It must of been posted befor but here is a link to the bible of spreadsheets. Pretty self explanitary and can be quite helpfull if your struggleing to find close odds!!
This is JUST my opinion and lots and lots of people will strongly disagree and maybe this will start a good row over it
DONT USE SPREADSHEETS to work out your bets. (or at the very least stop as soon as possible).
They assume all things are equal, and they are not, they also encourage complacency, and as soon as something does not fit in a box people are lost.
An analogy = Riding a bike with stabilisers on, its probably a good idea when you are 4, it helps you to learn and gain confidence and you dont fall over and hurt yourself anything like so much.
When you are 12 and have been doing it for a while you would probably want to take them off though, you will have more freedom, actually go faster and not be so tired. Yes you might fall over now and then but you will not die, you can get up, dust yourself down and try again, not making that mistake again and next time taking the corner slower (whatever). Some people still have stabilisers at 12 but they are usually a bit special.
Some people eventually get good enough to ride in the Tour De France, NONE of them have stabilisers, and when they crash it is pretty spectacualr and bones are broken. BUT they are the best in the World, and they take risks and get rewards because nobody wears the Yellow Jersey without that.
The point of that is yes stabilisers (spreadsheets) can be good to learn with (although i didnt) and i can see the virtue of them but they are not the be all and end all of it and i really think you should ditch them as soon as possible. You will make mistakes, they will go for you as much as against, and it will make you much much better long term. OK start the backlash, probably headed by Munk who has spreadsheets of his spreadsheets
Have a plan and stick to it
I would just say yes by all means start on paper but using spreadsheets has more benefits (for me personally) than paper:
Ok the last one is a bit of a joke of course but I think the other reasons are pretty good. Also not sure about the bike analogy! If anything it's the wrong way around, I'd say learn on paper first and when you understand the maths and feel comfortable, create your own spreadsheet from scratch using the maths you did on paper first.
- instant calculations which will always be quicker than paper method
- easy to modify your spreadsheet to perform a variety of different complex tasks quickly (ie £x / x% refund if something does/doesn't happen)
- keeping track of all previous bets which allows you to analyse your gambling patterns and spot ways of tweaking to increase profits
- if you do want it on paper you can always print it out (!)
- pens and paper cost money
At the end of the day it all depends on what you feel most comfortable with.
I do work on paper though sometimes, for example if I'm trying to work out how a concept works (for example like how to work out how to optimize the return from a bet that returns x% of the stake if it wins), I'll usually work out the algebra first on paper which gives a generalization of how that specific type of problem can be solved. I actually quite enjoy that kind of thing (I did Maths at Uni!) but also doing algebra in a spreadsheet isn't that easy. However once I do have it down on paper I can then go over to a spreadsheet and do the same thing there very easily without having to faff around in future trying to find the piece of paper I wrote the working out on!
Nowadays though for most 'plain' arbs I use just a constant lay stake which is just back stake + betfair commission - very easy to work out (ie £50 + £2.50 for a £50 back stake etc) so no profit if the selection loses but if it wins then it's payday! Lot easier since I started doing this rather than faffing with a spreadsheet to get the exact lay stake to the penny for an optimal return.
Well I didn't learn to ride a bike till I was 17!!
That aside, the post was MAINLY aimed towards either newish comers and/or those (like me) who dont use it all the time but every now and then If i'm struggleing to find a bet etc it can just help maximise what you can get from a bonus.
Agree that you could make a costly mistake if your not atleast doing abit of your own maths though!
Ha Ha. That's fightin' talk!
DONT USE SPREADSHEETS to work out your bets. (or at the very least stop as soon as possible)
I like spreadsheets, and I've made a fair few. Initally they were just adaptations of the one above (credit to Tim_L) but as time went on they expanded.
Having spreadsheets saves time (such as if you want to lay a bet where there is poor liquidity at the exchange so you are laying at a range of odds such as 1.999, 2.00, 2.02 and 2.04) and for some of the more complcated offers saved valuable minutes calculating by hand (anyone remember the Skybet refund of 20% of net losses over the whole of Punchestown - easy enough to work out on the 1st bet but very complicated to work out how much to underlay your fifth bet so that any winnings don't wipe out the refund from prevous losses).
I'm particularly fond of the spreadheet I made for that last offer. The simultaneous equations to work out the underlay were fiednishly complicated and trying to work those out by hand when betting on the horses would have been far to slow to be effective. Granted it took me a day to work it all out, but it enabled me to increase my profit on that offer from £40 to around £160. Shame it's the only time I've been able to use it!
Even for simpler matching I like a spreadheet - getting a lay stake wrong by a quid at odds of 20 or so can make the difference between a good profit and a nasty overlay leaving you at a loss. Having said that, knowing if the amount you are laying 'looks' right is just as important as you can make mistakes using a spreadsheet (eg putting in 2% commission when you're using Betfair cocks it right up). Using it without any idea how the maths works wouldn't be my advice.
There - stick that in yer pipe and smoke it, Andy!
We came at it from different angles
Have a plan and stick to it
I think thats its important that people understand the maths behind matched betting before they start, so getting a pencil and paper out for your first few bets is essential. This means that if something happens such as:
odds changing at one site when matching a bet
only being allowed a limited stake
However once you've mastered the basics I think spreadsheets are the way to go as you can calculate bets much quicker and include variables such as multiple lay odds, and cashback. And having an understanding of the basics you usual notice when things dont look right and you've made a mistake (i.e. commision) and how to correct the mistake if you notice it too late
Tags for this Thread