Odds and Probabilities

[Odysseus]

any thoughts on backing drifters? could there be some value in that? overreaction giving a good price?

perhaps backing drifters then laying off in running?
Bit my experience of seeing a horse drift close to the off invariably means it finishes nowhere! Usually when i've backed at the bookie/layed for a lowish price! never had one win and thus made money on the BOG!

[Stevesharpe]

Going back to the question in the OP

I work full time so most of my betting action is straight matched betting. I do a little arbing mainly to keep up my BF points balance. I agree that when I see a favourite drifting my immediate gut reaction is that the market knows something I don't. I never bet based on my gut though, for me it's all about the numbers. If I can get a few hundred down on an arb >evs that returns £25/30 I'll do it for equal return. If the arb is high odds for a small profit I'll fully under lay it as I'll only be allowed up to £100 max at most UK bookies. (More at Stans or Laddies but only 10p at Boyles or 365)

The Villa game you refer to if I remember correctly Villa drifted from 1.77 out to 2.06 over 2 days. I had Stoke layed on that game and remember thinking "if only I'd waited" as the price steamed in. I wish I knew what moved the markets. I often look at football matches and think the market has the price wrong. In my opinion Villa to beat Stoke is probably an even money shot and I thought Villa were poor value at 1.77. However I thought Man Utd were excellent value to beat Fulham at 1.68 (despite their record at the cottage). That's probably why I'm not a bookie, eh!

[Eddie]

Think about, and construct a rough idea of the market prices for an event before you ever look at the current or historic prices for an event you are interested in getting involved in. I guess that this would be one of the golden rules for any successful pro punter ( I mean by this someone who bets on value). If you look at the prices before you have assessed and derived your own tissue prices from your research then surely most of the objectivity you have for that event will have gone. The instant you look at those prices your judgement is instantly effected. What is interesting is that I expect most of us like to think we are pretty good judges of at least one sport, and yet when you actually try doing your research and forming the market prices in your own mind it is surprising just how different the actual market prices can be. I suppose ultimately it boils down to our confidence in our ability at assessing a match or event and whether we are willing to back our judgement with cold hard cash over a long period of time and many hundreds of bets. Only then will we know whether we are actually any good or not.


On the issue of backing steamers and laying drifters, I would prefer to do the opposite. Why not lay a steamer that has come in form 4.0 to 2.4 in ten minutes pre race. The money that forced it down from 4.0 to 3.0 was probably the pro money, the rest of the plunge is probably the second and third waves of ordinary and mug punters catching a whiff of something and thinking they are going to be on the winner. It's real price may be 2.8, so of course the shrewdies were delighted to be on at 4.0 down to 3.0. What mug punters often think is that a steaming price means "it's gonna win" or "the people who know think it's gonna win". Anyway so if you could lay this real price 2.8 nag at 2.4, long term you will be quids in.

[Super_Dash]

Steve, Villa drifted from 2.5ish (I think) to 3.1ish, at kick off they were about 3 and the peak was somewhere near 3.2.

Villa +0.5 (double chance market Villa or Draw) drifted from 1.575 at 365 (I think) which I was happy with, to 1.72 which had me sceptical.

Eddie your point is what I was getting at; at 1.575 I felt I was getting Value, I thought Stoke should probably have been 15/8-2/1 or something and I was getting some value at 4/7 but as soon as I saw the market was valuing it differently I was no longer confident of the value even at a longer price.

There have been times where I have stuck with my assessment and its benefitted (convolutedly Newcastle / Villa), times where my assessment hasn't benefitted (Man U to beat Fulham a good bet at 3ish when they are 1 - 0 down? Maybe, not laying when they were 2 - 1 up turned out to be a bad gamble).

I guess one would need a commitment mechanism based on your own estimations to actually make sure you didn't let the market odds influence you drastically.

[section22]

I've found myself expecting long odds to lose and short odds to win.
And then have had tennis faves at 1.06 lose and footy team beat teams the odds say they shouldn't. Like bleeping Scunthorpe midweek (4-0 as well!!).

And that annoys me.