No its fine I think it's an interesting subject and worth having over here.
Originally Posted by tigerelm
Generally I think there's not much point to having bookie accounts if you're not going to bet with them. End of the day unless you're betting £2 here and there on completely un valuable lines, you will get limited, end of story. And even then you will still get limited eventually, it's the one and only cast iron guarantee in gambling, eventually you will get limited no matter what happens (fair enough maybe you could keep your account open, but I would find it very hard to believe anyone who says they're still unlimited after having an account at any book for more than a hundred bets).
There is the argument that you should keep your accounts unlimited so you can take advantage of offers when they come up (I couldn't do the Lads offer today for example because my win limit was so poor), but really there aren't enough offers out there after a while (I mean after you've done the SUB offers for the main bookies and have say around 100 accounts opened) so you have to make ends meet with the odd arb here and there.
However there are a large number of smaller books out there that quite often don't get mentioned that much in public apart from when they have promotions on. There are a lot of books out there and if you try and keep a balance in every book you open then you can quickly jump on any line movement with a number of bets at 5-10 different places to even things out.
That is kind of the opposite of what a lot of people do though, most people tend to 'hit and run' when they join a new book and so they never really get to see how lines move at those places or take advantage of price movements at those places. I think there's a lot to be said for people NOT hitting and running as soon as they've completed an offer (one that comes to mind recently is 1bet), if you have a limit in your head that you won't allow your balance to go over then it's simple to just keep a reasonable balance (maybe 1-5% of your total float say) at a lot of different books and take advantage of price movements across a number of books rather than just hitting one place hard all the time. (Also by not hitting and running you're helping the book stay stable and there's a better chance they might offer more promos in future).
Finally - slightly OT but kind of related - there's also something to be said for value betting - punting on sharp lines that would produce arbs of around 2+% if you were to lay them off.
Value betting has a number of benefits:
But of course there are huge downsides as well, addiction being right up at the top of the list - massive variance, huge down days mixed in with huge up days, all by and large probably profitable long term (if you can manage to stay disciplined) but in the short term quite hard to bear unless you can deal with it (and even then if you think you are dealing with it at some point you might end up finding that actually what you thought of as 'dealing with it' was actually you becoming addicted and you start punting less on value lines and more on conviction lines).
- Theoretically should be more profitable in the long term since you're taking prices that are better than market price (is a big leap of faith though) and a larger proportion of your float is available for punting (since you're not laying things off on the other side)
- Makes your accounts more profitable in terms of limitations per win for want of a better way of putting it - ie any time you win at a book that increases the likelihood of being limited (whether it happens immediately or not doesn't matter, just the fact you had a net win increases your account's status as a 'liability' to a bookmaker). Each time you get limited at a book you've lost another resource / avenue for making money, so in a way it makes makes sense to not lay any value bet off at all so that you maximize the 'net win to limitability ratio'(!) of your winning bets.
- Eradicates losses incurred when bets are palped - if you don't lay anything off then it doesn't matter so much if a bet wins and the bookie palps it because it was deemed to be 'sharp'.
- Mistakes are easier to bear - making mistakes when you're 'matched betting' can be extremely costly in terms of the amount of profit/loss you make on the matched bet (ie if you backed £500 on over email@example.com@two diff places by mistake and it came in under 2.5, you'd be down £1000 compared to just £500 if you hadn't (tried to!) lay it off). When this happens it really does make you think whether arbing is worth it at all, employing such a large amount of money to make such a small profit.. does sometimes make value punting look quite attractive!
So I'm definitely not putting value betting out there as a 'good thing' to do, just saying that it is one alternative to arbing for those that have enough money to (hopefully not) lose and the right constitution.
£1k a month profit is pretty easy to achieve, but you need to be a Jack of all trades. Match betting, arbing, trading, and of course promotions from BOTH Sportsbooks and casinos.
Beating Bookies since March 2006
I don't think its necessary to arb unless you have nothing else to do . If I was starting out or advising anyone on advantage gambling , my advice would be -
Open as many accounts as you can , if you can avoid using moneybookers or been RAF'ed by someone , do that , when you get a free bet don't stick it at odds of above 7 . Don't deposit the exact amount to meet the max bonus on site , don't always bet the max amount allowed . Don't hound customer service when your free bet isin't in within 24 hours of placing your first bet .Mix up your betting don't only bet on weak lines , if you have to bet on a weak line at least make it a double or treble and lay the other 1 or 2 legs seperate . Don't sign up to somewhere without reading the terms and conditions yourself , just because its on the forum that x,y or z got away with it , it doesn't mean you will . Every time you place a bet think that if A wins how much will i have here or there ,don't get stuck with too much money in one book if you only have a small float .
Don't just click "new posts " and sign up to the next bookie on the list at TGT or MSE or whatever , why not read back to 2009 and start there , you won't stand out signing up with 100 or 500 others .
Learn foreign words for betting , like Apuesta and wetten and other key words that you can search for sites yourself , if you have nothing to do you can go on live chat or email bookies before you deposit and ask for a reload (sometimes you get lucky) . Don't waste money betting on shit yankees or stuff you have no clue about . Only ever mug when you feel you have an advantage , don't back a team to win because Andy Gray says they will win , if you wanna mug take an opinion on a few games and place small bets if it works out place larger bets , nobody wins all the time . Don't play at casinos unless you have patience and know you won't go on a bender and lose your money and be pissed off for days . Don't drink and gamble .
If you have done every single book out there then maybe start arbing but theres 1000's of books , and sign up to them all even if theres no bonus .
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which is an obvious whoring strategy and can occasionally provoke books to look more closely at the account, particularly dodgy underfunded ones.
Originally Posted by LFC81Eoin
Guys this is incredible, alot of really good info and advice for us noobs here! Thank you for taking the time!
I do have a fair few dormant accounts which I hit and ran from, but at the time it was required as I needed the money for the next bookie, and had a fairly small float. Though I should have used DireEmblem's method on the previous page there perhaps, rather than relying solely on the exchange for matching. Better to know now than never though!
When I have the float to arb with I will start to use the dormant ones that don't offer reloads again (starting small and slow though to stay under the radar), its probably good that I can't yet, because this way I can identify these books over time.
Munk, I am not sure about this value betting....I can see the reasoning behind it, and perhaps if my bank roll was bigger I would experiment with it, but for now its a no go zone, thanks for outlining it though!...adding it to the 'someday/maybe' list :P
LFC81Eoin, I am guilty of some of those already....but I will keep these in mind from now on. Particularly the casino bonus part....I need to do alot of learning before I even go near em. When you say avoid moneybookers, does that apply to all online wallets? I am not a big fan of giving masses of bookies my bank details see, and it does take a while to shift funds back and fourth, and again, for a small float, that can be crippling.
A thing I would like to add as well (so as not to feel like I cant give back! :P) is not to rush through qualifying bets. I did this once and got gubbed for it....happy St Paddies day btw :P
Fantastic advice and I really do agree with it. Wish I had known this before I started, could of saved some accounts (Lost a few for no good reason and one for a good reason)
But I think that’s the problem you only ever realise the most efficient way to do this once it’s too late. It takes a long time to get experience of how bookies work and what will help keep accounts etc and once you know it the likelihood is that you have signed up to 50+ bookies and have a few gubbed.
I’ve got a question which is completely off topic When you hear about “pro” gamblers (not so much match betting) how to they make a profit? Is it the value betting method munk explained or just a case of studying a market, such as, horses and becoming an expert on everything within that market? Similar to say a gold trader.
One day you have it........Next it's AllGone
I'm going to give a completely different viewpoint really, just to add to the other side of the argument which is to hit the bookies hard and then run. Was reading through the thread and this jumped out as exactly my attitude at the minute:
Here's a question to answer your question: Can you see yourself doing this in 2/3 years time?
Originally Posted by musicbox
If yes - then you need to follow the general advice of the thread. If you're in it for the long run, then don't wear a t-shirt with bonus abuser emblazoned on it by betting at ridiculous odds on the Swedish 4th division correct score market. But there is enough of that advice on this thread.
I'm in the no category - I'm at uni for the next 3 years, but after that, I really can't see myself doing this at all. I can't even really see myself doing it much at uni to be honest.
If you're in that category, then, as musicbox said, dig for diamonds. I use SJ a lot for dutching, but if there are decent odds, I deposit £X, wager £X, and if necessary, then withdraw £X. I will get gubbed. I've bet on ridiculous things over the last few months, and always deposit and withdraw the exact amount immediately before and after. And when it happens, it'll be a bummer. But in my situation, there is no point in having an SJ account open in 4 years time, so I may as well use it as best I can now.
The other thing is your float - mine is tiny at the minute as most has been spent on travels. I'm making 10% of what people are making per day during Cheltenham, but then I have 10% of the float and are doing different things with it. You can't possibly think about arbing successfully unless you have the float to do it. To my mind, risking £1500 to make a £10 profit ain't worth it - if I make a mistake 1 in every 100 times, then arbing for me is -EV (I don't, but something worth thinking about).
I could go on but that's probably made the point - it's only worth protecting accounts if they need protecting. In 10 years time, if you're gubbed at SJ for a £50 profit arb you made 5 years ago, and you feel bad about it, then you made a horrendous mistake and should quite rightly regret doing it.
But if on the other hand, in 10 years time, you've made 2 mug punts at another bookie and that's it, then that arb was definitely worth it
I see where you are coming from, and what I am getting from all of this, is that you can have a 'macro' strategy, where you can either hit, run and arb till gubbage or play it slow and steady and keep under the radar for every bookie. Alternitively you could have a 'micro' strategy for each particular bookie, you hit and run and arb till gubbage on X because they give you nothing in regards to reloads, but you play it slow and steady with Y because they give you regular reloads.
I like the micro strategy as it kinda mixes the best of both worlds IMO. I dont know how long I will keep it up, but I know I dont want to do it forever, so I think I will adopt this one. If you knew you wanted to do this forever or you had a target date to make as much as possible, then a macro strategy would take out the hassle of having to think about each particular bookie.
Micro, macro....yup, I am a geek. I make no apology :P
Im my opinion if you are arbing make sure you are using decent stakes to make it worthwhile. Getting a feel for arbing I would hit the out of line odds, but only with small stakes. I'm now firmly of the opinion that if you are hitting out of line odds at any stake it will get you noticed - even if you lose. I may have well of staked 4 figure bets on these and made the profit rather than compromised the accounts for a few quid.
In terms of longevity I don't think I will be as active in the long term, but I certainly won't ignore easy reloads if they popped into my inbox - it would be very hard to. Someone once posted (in relation to not ignoring the smaller offers), "if you saw a tenner on the other side of the street would you put the effort in to wait for the traffic to pass, cross the street and bend down to pick it up?" Some of the reloads are like finding money in the street and I think I'll be doing those for as long as they send them.
Back to arbing; an area I am keen to explore further is cross market arbing and middles. I'm sure this could be quite lucrative and may extend the life of accounts, although probably not much.
I thing I hated about arbing ,which now rarely do, was the constant stress of it.I mostly arbed on Fridays and tuesdays and had to stay really focussed.Things move really quick and that leaves you open to mistakes no matter what arbing service you are using or if you are looking for the arbs yourself.For newcomers I really recommend learning the ins and outs of match betting opening new accounts ,not arbing. Understand how things work and learn your math. You should not only rely on software and spreadsheets; you really have to understand whats happenning and why. Not fast and easy money here .Sorry,folks .There IS a learning curve for us all
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