking strategies in blackjack.

With bj flat betting is there some rule of thumb *all things being equal* (ie your regular grind-it-out bonus WR) to use about how much to stake - ie 1% of your bank per hand etc?

Any guidelines on how much bankroll to take to the table for a bonus that's only released after a number of times deposit wagerthrough?

ie if it's deposit £100, WR 25x (ie £2500), do you find it easier to just goto table with the £100 you deposit, or deposit more straight away to avoid having to deposit more later?


Also is there any advantage running with multiple hands as opposed to just one at a time? Seems to even itself out running with say 5 or more hands, the occasions you get dealer blackjack seem to even themselves out with the times the dealer will get a pants 5 and just bust out with you holding 12-16 on most hands.

I guess most of the answers to these questions will be personal preference and maybe others don't think about it too much, but I try and make it methodical and tedious in the hopes it won't get too much of a pleasure playing heh (though flat betting minimum stake also has that effect too ).

[Marcus Publius]

In terms of your long-run EV, it makes no difference how much you bet on each hand, or if you try to double up first.

The only thing that these betting strategies will affect is your variance.

In other words, if you are betting 1% of your account balance on each hand, you will have a much lower chance of busting out than if you were betting 10% on each hand. The house edge is still the same, so over the long run, you won't make more or less money by betting smaller or larger.

Same is true with doubling up.

[thefreshness]

i always bet pound a hand with single hand to cut down on the variance, betting with a higher stake or multi hands will obviously increase the win/loss. playing poker at the same time also diverts my mind enough to keep my frustration at a managable level. I have been playin 4 months and have made 400 quid out of 16 sign ups or monthlys so im quite happy. I said to myself i would increase my stake to 2 quid this month, to much of a chicken... mabye next month. betting higher or with multi hands would defo cut down on the time i play black jack and in the long run would be getting the same return, but what can i say im scottish so every penny counts

[Doc]

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What More Do You Need?

[mac]

depends on the bonus though. with a sticky bonus you need a target figure and there is a mathematical equation (ive forgotten :P) that will show you maxEV.

Also take two identical bonuses where you are given 100£ each. with 20wr.
if you double up, on average you will win one of these and lose one.

Then you have the same amount of money.... BUT you have 1/2 the wr. as you dont even need to wager on one. This saves you time AND money as of course the house edge of 1-5% x WR will be half as well.

but yea you need the bankroll. : )

[munk]

Yeah cheers fellas. Seems the gist of most of your replies is that flat betting at minimum stake minimizes variance and reduces house edge. (tanks marcus )

@thefreshness, £1/hand is a killer though eh if you're looking at a £100 bonus with 25x or more WR... tedious in extreme. I started out this way but after one stupid session til 6am I swore I'd not do it again.

I think if you factor in how much your time is actually worth - ie how much you want to be making on average per day/hour - then flat betting minimum odds just isn't economical most of the time (well unless you're happy with £1/hour which is what I reckon it'd be if you had to flat bet £2500 at £1 a pop... ).

@mac - cheers I found a few interesting bits searching for 'mathematical blackjack equation'... will read up some. (EDIT: ARe you thinking of the 'Kelly criterion'? Sounds interesting anyways.)

And Doc... I usually use:

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I think when I started out the first time I used your exponential betting strat there but ... started getting a bit mental after winning 4 or 5 hands in a row heh... the less aggressive strat seems to work better for me. Maybe I'll give yours a go again on the next casino (probably Littlewoodscasino.com/?02809014]Littlewoods[/url] now fricking neteller eventually sorted their shit out and transferred my money).

Cheers again.

[Doc]

actually that was a joke... you should only do the "martingale" when attempting to lose all of your money.

believe this - i have known someone who has gone thru every casino system he can find and then some and has always ended up losing his stake.

the ONLY thing that works is to bust the bonus in one manner or another.

[munk]

Ah right... I was thinking you meant bet that in that seqence whilst on a running streak not losing streak ala martingale. Martingale sounds nuts for blackjack. Chances of losing 8 or more hands in a row is not that small eh?

Some good stuff out there anyway, just been reading math for the last half hour which hurts my head heh.

End of day I gotta say any wagering strategy seems to be irrelevant with Online Casinos given that they shuffle deck(s) every single hand. Any advantage that the various betting strategies try to exploit is just lost because of that - the probability of winning two hands in a row are (or should be if the software is properly seeded) completely distinct from each other (unless you maybe go with the idea that some software is 'streaky' or w/e?).

Might as well just double up on the bankroll and go with a doubled up flat bet (ie £200 instead of £100 bankroll or w/e, flat bet with £2 instead of £1, do that across multiple hands at same time).

[mac]

""Yeah cheers fellas. Seems the gist of most of your replies is that flat betting at minimum stake minimizes variance and reduces house edge. (tanks marcus )""

NO.

If you read my post you will see flat betting at minimum stake reduces variance yep. But overall its less EV. As it takes a hell of a lot longer and you will be wagering more due to having to wager the full amount instead of say half (if you doubled up first)

how do you think flatbetting at £1 a hand reduces house edge? It just reduces your risk of busting on that particular casino, which is fine but if you do this alot try and think of the bigger picture.

Yes all bj strategies suck, i only change from flat betting because im bored stupid and it usually ends badly ***. just work out how much you want to flatbet (by starting credits, wagering amount and your bankroll) these are the factors to think of. and also whether or not it is worth doubling up first.

[bro111]

Then you have the same amount of money.... BUT you have 1/2 the wr. as you dont even need to wager on one.

Are you sure? If you double up you have a remaining WR of x-1, not x/2.