kinda like starting over
I've just returned to the UK to live having spent the last few years in Greece. Sadly, the move has decimated my float - I've reserved 1500 quid to 'start' again. Before leaving Greece I was doing between a grand and 2 grand a week from various offers, reloads but mainly laying false favourites.
I'm going to have a fraction of the time I used to have, but lets see how much I can make from this lowly starting point over the next year. My initial target is to double my float over the next month. I'll try to keep track of everything I do and will post once per week.
Hi tb - can't you just continue laying false favourites? Was this a system you developed yourself? Sounds very profitable - well done
Good look mate, seems profitable, I am sure you will reach your goal.
Very, very hard to make money long term laying at Betfair, because of the over odds you lay at, plus of course the commission you have to pay.
I know a few that do it full time with good results, but they go to the course, stand in the parade ring and look for horses that "dont look right" Sweating up, that sort of thing.
Best of luck though, will be interested to see how you go
Beating Bookies since March 2006
Ok, a short first week during which I worked a total of 15 mins.
I did the gamebookers/partybets offer on my and the OHs accounts. Placed the following trebles:
liverpool, chelsea ,utd. liverpool, chelsea x, utd. liverpool x, chelsea, utd. liverpool x, chelsea x, utd. I felt it unlikely that either chelsea or liverpool would lose and that if I got lucky one might draw for a decent payout and if I got really lucky both would draw. As it was both drew and utd won for a treble with odds of just over 20. With two draws in the bag I laid UTD for £320 if they won and £280 ish if they lost. UTD duly obliged.
I also placed IAS qualifiers on arsenal for the £25SNR on man city correct score.
Titanbet were kind enough to offer the OH a matched £15 bet on any premier matchh, which I placed for no loss.
I'll include titan and ias in next weeks results.
All in all a decent 15 mins work for the week.
Starting float £1500
end wk1 float £1820
I am currently waitinfg for BT to sort my broadband so it'll be a quiet week.
Had I had broadband, there are several profitable bets/trades I place on UTDs premier matches.
On their AWAY games if UTD score first I lay them for £100 then back them in when their opponents equalise and lock in a profit. Today this would have been good for about £40 but sadly no broadband.
If their opponents score first I lay them for about £50 liability then green up when UTD equalise.
I also back all UTDs away games 0-0 to make £100 if it comes in. I increase the stake each week to win £100 plus staked amount.
When UTD are at home I tend not to trade, I have a few profitable bets that I'll place on all their home games which I'll discuss next week.
r2d2, pretty much my own ideas from my 3 or 4 years in this game. There are several 'false favoutites' every week that go off at really short prices that won't win. It's just a matter of picking them. When I have more time I'll start on these again and I'll try to post in advance.
Fender, I sort of agree and don't. It's not too difficult to lay low price losers.
With regards to going to the courses -that would be sweet. See a horse out of condition/sweating up, whatever. Lay it a couple of hunred at say 6 and watch it drift to 8s or 9s as the market cottons on. A dream job.
Originally Posted by totallybroke43
Doh, that's where I went wrong all the time!
TB would you care to describe your selection process for the 'false favourites', is it based on previous runs/handicapping flaws, weather/ground etc or mainly gut feeling?
Mirage, first and foremost is the going. For eg. if a horse has never run on AW and is short I'll lay it. They almost always lose.
Next is distance. Has it won/performed welll at this distance?
Next is ' is there anything that can beat it?'. No point laying it if nothing else is good enough.
Next a multitude of factors including trainer form, jockey form etc.
Finally gut feeling plays a big part. eg there was a group 1 in France last week which had 15 or 16 runners. Dream ahead was evens to lay having never run in France (to my knowledge), against 16 group 1 horses, having lost its last 2 starts decisively, all be it to good horses. It was screaming lay me, so I duly laia for 100 quid at evens and was never in the running. Easy money.
On the opposite side I laid frankel for 500 quid, thinking it was much too short against Canford Cliffs. I thought they were evenly matched - I was wrong. However, given the same analysis I 'd place the bet again.
Losing is difficult buut its part of the process. At the prices I lay at, I can afford 1 loser in 3 and still make money. I'm managing about 1 loser in 5.5 at the moment, but this may change.
I should say that its taken me about 3 years to get to this point re. the horses and I'm always, I hope, progressing.
Feel free to ask if you've any questions.