
Premium Member
Originally Posted by Andy
You do have twice as much chance of winning this there is not a fixed number of tickets for sale, just a fixed number of winning numbers. The more combinations you hold, the greater your chances of one hitting.
As another interesting side point whilst we are discussing lotteries your best chance to make a profit is to buy just one ticket. All other things remaining equal (and assuming fixed prize money and winning combinations) if you bought every ticket on a normal week, after admin costs, donation to charity, etc etc you are garunteed to make a loss. Working backwards from that, the fewer tickets you buy, the more chance there is of profit. (Note profit, not just winning).
I can't really get this point accross easily but two attempts at a 1 in 14million chance will have no real bearing on your chances of winning it. If you buy 100 tickets your chance of winning barely changes due to the rareness of the combination required.
You can't make a profit on the lottery as it is not +EV unless there are rollovers. All you are doing by buying one ticket is reducing your total loss  but the % loss remains the same.

Premium Member
The Scoop Six is a far better bet than the lottery. It goes +EV quite regularly and the chances of winning are far more realistic. Also there is scope for making it a lot more +EV if you have a very good knowledge of racing. It's no accident that it frequently gets won by betting syndicates and the like. One of the CH4 racing team won a huge sum on the it last year, I think it was a six figure sum.

Senior Member
Originally Posted by s0095063
A wee bit off topic, but one of my work colleagues at uni reckons he has a system which increases his return on the lottery.
He didn't go into specifics, but it was to do with picking unpopular number combinations so that when 4 or more numbers hit he gets a better than average payout.
There is an interesting article on the subject here: What's luck got to do with it? The math of gambling.
The gist of it is to go for numbers above 31, and pick ones that are situated around the edges of the ticket. Then if you do win, you'll win big.

Senior Member
Originally Posted by Diamondgeezer
I can't really get this point accross easily but two attempts at a 1 in 14million chance will have no real bearing on your chances of winning it. If you buy 100 tickets your chance of winning barely changes due to the rareness of the combination required.
We're not talking about the 'real' chances of winning (whatever you think they are), but we're talking about mathematics behind it/probability of winning.


Senior Member
Good luck Dave I may give this a go as well.

Premium Member
Originally Posted by Diamondgeezer
You can't make a profit on the lottery as it is not +EV unless there are rollovers. All you are doing by buying one ticket is reducing your total loss  but the % loss remains the same.
This statement ALWAYS confuses me. Can some one dumb it down for me.
The lottery is EV,
I buy a £1 ticket on a given day
I win £6million on a 1 in 14million shot.
I finish £5999999 up.
But I didn't profit?
A wise man told me don't argue with fools, cos people from a distance can't tell who is who ~ Jay Z

Premium Member
Originally Posted by Super_Dash
This statement ALWAYS confuses me. Can some one dumb it down for me.
The lottery is EV,
I buy a £1 ticket on a given day
I win £6million on a 1 in 14million shot.
I finish £5999999 up.
But I didn't profit?
You did but over the long run you will lose, after playing another 6 million tickets you will be back at £1 . So if you did win that £6million and kept playing for approx another 50 lifetimes, you would be down.

Senior Member
Originally Posted by Super_Dash
This statement ALWAYS confuses me. Can some one dumb it down for me.
The lottery is EV,
I buy a £1 ticket on a given day
I win £6million on a 1 in 14million shot.
I finish £5999999 up.
But I didn't profit?
No, you did profit. However, you would not profit in the long term. The lottery is EV because the payout generally doesn't reflect the true odds of winning. It is still possible (as with all games of chance) to make a profit in the short term though.

Premium Member
Originally Posted by Dave
I have decided to set myself a challenge........ to win the lottery!
For the past decade at least I've been entering the lottery every Weds and Sat and the most I've ever won was £62  and that was fecking ages ago!!! Soooo.... taking into account the gamblers adages of 'I have to win it sooner or later' and 'if I buy 2 tickets I've got twice as much chance of winning the lottery', I've decided to Martingale the lottery....
How does it work? Well I'm too late for tonight's lottery so I'll start next week, and the plan is: buy 1 ticket for next weeks lottery... buy 2 the week after... 3 the week after that... etc etc.. til I win the Jackpot! I know that isn't 'technically' Martingaling, but if I did it properly by doubling up each time then I'd be buying £4096 tickets after 3 months and that's just too scary!! I'm only gonna enter the Saturday lottery so it's weekly, and I'm gonna stick to buying 'lucky dip' tickets so there's no worries about getting used to doing the same numbers. I'll report back here what my numbers are each week when I've bought my ticket and I'll let you all know when I'm a millionaire (I predict I'll win it after week 6 ).
I'll probably carry it on for about 3 months and see how it goes but whatever happens, it'll be an interesting experiment....
Anyone else up for the challenge!? This has gotta be post of the month material if someone wins the bigun!!
I just don't get this. There is no difference between buying 70 tickets for one draw and doing 2 a week for 35 weeks. All you are doing is spending your cash at a different point in time. Your 'system' is not a system because it is a non system.
When the lottery first came out a lot of people thought that if you bought say 10 tickets you would have a 1.4 million chance of winning instead of a 1 in 14 million chance but all you are getting is 10 attempts at a 1 in 14 million chance. So buying more tickets won't really give you any more chance. Even if you bought 1000 your chances would be no better in reality simply becasue the thing is so remote in the first place. You could put £5K into it and your chance of winning would still be mind bogglingly remote.
By all means have a go if you enjoy it but how can this be a system?
Instead of doubling down why not wait for a triple rollover and invest the £70 on less common numbers like the OP said.
If you invested £70 on the Scoop Six with a high jackpot it would be a vastly better use of your money. The Scoop Six is a lottery with horses in but the odds of a big win are massively better than the National Lottery. I know it's only a bit of fun but the lottery is one of the worst bets there is.
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