Could a bookie embrace matched betters?

[slim]

I'm not sure why bookies are that bothered about MBing. More often than not people bust out on their first deposit then the free bet, so the bookie has made money even if the person doesn't come back. I don't think it's that big a deal to them, to be honest.

Read betterbetting's post carefully and you can hopefully see why what you said isn't actually true.

People will bust out at approximately the rate of the odds which they are betting at and in the end the bookie will always lose money from offering freebets.

I suppose it might be possible to arrange a freebet system that didn't lose money, but it wouldn't be tailored to match bettors.

For instance, you could have a post wager freebet where you have to wager 100X the value of the freebet. So wager through £2000 and get a £20 freebet. Then the bookie juice will cover the cost of the freebet (especially if they have odds like BetNow).

[cmcrick1980]

Read betterbetting's post carefully and you can hopefully see why what you said isn't actually true.

People will bust out at approximately the rate of the odds which they are betting at and in the end the bookie will always lose money from offering freebets.

I suppose it might be possible to arrange a freebet system that didn't lose money, but it wouldn't be tailored to match bettors.

For instance, you could have a post wager freebet where you have to wager 100X the value of the freebet. So wager through £2000 and get a £20 freebet. Then the bookie juice will cover the cost of the freebet (especially if they have odds like BetNow).

True, it's all over my head to be honest as a newbie I just thought that if, say, six out of every seven new depositors bust out then the bookies would be in the money, but as you say the seventh person who doesn't will make 7x their deposit so I guess that all cancels out. So I suppose all free bets do in the end come out of their profits.

I'm sure the free bets must attract new punters who stick around, though. I'm not sure how many people out there actually know about MBing, and if they do the number who have the time and patience to do it must be pretty small. At a wild guess I'd say there are probably only a few thousand in the UK so as a percentage of the overall number of online gamblers that would be a very small amount. Maybe we are worrying about it too much? I don't know, but I hope so.

[slim]

I'm sure the free bets must attract new punters who stick around, though. I'm not sure how many people out there actually know about MBing, and if they do the number who have the time and patience to do it must be pretty small. At a wild guess I'd say there are probably only a few thousand in the UK so as a percentage of the overall number of online gamblers that would be a very small amount. Maybe we are worrying about it too much? I don't know, but I hope so.

Oh yes, that's a very good point. Overall the freebets do make most bookies money in the end, that's why they offer them. They're lost leaders to just get the numbers in and the turnover higher. Like you say, some of the people getting free bets are regular punters who will lose money in the long run. As long as those losses keep the bookie making money overall then they're keep offering freebets. Long may it continue!

[cmcrick1980]

Oh yes, that's a very good point. Overall the freebets do make most bookies money in the end, that's why they offer them. They're lost leaders to just get the numbers in and the turnover higher. Like you say, some of the people getting free bets are regular punters who will lose money in the long run. As long as those losses keep the bookie making money overall then they're keep offering freebets. Long may it continue!

Hear, hear, I'll drink to that.

I've only just started but I'm enjoying it already...plus I'm nearly up to 50 quid profit

Unfortunately I've just backed a 10/1 shot with my deposit at my new bookie so that has put a halt to proceedings today! I could withdraw it but I'd rather wait for the £25 free bet to be credited before I do.

Oh well!

[munk]

I've been wondering though, what if a bookie offered a regular % matched bet? Say each week you could get a single special bet where they'd match it by 50%. This approach would mean two things, 1) the MBers would be all over it and 2) the MBers would be looking for high odd matches, as a matched bet is treated the same as a SNR.

If the bookie is clever enough, they'd use APIs to keep their odds under Betfairs and the other exchanges and thus eliminate any truly weak lines (in a match better's eyes).

By embracing MBers they'd be getting high numbers of repeat visitors every week all of whom would be looking to bust out at their book. AND because of the way they tailor their offer they'd be getting them betting on the least likely outcomes. Sure, they'd have to pay out more occasionally but that wouldn't necessarily mean they'd lose money a 7.0 is a 7.0 for a reason not a whim.

I just think bookies trying to gub MBers are missing a trick here, they could be using them to effectively pipe money from the exchanges!

I'd be interested to see what others think? And whether I've totally missed a big point!

I think to some extent Betnow's business model does approach what you're talking about - they offer pretty poor odds which are hooked in to Betfair's prices but their service is actually very good, CS is very good and they do offer very decent 100% 1xWR free bet bonuses. I would imagine to some extent they have calculated that by having a larger than normal overround, part of which is used to cover their marketing costs (ie free bet promos), they can go forward and make it work for them.

Time will tell of course, they have stopped offering as many reloads since the World Cup, hopefully things will pick up again though once the EPL starts mid August.

Another similar case in point is where books offer 'ifbet' promotions - in those situations they will manipulate their book in such a way that they can cover the potential liability that would be incurred if the match ends in a certain way by offering a book with a much larger overround than usual. Any bets placed they accept on that market can be laid off for a much larger profit than normal because of that increased overround which in turn covers any costs they incur if the match ends in a scenario where they have to 'pay out' on the punter's winning 'ifbets'.