Read betterbetting's post carefully and you can hopefully see why what you said isn't actually true.
Originally Posted by cmcrick1980
People will bust out at approximately the rate of the odds which they are betting at and in the end the bookie will always lose money from offering freebets.
I suppose it might be possible to arrange a freebet system that didn't lose money, but it wouldn't be tailored to match bettors.
For instance, you could have a post wager freebet where you have to wager 100X the value of the freebet. So wager through £2000 and get a £20 freebet. Then the bookie juice will cover the cost of the freebet (especially if they have odds like BetNow).
True, it's all over my head to be honest as a newbie I just thought that if, say, six out of every seven new depositors bust out then the bookies would be in the money, but as you say the seventh person who doesn't will make 7x their deposit so I guess that all cancels out. So I suppose all free bets do in the end come out of their profits.
Originally Posted by slim
I'm sure the free bets must attract new punters who stick around, though. I'm not sure how many people out there actually know about MBing, and if they do the number who have the time and patience to do it must be pretty small. At a wild guess I'd say there are probably only a few thousand in the UK so as a percentage of the overall number of online gamblers that would be a very small amount. Maybe we are worrying about it too much? I don't know, but I hope so.
Oh yes, that's a very good point. Overall the freebets do make most bookies money in the end, that's why they offer them. They're lost leaders to just get the numbers in and the turnover higher. Like you say, some of the people getting free bets are regular punters who will lose money in the long run. As long as those losses keep the bookie making money overall then they're keep offering freebets. Long may it continue!
Originally Posted by cmcrick1980
I think to some extent Betnow's business model does approach what you're talking about - they offer pretty poor odds which are hooked in to Betfair's prices but their service is actually very good, CS is very good and they do offer very decent 100% 1xWR free bet bonuses. I would imagine to some extent they have calculated that by having a larger than normal overround, part of which is used to cover their marketing costs (ie free bet promos), they can go forward and make it work for them.
Originally Posted by youdoo
Time will tell of course, they have stopped offering as many reloads since the World Cup, hopefully things will pick up again though once the EPL starts mid August.
Another similar case in point is where books offer 'ifbet' promotions - in those situations they will manipulate their book in such a way that they can cover the potential liability that would be incurred if the match ends in a certain way by offering a book with a much larger overround than usual. Any bets placed they accept on that market can be laid off for a much larger profit than normal because of that increased overround which in turn covers any costs they incur if the match ends in a scenario where they have to 'pay out' on the punter's winning 'ifbets'.