Bet365 4/1 offer - EV & why "4/1" is not arbitrary
There was a little discussion in the chat-box earlier this evening when I tried to point out that, for most punters, the Bet365 4/1 offer is actually not "+EV"... that is, it won't enable an average mug punter to avoid making a net loss long-term.
I'm not suggesting people not mug punt on 4/1 races at Bet365 - I just want to ensure people aren't disillusioned into thinking the offer is a ticket to long-term profits without other good AP practices.
Anyway...here is the equation that shows a 85% statistical return on a "4/1" qualifier (0.85 + ...) and the value (probability x gain) of 200 free bets derived from it, all placed at odds of k. Why 200? It should be infinity but this is close enough.
Here is the actual graph showing the region in which you'd expect to make a profit
The function crosses the return of 1 unit stake at odds of ~4.625 and this is why the offer is 4/1 and not 3/1...below that the offer is highly +EV and 365 would be going bankrupt.
Analysis like this works for most offers. You can show for instance exactly why Sportingbet have minimum odds of 1.3 on their 5-fold refund offer....below 1.3 per leg, assuming a ~90% payout, it becomes +EV.
Over time, I don't think many of us who gamble on the 4/1 offer are average punters. Even if I don't match them off, I do keep an eye on Betfair. So often I will back a horse at 5s what is actually going off at 4s, or a 7s steaming in to 6s.... you get the picture. Opposite if we back a horse that drifts we get a bog. I would think that would also affect the graph.
That said I don't know how that affects this graph of yours, but all I know is that it works for me so I will keep doing it. It is very much fun and interesting so it would not be the end of the world if I had a losing day.
BOGs only improve odds to SP, which are presumably industry friendly long-term, no? I don't see how this would effect long-term profits positively, it's more of a safety net for poor value bets.
Originally Posted by Nintendo2k
After 3 months almost entirely on horses, and doing almost every 4/1 race going, my account has a P/L ratio of 87.6% before adjustments. After adjustments, my account is at exactly 99.7% (that includes a half-dozen loyalty bonuses, the SUB, the mobile £50 mobile offer and the £100 new season reload).
So far my personal observances are that, given my strike-rate on following exchange narbs and arbs as you suggest, I would be even-stevens right now had I just punted the lot (Of course I've laid and made 4 figures).
3 points if I may:
1. you are referring to mug punts. I'd think many people on here are not mugs but utilise their knowledge, experience, watch how market moves, what odds are offered, etc. Therefore, what is relevant for mugs might not be relevant for "informed / educated" players.
2. you need to factor in additional things affecting payouts over time: BOG, paying for double results, not applying 5% R4. Especially the first 2 are significant as with first you are getting back more than you expected and with second you are a winner even if your selection is declared as a loser. Over time you get selections which BOG and win and then are disqualified - happens to me a few times.
3. as you have probably noticed, many people do bet their freebies on selections which are way below 4/1, as they want a winner not another qualifying matched bet (and very often they have them).
I don't think this would actually push the EV up above zero. Consider a winning 4/1 bet @ 4/1 (5.00). The probability of winning can be approximated to be 0.85/5 = 17% using my model. If you put your freebie on at evens (prob. 0.85/2 = 42.5%), then your expected return is 0.85 + (17% * 42.5% * 1) = 92.2%....and no chance of another freebie if you win your evens bet.
Originally Posted by cleaner
I'm not sure what you mean by not applying 5p R4, it'll reduce the bookmakers margin a fraction, but not by much, and bigger R4s have the potential to work in the bookies favour. I'd argue it is below noise level.
I think you are badly underestimating how good BOG is. You said in the chat that you don't like taking early prices & prefer to look for a close match as near to the off as possible; that would render BOG almost academic in your case & probably explains why you don't think it has much value. I made huge amounts from BOG alone when I had a 365 account that lasted ungubbed for over a year, including individual cases where a horse drifted, for example, from 5.0 to 14.0. You also benefit greatly from R4 if you take early prices.
Also, as I said in the chat, I don't really understand your position here:
- You do the offer yourself.
- You have agreed that laying or not laying the offer doesn't substantively affect EV.
So as far as I can see you are completely contradicting yourself, on the one hand doing the offer at every opportunity. Then you say the offer is -EV!
Hmex - we are not muppets, we will take a favourable price (should think most of us will take a price equal to or higher then the market indicates), not any old one and we don't need pretty graphs to make decent money either. Can I suggest spending less time being argumentative and over analysing offers? Instead perhaps use this time to make more money/ or something else more useful? Because ATM you are -EV to this forum IMO.
I'm sure your maths is fine and but you have based your analysis on an erroneous selection for the level of return on the bets made on these races. Eighty Five percent return is way too low and equates to a whopping 117%+ overround. I don't understand why you chose this figure. Stick in 96% return into your calcs and see what comes out, I'd be interested to see that. When I started my mugging of the small stakes I'm allowed on the 4/1 races I was surprised at just how close the prices I was taking were to the bf SP, which is perhaps the closest measure of true odds I guess.
p.s. lol, great sketch there LP, Beaker was one of my favourites along with the Swedish chef and Animal, the drummer.
Can I suggest you STFU and stop telling people how to spend their time? Nobody forced you to read this thread, least of all me. I'd appreciate it if you didn't drag my thread off-topic with your rants.
Originally Posted by blowingbubbles
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