Would be fascinating to have access to all of betfair's historical data. Wonder what the result would be had you bet every bet to ever hit evens at betfair? Barring commission and assuming a perfect market and and same stake you should be where you started. Maybe I'll email them and ask for all their data please...
It is possible to make a profit from just sportsbets at bookmakers if (as has been gone into) you only bet on the markets where they have got it wrong AND crucially you manage your bankroll well and have a large enough bankroll to cover the variance.
I cant do it. But I know people who can and do.
RE Betfair being perfect true odds, it is as good as you will get I think but it is not perfect. They dropped the "smart minds" slogan a while ago
For a start which Betfair price is the one you would use? it is constantly changing in the build up to kick off. A team can be matched in volume from anything from 1.8 to 2.2 in the 24hrs before the game thats not particularly unheard of. Which odds do you use? The very last price matched before kick off? The one where most money was matched? Would you add them all up and divide them all and get the mean average over time?
Betfair is a good guide but for the reason above alone you can see how it is not perfect.
Have a plan and stick to it
taking the stoke/liverpool game as an example, i laid liverpool @ 1.71 (which is just the worst away price for a team ive seen all season) this was during their fa cup replay vs reading
by the end of that game they had drifted out to 1.80, by the time K.O came on saturday liverpool were out to 2.40. the odds shift day to day. you just have to back/lay when the value is there
laying liverpool at 1.71 away to stoke is a just a layers dream, liverpool @ 2.40 all the value has gone in the lay
price it up yourself before even looking at the industry odds and this will give you an idea of a figure in your head, once youve done that tske a look at the odds on offer, if you are getting alot more than what you would happilly take then its value and you should back it
if i price up something 4/5 and im getting 10/11 there isnt too much value there and i probably wouldnt entertain it but if i price it up at 4/5 and getting 11/10-6/5 then ill snap that up
a prime example was last saturdays cov/qpr match, i had cov around 4/5 so was more than happy to back them at just over 11/10
if i team is alot lower than the odds i have then i will look to lay them, i had liverpool priced @ 6/4 away to stoke so you can imagine my delight at laying them at 1.71 as i said saturday they were 2.40 at K.O so not much value left in the lay
I always tell people to have a figure in your head before looking at the prices on offer becuase once youve seen whats on offer if clouds your judgement. just take a handful of games and write down what price you would want if you were a backer. then once you have done that see whats on offer and see how much value you are getting
I agree that you can make a profit with sportsbetting , I do make a proit with sportsbetting and I think i always will , my biggest problem is excepting losses , i absloutely hate losing bets , i hate losing 500 even if i have made 1000 the night before . From a mixture of things now i am becoming more consistant , i have devised a staking plan that will help me through .
Just from talking to people weather it be on here or in the street you get a fair idea of weather you think think they can profit from sportsbetting or not , i think in the long run you have to know the sport your betting on inside out , know whose injured etc etc , past results , i look at a team that played bad and should of lost even if they won there last 10 games if i think they were lucky etc . i keep that in mind .
I nearly exclusively bet on the premier league and what often f*cks me up is backing a premier league team in a cup game against a lower league team , looking at league positions is not enough for me if i havent watched palace play i shouldnt be backing villa to beat them because i assume they will .
This week , i layed spurs away to bolton they were even money , you can argue the toss that they should of got the win had they scored the pen but they didnt .
I also layed barcelona away to athletico because i follow that league .
My biggest problems are betting on things i know nothing about , dont watch enough italien football to make a decisive decision but still layed 500 on man utd last night , stupid really .
But i layed man city absolutely crazy as todd said to make man city favourites there over rated team , rubish away from home , i layed 500 on them but should of layed 1000 . I feel i will continue to do well and profit as long as i stick to the premier league and back what i know .
Fair play to you if you do do it - I must admit I find the posts about tips fascinating and seeing what people have laid / bet though I know I would be terrible at it so don't bother.
I think with regards to andy's point about time shifting odds I believe the argument is that at any given time the odds would be correct even if that means they can vary sometimes widly over a short period of time. However, right now - whenever you read this - the betfair price is the "correct" one - that is it reflects the truest possible odds. Without some massive data mining exercise however I admit there is no way of proving it.
I'm on of those who subscribes to the "value" way of mugging, i.e. I think a bet is a good bet if the odds are longer than they should be (than I think they should be) regardless of whether I think the bet will win.
I almost never ever mug on things like football, simply because I have no knowledge (or any other edge) that leads me to think I have a better idea than oddscompilers/BF of what'll happen. So for me footy mugging would be very similar to something like roulette or BJ - I might beat the odds for awhile but it's essentially a -EV pursuit & I'm highly likely to lose in the long run. Same goes for lots of other sports (all team sports for example).
Although it sounds crass, if I had to pick a medium to try to make a profit from purely mugging-wise it might well be special bets (X-Factor, BB & all that other reality stuff). On these events bookies are essentially clueless with no inside info & anyone paying attention to the programmes has a decent chance to beat the odds IMO.
But personally I mainly mug for fun on events I'm intending to watch anyway, esp horse racing, tennis, golf, snooker etc. The odd flutter on double-figure selections in those events won't bankrupt you & can make it a lot more exiting with the occasional decent payday.
Since we are all in the gambling "scene", does anyone know anyone making vast sums from sportsbetting?