B.O.G. arbing method
I would like to offer my system of arbing, for discussion.
I have been using it for 6 months and have been quite successful with it. I thought it up myself, although it may have been knocking about for a while and I haven't noticed it. It has i think the following advantages.
1. Builds a good relationship with bookie because not all bets will be arbs in their eyes.
2. no need to match when lay odds are lower.
3. no need to sit at the PC all day
1. Can only use best odds guaranteed bookies (S.J. is only BOG on board not early prices)
2. Only use horses. (therefore rule 4 beware)
3. You need to have a good understanding of betting on horses, quick thinking is a must.
4. You must be on the exchange 5-10 mins before race.
5. Its not an always win system, but it's a win more than you lose one, I think you call that ev+
So here goes;
A. In the morning or at a time at least an hour before the race, Using an odds comparison site, get up the odds for all the bookies on a race with a fav about 2.0 - 3.0, bet a horse that is close to the exchanges, for double your usual bet stake. (MUST BE A B.O.G. BOOKIE)
B. Go to the exchange and lay the horse for 50% of the original stake.
C. Set an alarm for 10 mins prior to race start, enjoy the time inbetween having a life!
D. At the start of the race if the lay odds have reduced in number happy days, lay, underlay, overlay whichever takes your fancy, the remaining 50%
E If your odds have drifted then referring to the odds comparison site at 1 min to the off, assess what the current sp is(not an exact science I know but you should get an idea of how much extra can be laid). Remember you have laid half at lower lay price and are getting the full stake at the increased price, so as long as the horse drifts enough to effect the bookies price the loss on the lay is minimalised, and if it drifts enough should make it an arb.
I use odds of 2.0 -3.0 because the odds tend to move quicker in most cases. Longer odds take longer to drift at the bookies.
I also use the system to do multiples in the same race, so if im on four horses and 5 mins before the off I have 3 odds reduced and 1 drifter. I sp lay the 3 arbs for the full liability and then deal with the drifter in the last minute before the off. If I get a winner it usually gets rid of or certainly reduces the exchange commission.
I hope this all make sense, I'll be glad to answer any questions if it doesn't. I'm just looking to give something back to the MB community because believe me I've certainly taken it.
So what sort of profit margin do you take from this?
It does sound good in theory.
Interesting. I'll have more of a look later.
In reply to what profit margin, the answer is how long is a piece of string, I do all right out of it. If I was to do 5 races in a day I would be disappointed if I didn't do £100. Thats a bet size of about £300-£500 on the fav and £30-£100 on the bigger price ones if I'm doing multiple horses in the same race. I haven't measured success long term.
The thing to remember with this method you are arbing only half your stake, but the arbs can be great, especially when you get it on early, I've had 3.0 go odds on.
Are there many people left that still get BOG at Stan James?!
bog not available on early prices, only on board, I found out to my cost.
I use some variation of this on occasion, in general it isn't particularly great as often the odds drift out but the bookie won't BOG. It works well when you're expecting something to shorten but need insurance against the drift but isn't great.
The worst cases i've had are betfair lay / bookie SP, 20/11 and the likes; even 3.5/2.75
Would work incredibly if the bookies didn't depress the SPs so much. I've also laid off for a BOG as my horse was 10/1 everywhere but official SP was 8/1 even though it was 10/1 immediately before the off and no other horse drifted out in SP price lol.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools, cos people from a distance can't tell who is who ~ Jay Z
Originally Posted by TTWAR
SJ isn't the only bookie with weird & wonderful BOG rules.
Tote don't do BOG on all races (mind you, they won't let you put a decent bet on, anyway)
Several others, such as Corals and VCbet, exclude you at will from BOG - anytime during the day, and it applies to open bets.
Corals BOG odds are usually so bad (i.e. lower than the rest of the market) that there is no value to be had betting there.
Eurobet don't do BOG.
Good luck nonethelesss
Your method is very similar to a comercially available system called 'The Golden Key Method 2' where you find horses in the morning that are priced the same as the exchange at BOG books. You back them and wait til just before the off for laying. I tried it a few times a few weeks back but either forgot to lay (kids are very distracting) or if it drifted the SP often didn't match the drift on the exchange, as Dash has mentioned above.
But, I like your idea of laying half and concentrating on the shorter ones so I might give it a go again, just got to keep those pesky kids out of the way.
Thanks for sharing!
"By definition, you have to live until you die. Better to make that life as complete and enjoyable an experience as possible, in case death is shite, which I suspect it will be."
— Irvine Welsh (Trainspotting)
The BOG bookies I use are;
Betfred (not phone a/c)
bet 365 (sometimes I incorporate the 4/1 offer if I do multiple horses in 1 race)
I dont use Coral as their bog odds are carp, don't use totesport (not bog).
As I mentioned earlier, IMHO after a few odds drifting bets with a bookie, it makes you look less like an arber and you can get on what you want, they treat you like a mug punter, they want to pay you the difference in the odds drift. I took a little break recently, and received a £20 free 365 freebie and WH £25 freebie to entice me back.
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