Is Consistent Profit from Sports Betting Possible?
I know the majority of here are advantage players but just wondering if any make consistent profits from "mug" punting.
I do believe its possible to turn profits if you do enough research on each bets and only bet on the correct market per match. I understand how the odds that bookmakers give you are very rarely the true value, but at the end of the day if you make the correct decision like 70-80% of the time then surely you will end up in profit?
however, im yet to give it a go as it kinda feels like it will defeat the object of all the matched betting that i do! lol
There must be some who make consistent money from straight betting though?
A long time a go, someone said to me that mug punting is more profitable in the long term by simply placing bets on the best odds available. So if most places offer 2.00 on something, and then one book offers 2.1, then take that as it is the most valued bet.
He demonstrated the maths behind it. He also demonstrated the variance doing this and the bankroll needed..
I will stick to matched betting.
i actually dont agree with the theory of taking a bet just because its good value, i also dont believe there is any "system" where you can back blindly and win in long term, but with good research you can make profit.
In my mug punting days i once deposited £20 at coral and turned it into £400 doing mug punting on over/under markets. I really looked into previous match stats and thought long and hard about each bet. I was up to £600 and was aiming for a £1k but lost my bottle when i went back down to £400 and withdrew. I then discovered matched betting and havent done any since.
But its made me think that its actually possible wit a good staking plan and alot of research.
It is possible as long as when you place a bet it is at odds greater than the chances of that event occouring.
Ladbrokes dont know the chances of TeamA winning, they take an educated guess on all the possible outcomes and then make the odds on each a bit worse which is their profit margin. From then on they just shift the odds based on how much money they take on each outcome to balance their book (within reason).
If you place bets on TeamA when the odds of them winning are greater than the real chances, you will make money in the long run. Ladbrokes need to price up and offer odds on hundreds of different markets every day. You only need to bet on the games with value odds, so you can cherry pick.
It is possible to do, you just (ha ha) have to be better at working out the chances of each event happening than the bookies.
Have a plan and stick to it
just stick to evens or better that way as long as you are right more than you are wrong you will always be in profit
100 bets at evens, 51 right, 49 wrong you are in profit, you will make more profit the more you are right
2010 Grand National Ante Post: Big Fella Thanks @ 20/1 ladbrokes
In theory yes. If you consistently take the best odds available and this cancels out the bookie vigorish, you should make money.
Originally Posted by LosEndos
Some people have produced examples of historical data where taking outlier bets , ie prices significantly better than the available average odds from a range of bookies. Leighton Vaughan Williams proved you can bet card index bets by doing this, as did Joseph Buchadahl with extreme favourites on soccer markets. US markets such as NFL and basketball, which have quite low vig, have historically proven quite easy to beat this way.
The problem is that many of these bets would be arbs anyway. You face the same problems as arbitrageurs in terms of having only a small window of opportunity.
With other markets than those mentioned, there is the difficulty of knowing what the bookie vigorish is on a specific price-it isn't usually evenly distributed across all possible outcomes.
Finally, even if you can prove historically that betting value makes money, this doesn't necessarily mean it will work going forward. As an analogy, house prices have gone up for most of the last decade but you would have lost money buying up property in the last few years. With sports, betting home dogs would have made you lots of money on the NFL until the last few years, while betting extreme favourites at soccer was at one time massively profitable but has lost cash in the last few seasons.
The problem is that if you notice that betting value has been profitable on certain markets, probably other people have also, and that may make any value in those markets evaporate as the bookies adjust to the new money.
That said, betting value usually seems to make money for individuals.
It's certainly possible because, as Andy says above, if the odds of the selection winning are greater than it's actual probability, then you would win money in the long run - that's Expected Value in action.
But can you imagine having to form an opinion, a position on whether the selection offers good value or not? That's where the nightmare is.
However, I believe the history books have individuals who have successfully beaten the bookies by placing value bets. But because the margin would be pretty thin (I would imagine), you would have some scary times and some frightening variance....
Surely that would place a Handicapper in danger of beginning to doubt his theories? And when that happened, that individual might sway away from his system and that, in turn could screw things up further.
Having said that, I would imagine a good Handicapper could obtain a better edge than a Blackjack Card Counter could which is about a couple of percent.....now THAT would take discipline.
By the way I was a successfull handicapper for many years and it funded my millionaire lifestyle. Things were good until I was barred from all UK and on course Bookmakers which forced me to start my own Racing Advisory Service. Members this year are £45 Million GBP in profit so far. All for £49.95 per month.
If I am honest I do a little gambling. I use the wifes betdaq account to have a play. I started with £10 at the start of the year and so far banked £867 profit. I usually cashout when I hit £100 and leave £20 in.
My stratergy is simple, bet on teams that are well ahead. sounds pretty simple and the odds are small, but you will be suprised at some of the odds you can get. Many times a team have been 2-0 up in footy with less than 20 mins to go and you could still get 1.3+.
Also betting on something like 1goal or more in a game, odds are usually around 1.1, but it all adds up.
I do mug the odd qualifier also, with the breeders cup being a good example for the will hill offer. I mugged everyone and was well up.
I dont do it everyday, just when the fancy takes me, most likely it is when there are a few midweek games on, so plenty of choice.
I think of this as my plaything. I dont do casinos and no matter what people will tell you on other matched betting sites, there is always a temptation to gamble, so having this account means that when I want to play, I go play.
I can see that as a good bit of fun- I think the trouble comes for those who see it as a major money making opportunity (cliché alert) and lack any discipline.
Originally Posted by billysastard
There are people who've made vast amounts from mugging, though the amount of research and other legwork involved mean that it's not really "mugging" anymore.
Somebody mentioned the theory of mugging all IW arbs to see what would happen, which is an interesting idea, if possibly a little optimistic.
I keep track of all bets at IW (I don't really know why, I just always have) and here are my results for the year:
Originally Posted by Steve_B
Total bets 599
Total profit from arbs £995
Now, if I had never layed off any bets I would only be £581 in profit. And that is only because of some positive variance recently. At the start of Novemeber (just 10 days ago!) I would have been £60 in profit. And a few times earlier in the I would have been waaaaay down, as much as -£1300.
So mugging IW arbs would not have been a wise idea for me.
Of course who knows where variance will take me from here, I could easily go on a big up swing now and get ahead of my actual profit (by matching all bets). As well, you cannot tell for sure that every bet was a value bet, since it could be that interwetten wasn't the 'value' side of the matched bet every time. However, in the case of IW I think we can say it probably was for the vast majority. Anyway, just some stats from my IW betting this year
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