Grand National percentages

[Diamondgeezer]

Aye, I was wondering actually, if BF will have an ad in next weeks RP. Last time I checked (just before the off) DPI was 10/1 with the bookies & still 19.5 on BF!

I can't believe this!!! You see not knowing I thought it must be say 12.5 at worst.

It must be collusion between the on course bookies. I mean you would take every last pound if you can lay at 11 and back at 19.5. And to get more money in you would offer say 13 oncourse and take a load more cash! It seems to me the oncourse bookies are huge winners in this if they have a captive market and they are all colluding.

If they all keep the prices low all the oncourse bookies get a slice of the action and the firms are happy. So it is in both their interests.

Is this how it works?

[butty]

I'm a huge advocate of personal responsibility & in general I hate over-regulation of most kinds.

ok sounds good

I still think you have to draw a sensible line somewhere though.

Mmm the force of martin lewis is strong

It's simply not feasible to expect the non-punting masses to be able to understand something as relatively complex as gambling overrounds! I can guarantee plenty of people on this site couldn't tell you how to calculate the overround percentage of a given book.

Bit patronising & its not complex - simplistically though it's looking at whats available price-wise and paying the price for not bothering/understanding.

That being the case, bookmakers should not be simply milking the public dry, just because they can.

The bookies responsibility is to maximise it's value to it's shareholders

I woldn't object to the bookies making a fair, or even an unfair profit on a race like this. If they bet to something like 130% (ordinarily daylight robbery) I would probably shrug & think "you can't blame them". But steadily increasing their percentage up to insane amounts like a 155% overround book is simply indefensible IMO.

Again no-one is forced to take these prices

Incidentally it's also very bad business on their part, even mugs learn eventually that there are better options.

Maybe / maybe not - it's tricky to underestimate the ignorance of the general public.

[LFC81Eoin]

Butty i think you missing the point altogether , I remember been brought to the bookies when i was younger and my da placing bets on horses for me and my my siblings , on the day you pick a horse and its a bit of fun , the bookies are just taking the piss here , they know well its the one time in a year that people will bet and robbing them is totally wrong .

To be honest though mate , i actually don't know weather you agree with whats been posted or not or are just playing devils advocate you seem to disagree alot with things and write sarcastic things in the chatbox . I apologise if i got you wrong , but its great thread and an interesting read for me .

[Andy]

Well its been an interesting thread. Everything Fella says is true and a lot of it I had never realised quite how blatant/bad it was, the two horses running at 1.29 was a great example which put it in black and white and really hit home.

At the same time I am still with Carson and Butty, bookmakers are not running charities and if somebody wants to bet at odds of X they can and if X is not high enough for them then dont. The ball is in your court. If it was Gas or Electric or Petrol or something else you HAVE to buy then yes there should be strict regulation to prevent abuse and prices should (and are) regulated by an official watchdog to prevent abuse. However betting on the National is entirely optional. It is not the bookmakers responsibility to only offer value bets it is the responsibility of every person placing a bet to only take value.

As another thought the bookmakers will be making £X profit a year regardless. I would rather it was £2 from every one of the masses who just lose that £2 on the National in a one off punt rather than the bookies take £20k from one chap who has an addiction and now cant support his wife and kids.

Its an interesting thread though and one to think about. I am in favour of personal responsibility though no way should a bookmaker ever be told "you cant offer those odds they are too low" they can "offer" anything they want to as long as it is clear exactly what you get for your money. Nobody was mis sold anything, everybody knew there were 40 horses, the odds available on each were not exactly small print it was plastered about in bold in the shop windows. Yes it was a crap bet in "value" terms but if somebody wanted to take it then thats up to them.

The bookmaker quotes whinging about it afterwards are a bit much though, I always get angry when I read those sort of quotes.

[Kranz]

My 2 cents:

155% overround seems a bit too much and gives the punter terrible value for money. Did Eoin say a bookie paid his brother 9/2 on Don't Push It? That's taking the piss.

I tell folks in work that DPI was about 18/1 on betfair compared to 10/1 SP with the bookies and they absolutely don't give a shit. I suppose the point of Mug punting is a bit of entertainment and not about value for money.

I think advantage players have to thank the Mug Punters, for without them, the Bookmakers would not offer us such generous Loss-Leaders- the SUBs and arbs.

If they all managed lines properly like Pinnacle and the other Asians, we wouldn't make money, no matter who low the Over-round.

[wndllll]

I think advantage players have to thank the Mug Punters, for without them, the Bookmakers would not offer us such generous Loss-Leaders- the SUBs and arbs.

Wise words.

This has been a fantastic read by the way, I'm very impressed with the quality of writing and opinions about something that I noticed (all the prices coming in and none going out at the GN) but just didn't have the general "gambling" knowledge to put into words.

I'm equally as shocked as you are Fella regarding the on-course overround, however armed with knowledge as we are, we as a community still managed to profit from this event and surely that's the point. Threads such as: http://www.thegamblingtimes.com/boar...lay-later.html
meant that I profited greatly from DPI's win but we are the lucky few in a sea of Aunty Joans placing their £2 on a horse that sounds like their grandchilds name.

It was always obvious that bookies use the GN as their biggest exploit of the year and who can really blame them? It's thankfully a freemarket out there and any bookie could always offer a slightly better price than the one next to them if it wasn't so obvious that it makes no difference on this one day of the year.

[Fella]

Bit patronising & its not complex - simplistically though it's looking at whats available price-wise and paying the price for not bothering/understanding.

Maybe / maybe not - it's tricky to underestimate the ignorance of the general public.

Um, make your mind up!

[zenmaster]

Given this info next year just blindly back the top 10 horses using all those special enchanced price offers in the week or so before then lay them near the off waiting for the bookies to do their deed?

Oh and betfair had a banner about 1 hour after the race called National disgrace Dont push it sp 10/1 @ bookies 18.7 (18 something thats for sure) betfair SP.

[LFC81Eoin]

I think its sad to read this thread , I think its alot whats wrong with the world today , people don't seem to have any morals any more .

I don't know what its like in England but there are towns in Ireland with only one bookmakers shop so people have only one choice or they have to travel a few miles to the next bookmaker .

All the arguments i here are the same " they don't have to take that price" they can "shop around " there "mug punts help Advantage players " , what about just doing the right thing ?? Just price up a book as you would every other day of the week , what about doing the right thing cause its the right thing to do ??

Society lately is obsessed with people just thinking of themselves and wanting as much as they can for themselves , i don't know how people can't think of the someone else, i was +3k if Bigfellathanks came in , but the first thing i did before the race was find out who my nephew had his few quid on cause i knew he'd be watching the race this year and it was his first year understanding it , of course i cheered on his horse more than mine , my point is kids mothers grandmothers fathers are going down to have a fun bet and they are been giving terrible odds , worse than people get all year round because the bookie decides he wants to take even more profit.

There is nothing legally wrong with what the bookie is doing but its morally wrong , i heard an argument on the radio the other day about "legal highs" and the shop owner was saying the same thing "people don't have to buy them " etc etc im doing nothing illegal , how about just doing the right thing in life and living your life the right way . I've had loads of times when i used to work for myself to charge whatever i wanted but i always charged a fair price , i have always done the right thing morally regardless of the law and karma has always been good to me , hopefully the bookies will get bad karma from this.

[musicbox]

I just wonder where the challenge is. Is there no battle of wits anymore? Was there ever? Couldn't we all profit from people betting once a year that have no clue about odds and who pick horses on the basis that the horse shares the name of their first born or simply looks like them? I know people who will ignore you saying that they can take a horse @ 40/1 in one shop because they always use Hills and it's 25/1 in there. Surely with so much money around from people like us, isn't the challenge to take us on and share the profits a bit? Seriously, if you need to balance up, call me and I'll help you do that so long as it's an arb. You're all balanced now, I have some vimto in my glass, you have some champagne in yours and we all go to bed happy. Don't limit me to £0. What's that about? Let me have £50 and I'll make £1 profit per bet and you can move your lines and keep nice and tidy. Come on, live a little. Life's too short to hold grudges against people who don't want to take half the odds they can get at Betfair. But are they any worse than me...

From the time you turn 16, I'll give you the chance to win £10 on a 1 in 56 shot but divert you away from these odds by having an unimaginable jackpot figure take centre stage.

I'll have a primetime Saturday night show on the nation's main tv channel which uses gameshows, popstars and other celebrities of the day to package my product into something acceptable.

This isn't ugly gambling my friends. How could it be? I'll have JLS pressing the button that changes your life, or Dale Winton. And if JLS doesn't appeal to you because you're old and don't wear tshirts with cardigans then, just for you my old dears, I'll have some strange men in white gloves passing notes between themselves while pretending to be on a telephone in the gallery. They've not seen action in years. They want you *points*

And if you're an untalented TV presenter who can't get a break in TV, I'll appeal to you by having the hosts of the programmes as people who shouldn't be allowed near a camera, nevermind in front of one. TV wannabees, it could be you! No really, it could be you and these presenters prove it.

I'll throw in some marketing campaigns suggesting just how amazing your life could be, the kind of ads a bookmaker probably couldn't get away with for fear of breaching advertising codes regarding the glamorisation of gambling. And I'll call it the National Lottery. Be proud of your National Lottery people because one day you'll be playing with the Spanish at this and they will run your ragged all over the park.

Just in case all this wasn't enough, some of that £56 that you lose to win your £10 will be given to a good cause. So you're not only helping me, you're helping someone else too. Someone who really needs your help that you obviously couldn't help without giving me the money first.

What do you mean, you're not sure? Ok, if that's not enough then I promise that by 2012 I'll also have done some tarmacing for Paula Radcliffe. (I googled to check my spelling of tarmacing and I suggest you don't do the same)

Thank you for buying a ticket. Now I've got you, I'll then make it possible to do all this instantly by scratching a card. Go on, have another. I know you like to scratch. You'll be 17 soon and you're still going to be a year away from being able to bet your £56 on a 1.91 shot that really should be evens. I guess you don't want to be rich?

Mwahahaha