Just backed an extra £8 on the greek game (that's started).
It;s not a full covering bet but makes the loss a manageable one if the greek underdogs win.
If they lose as they "should" I have in effect a £150 bet on a brazillian tema that are 2.32 but I have in effect odds of 3.13.
I can lock in a profit of £35 but with covering bets I will have lost £5.
Lot of effort for a loss. But you've gotta try these things.
I think I'm beginning to get it, but am still a little confused, so can I just double check please. If I'm doing a £50 multiple stake, I choose 4 outsiders & one at odds of about 2 & lay those in my multiple, I then need to put a back bet on them all somewhere. Does each back bet need to cover the full £50 stake? For example the one at around 2 would I need to put a full £50 on it or do you just back it for a few pounds?
Originally Posted by doomed
It depends whether you want to skew your maximum profits to all 5 selections in your 5-fold winning, or to any 4 winning, or to a particular 4 winning, or something in between.
Originally Posted by Swift
Personally, I target the same profit regardless of whether 4 or 5 win. To achieve this, each back bet needs to cover the potential profit from the 5-fold multi winning.
For example, my £50 multi on Sunday would return £118 after commission if it won, so £68 net profit (before back bets). Each of my back bets would have returned £68 had it won. This cost me a total of £53 in back bets.
If there are 4 winners in my multi, I get £50 (multi refund) - £50 (multi stake) + £68 (back bet return) - £53 (back bet stakes) = £15 profit
If there are 5 winners (which there were in fact), I get £118 (multi return) - £50 (multi stake) - £53 (back bet stakes) = £15 profit
I could have chosen to cover anything between £41 and £87 with my back bets without incurring a loss under any outcome. With the lower amount, I would achieved a profit of £36 with 5 winners, £9 with 4, and £0 with 3. With the higher amount, the profit would have been £0 with 5, £19 with 4, and £56 with 3. So you can see there's no one "right" amount - it's depends how you want to play it.
Thanks, that makes sense! I think my brain was about to explode trying to work it out earlier!
I had a little play around with this last night, trying different selections for a multiple bet & working out how much I would want to place for a back bet, but kept having the same problem what ever I done. Laying 4 outsiders in my multiple & backing them else where was fine, but I had problems with the 5th selection for the multiple.
If I back an outsider in the multiple then I need to lay it somewhere else, but because it's at high odds I would be risking more money than I would be making & if I went with a lay at about evens on my 5th choice in the multiple & backed it elsewhere I then had the same problem because I need to back it for about the same as I would be making.
Sorry for all the questions, I spent ages last night trying different things but just couldn't work it out!
I am getting very steaky results.
On horses you don't know the SP and this is costing me lots when I get winners.
On footy the problem is long enough shots and games starting all together.
My history is:
Last week: Did horse multiples - all lost first race (messed one up so lost £20).
I had layed £20 on other days so cost 3 x 96p.
Got back £40 refund so made £17 even with a mess £20 up.
Saturday did the 5fold footy:
Found 5 all at different times.
Layed off the outsiders.
One won at 50/1 so I made £200 ish.
But I did this as well as wife and mother and screwed up. 2 legs lost but I had mistakenly back betted as doubles. I layed partly after the outsider won but ended up £100 down!!
But this was a daily profit of £97.
Put bets on - then found out I had put on an invalid 5 fold.
Game ended 12:15!
All first 4 legs won. If the multiple had been within T&C's I could have secured about £95 but as there was no refund I could only make £7.
I took a chance and skewed if to a small loss or a bigger win. They won so I made £30.
IF i had left it as a pure mug I'd have won £350!!
But up £30.
Yesterday I started the midweek horse trebles.
First horse picked at about 5 hoping to lose out (layed £20) - it won (lost £57).
Second horse was evens - pondered letting it ride. But layed off £118. It won - so I lost a further £118.
I didn't like this. The cost of laying the last leg was going to be £17 - and I was only chasing a £10 refund.
So coz my bets were up I biased the lay so I would lose about £50 or win big.
The last horse was 4/1 ish.
I made £340.
2nd day of it (today):
First horse won (odds moved and cost me £3.40 - lost £47!!
I have underlayed the second hoping for a win.
I can see a loss happening today.
I have done a 5fold but games run in parallel.
I have layed all of them to varying amounts but I actually stand to lose £190 id absolutely everything goes against me.
But we wil see.
Here's a bad problem with multiples!!
Looks like Yarmouth are all going off 20mins late - leaving me not knowing the result of 2nd leg before 3rd leg (due 20mins after).
I've decided to cancel my lay on 2nd leg and take the potential losses.
Better than losing even more.
Oh well - it may win.
What often happens when races are very delayed is that the whole schedule for that meeting is put back 30 minutes. During the week there are typically 3 meetings in the UK, and each tends to put its races 10 minutes apart of the other meetings so that they don't clash (clearly with bf multiple players in mind!) By delaying a full 30 minutes, it ensures there continues to be no clash.
You were right to cancel your lay on the second leg (I did the same) but what you can now do/could have done is continue as normal but with your 2nd and 3rd legs swopped around.
You need to play with numbers: the highest possible lay odds on outsiders and back something around evens.
Originally Posted by Swift
1 Admira Wacker v St Polten (Laying St Polten @ 11.39)
2 Barcelona v Panathinaikos (Laying Panathinaikos @ 40.02)
3 Benfica v Hapoel Tel Aviv (Laying Hapoel Tel Aviv @ 11.13)
4 Man Utd v Rangers (Laying Rangers @ 29.5)
5 W Bremen v Tottenham (Backing W Bremen @ 1.98)
Then backed 4 outsiders for £24 in total (to return £77-78 profit) and layed W Bremen for £35 at 2.06.
Multi could return £73 after commission if it wins.
So, if all win, then 73 - 24 - 37 (lay on W Bremen) = +12
If 4 favs win or draw and W Bremen lose: -24 + 33.4 = +9.40 (stake on multi returned as only one loss)
If one of 4 favs lose then stake on multi and stakes on outsiders returned with £50 refund still being possible:
- W Bremen lose or draw: + 33.40 profit from lay
- W Bremen win: 50 (refund) - 37 loss from lay = +12.90
If more than one outsiders win then I am well in profit.
I think you forgot to add refund into your calculations.
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