Maximizing Value
Do NOT place a horse racing bet just because you are told 'it will win' or take the SP (Starting Price) - what really matters is that the odds you receive relative to the chances of the selection winning are in your favour. As an advantage/professional gambler, betting on something because you think that it will win - a conviction bet - and not taking the very best possible price is like betting on the lottery: occasionally you will win, but overall your bankroll will be diminished and you will be poorer as a result.
You must make sure that you are getting value from every bet. It is this search for value which is inevitably missing from every failed gambler's armoury.
So, what exactly do we mean by value? Well, if Horse A has a 5s chance (real chance, ie 'true' odds) of winning a race and you can the opportunity to bet on that horse at 6s or higher then you should jump on the chance. Why? Because, if your bet wins, your profit will exceed the profit you would have received betting at the 'true' odds.
On the other hand, if Horse B's real chances are 2s but you are only able to bet on it at 1.8 then even though Horse B is more likely to win than Horse A (on the grounds it is at shorter odds) you should NOT take that bet because the 'true' odds of the horse are not reflected by the unfavourable price you are taking.
Of course, value bets don't always win and mug bets don't always lose but there is at least mathematical sense to value betting - it is like any situation where you make a purchase, you should always aim to get the best value possible in terms of product/service per unit of money and in the long run if you can do that efficiently enough your rate per hour will be maximized.
To help you with your betting, we suggest you take three measures:
- Make a betting selection but don't bet on it yet.
- Use a price comparison site to check where you can get the best price for your selection. One such site is Oddschecker.
- You will often find multiple sites offering the best price available so... be savvy.
Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG)
One such perk or method of increasing your value is 'Best Odds Guaranteed' (BOG) and a number of bookmakers offer it. BOG is when a bookmaker settles your fixed odds winning bet at its SP (Starting Price) if your horse's SP was higher than the odds you originally bet at. If the SP was not higher than the odds you bet at then you still get paid out at the odds you originally accepted.
So, after picking a horse and using a price comparison site to find the best price, it would be folly to bet at a bookmaker which didn't offer BOG given the opportunity to do so. So as an example, betting with a BOG bookmaker means that you can bet on your horse at 4, and if it drifts out to an SP of 6 and continues to win, you will be paid out at odds of 6 instead of the original price of just 4. This can make a huge difference if you consider you might have bet £100@4 but get effective odds of 6 - you are increasing your profit from £300 to £500!
So from now on ONLY bet on a horse if it is at a BOG site and NEVER take the SP. Following this advice is certain to increase your profits.
Best Odds Guaranteed sites which we recommend are:
- Bet365
- Totesport
- Paddy Power
- Stan James(on Board Prices only)
- Ladbrokes
- Coral
- William Hill
- Centrebet
Sites that offer BOG can and do change over time so it is imperative that you double check that the site does offer BOG and you understand what the current BOG terms (if any) are. Please see this thread for the latest information about BOG bookmakers and BOG in general:
Threads tagged with 'BOG' - The Gambling Times
Other Horse Racing Promotions and Offers
From the BOG list above, you can increase your edge still further by looking for specific offers and promotions which may be combined with your bet.
For example, is there a payout for 'First Past the Post' as well as the official result? What this means is that if your horse finishes first but goes on to be disqualified or downgraded in placings, you still get paid out as if it won. Of course if your horse didn't pass the post first but was announced as the official winner then you get paid out as having the winner too. If you have ever had a winner thrown out after a stewards enquiry you will know the sickening feeling of the cash you had just mentally banked being snatched away! Don't let it happen to you.
From the above list of BOG sites, those that also have First Past the Post are:
Having narrowed it down to those five sites there are then a whole host of other offers and promotions which you should look out for to make sure that, if your selection doesn't come through, you get as much of your money back as a saver. As well as maximising your returns it is also imperative that any investment strategy does its very best to protect your capital.
BoyleSports and VictorChandler regularly have 'Featured Races' where if your horse is a faller (Victor Chandler) or if it comes second to the SP favourite (PaddyPower) or if he loses by a short head (Boyles) then you'll be refunded usually in the form of a free bet to the value of your stake (always a maximum refund level so check).
Although the odds in such promotional races can sometimes appear worse than normal, it is still worth checking if your horse would be covered by any site's particular offer. It is also important to understand that some of the promotions (and even BOG) may only be available through particular betting mediums such as online betting rather than telephone betting or in-shop betting and may not apply to antepost betting.
This short amount of extra time spent doing your research is what makes the difference between a Pro and a Mug. Having £200 on a horse that falls clear at the last and moaning about it in the shop is what the Mugs do. The Pros placed that bet at VC and under the Faller promotion running that day they got the money back as £200 in free bets. That's £200 of extra ammunition to use the next day and that is how you beat the bookie in the end.
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