Thank you cleaner & doomed that's really helped! I think I was taking off £50 from my potential win on the multiple for some reason, which then ended up throwing all my figures out & also trying to lay to much on the one at evens. Seeing all your odds & figures has really helped though. So I'll have a play around on betfair again & hopefully this time I've got it
Thought i`d give this a go yesterday......messed up(rushing due to fast approaching k.o) and seem to have got lucky!
£50 Five fold
Layed Pana, Hapoel, Rangers, Braga
Backed Werder Bremen
I then backed the teams I had layed and layed Werder for a guaranteed profit (so i thought)
After k.o I realised I would not be entitled to the £50 refund as the terms say all games must be played on Tuesday.....plus must be at least a five fold multi. As I only had four teams playing on Tuesday no refund.
Three of the bets won and Werder didn`t....guess what?? I just received my £50 refund
I had written it off so am a very happy boy.....I wonder if this is a mistake in their terms or they should not have paid me out? I`m also wondering if this could be exploited in some way? haha
Think i`ve trod in something last couple of days...layed off of a back of Villa on Monday and finished winning over double what I would have from my original bet. Also in the last two days i`ve had equivelant of 7/1 and a 10/1 winner betting in-play on champions league cricket due to some huge market swings.
What a week and a bit I've had.
The above posts show I was up alot but due to a "gamble".
Well the five fold gamble went badly - lost £75.
Got in too late to do a five fold wednesday.
Thursday I got a spreadsheet from a rival forum that helps you calculate what to lay.
I biased it a bit (worse case lose £6). I ended up making £15 from each of my friends account. So plus £46.
I also did a treble three times - all lost for a £9 profit.
First horse won. Second won. I'm left having lost £76 in lays. The bet would lose me £17 if I evenly matched it so I decided to ley it ride. The horse was 1.6.
My friend who actually gambles tipped me off on three horses. Well I hadn't bet on them but his forst 2 both won. He particularly told me about the third one.
So like a mug (well actually an actual mug) I put £35 on him. If it won I'd be in profit for the day. It lost.
So today adding in the £10 refund I have lost £98.
Don't cry for me Argentina as I am £366 up from doing these multiples in the last 8 days.
And these are extra offers - ones I wouldn't have even done.
But the mistakes have made this amount £325 lower than it should have been - but of course I made £333 of it off a punt. So maybe I should think of it as being evened up.
BUT I hate getting an unknown odds on the horsie ones.
I can't stop myself overlaying and then getting in a mess when they win. And worry about the increasing lay amounts and the fees from them if you get winners.
I think I will drop the horses and stick to just football.
The sheet calced the resulting bet results to the penny and it was a far less emotional event.
The way I do the horsies is:
Originally Posted by section22
- work out how much I need to lay assuming I will lay at the bf multiples price + 5%
- queue a lay about a minute before the off at a few ticks below the current lay price but set it to take SP odds at the off. (I'll adjust it if there are big movements in the last minute or if the race is delayed.) This ensures that my assumption is correct (because the bf multis price is always 5% below the bf SP price). But because of the way laying at SP works (the liability is kept fixed, not the lay stake), this results in a small underlay so that I take a smaller loss if it goes on to win, which I am happy with. I have to be very quick though once the race has started to check that the underlay is not too big and if it is then try to lay a little more in play.
Something I find useful when laying the horses for the multiple offers is to have betfair/timeform radio on... this will give you a good sense of when the race will start as they usually say when the horses are going down, loading, how many left to load etc. It stops you laying at the official start time and then wondering why the hell the race hasn't started while you watch the odds steam in on the horse you just layed!
Don't hate the player, hate the game!
Sounds good - apart from I don't understand the adjustment bit i play you are doing?
Originally Posted by doomed
Not a bad idea - apart from some are done at work and I can't really be doing that.
Just trawling through tomorrow's matches and I see that Verona are playing against a team from Gubbio. I wonder which bookie sponsors them?
So long as you don't back/lay Mark Arber who plays for Dag & Redbridge, you'll be fine
Next week's offer is get an extra £5 for every horse that wins in your treble or quad.
Hmmmm I decided to forget the horses but I might have a think about this.
I've made a more even keeled £93 over the weekend from the two days of footy 5 fold.
It would have been about £15 more but I bised them so that my evens bet plays first. Then if they lose I am in profit whatever - but if they win then an outsider or two winning can put me in loss. So when they did win I decided to back the outsiders a bit more to reduce my risk. They all lost but hey I am match betting not mug punting.
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