Guaranteed profit Vs "the big payout"?
So what is the general concensus?
Should people go for the safe option of 75-100% freebet profit or try and pick a score/result and lay more than common sence tells you to. I dont mean gambling but win medium/win medium Vs win v.small/win BIG??
On qualifiers my personal mantra for a while now is underlay to the point where you make no profit/loss if the selection loses, but if the selection wins, win big(ger). Reason being that I've been losing money from Betfair excessively over all periods for a long time, since I started basically.
This method entails an arb is involved, if you're not on an arb (ie a back selection you can take at a price that has a corresponding lay selection at a price that would entail a guaranteed profit) then I just go for an optimal loss... or don't take it (more often than not).
On free bets I generally look to make at least 90% if the selection loses or 100%+ if it wins. When I started out though I followed the 95/85 rule, 95% for qualifiers and 85% for free bets.
I would probably take into account WHERE I was winning as much as anything else. If my outcomes are £10 in BlueSq or £10 in Betfair then they are as good as each other. £10 in say GoldVictory is not the same as £10 in betfair, i would much rather have £10 in betfair, in fact i would rather have £5 in betfair than £15 in GV.
I would still hedge if for maybe £12 in BlueSq or £8 in betfair to take into account if its in betfair i dont have to do anymore. If it was somewhere else less safe i would start going right down to maybe £5 or £15. Thats all assuming even odds, since often its long odds its even more skewed to say £5 or £50.
Other factors are does the site do reload bonuses, if they do if you have an Net account balance of -$s then obviously i would want a bigger +$s if it wins there because if it loses im getting another bonus anyway.
There are lots and lots of factors to take into account and i think assuming £1 in outcome A is the same as £1 in outcome B is a mistake and your better off looking at the bigger picture. Then apply it to your own circumstances. Whats best for me is not best for you or best for Joe Bloggs. My attitude, which has changed over years, is currently underlay heavily and go for turnover over profit margin. Its easier/quicker/more luctrative to make 20% on £100 then 100% on £10.
Have a plan and stick to it
I'd agree with Andy about this. When I did BS24 for the second time I heavily underlaid (would've only made a a tenner had it lost) as it was a bookie with a dodgy past and new owners, so got a nice chunk when it won, and once I completed the WR I actually ended up with a profit of about £7.50 over the full bonus amount, even with their bad odds.
Originally Posted by Andy
I always underlay long odds, just by a small amount. 50p less at odds of 20 isn't a lot, but £10 extra profit makes it worth the inconvenience of winning at the bookie, and generally I'll weight arbs so all or most of the profit is at the bookie rather than the exchange, whether short or long odds.
I tend to take about 75-90% from £50 free bets which I will happily take over spending hours to get the extra £4!!