In need of inspiration and guidance

[OldMan]

I have been doing MBing for just over a year now and built up a float of just over £4k.

However I have reached the point where I just dont know where to go next - some of the SUBs I havnt done are because of the large WR's that I dont want to get locked into.

I have been making steady profits thru ARBing, however the one bookie where I got some great ARBs on a specific market has now limited me to £10 wins (I was making around £500/month from £50 bets). From an initial £50 deposit I withdrew over £3k! Since then I have hardly done anything as I relied on that heavily for a monthly income.

I need to make this work for me as I have been out of work now for over a year with not much prospect of getting back into fulltime work and my redundancy money is going fast - there just doesnt seem to be much about although I have a had a few interviews. I am a few years away from being able to draw on my pension if I can get it at 55, but I doubt that will be much if I take it that early.

Luckily though, I have cleared the mortgage although I still need to make around £600/month to pay all the bills etc.

I was hoping that some of the more knowledgeable peeps on here could give me some pointers as to where to go next - I seem to go for days now without placing a single bet as I cannot find anything to bet on. I keep seeing all they Refund on FGS/CS if XYZ scores etc, bit never do them as I dont seem to be able to find anything that doesnt result in a loss.

I have looked at trading, and played with a few strategies, but dont seem to be able to generate much from that - in fact quite the opposite as I seem to have the knack of backing/laying just as the trend changes direction!
Am thinking of signing up to Betting System Notes to see if that can help in any way.

Anyway, enough of a rant, I am just hoping that someone can give me some ideas - I dont mind putting in the leg work or whatever is needed as I tend to sit on my laptop for at least 6-7hrs solid and then on and off in the evenings. There has got to be a way of profitting other than ARBing.

[Freeworld]

Hi Oldman

Although I'm not full time I need the money from this to get by so can sympathise with you.

One thing that struck me in your post is the suggestion that you're not prepared to take a loss on the 'if' offers. What kind of loss are you talking about? Sometimes you can find arbs but I will happily take a £5-6 or so loss for a £100 if bet because in the end enough of them hit to make it worth taking the losses. It also adds excitement to the match if you're watching it!

If you don't feel comfortable taking that kind of loss then you can go in for a £10 or £20 stake instead. There are plenty of if offers around and most days they are all I do!

[OldMan]

Maybe I'm too risk averse, but as its my only means of income I just hate to see -ve figures in my records
Never really noticed how many of these do actually come off, so like u say maybe I just need to accept the losses and cross my fingers.

[Shark]

Next time you get really luck on an offer and win say £100, don't record it happening. Then do the IF offers were you lose a few pounds and if they lose don't record them. You don't have to record negative numbers any more and will be better for your psyche.

[lotte]

Sack of recording numbers, they take up too much time and if you have a run of making no money I would imagine it would make you feel bad.
Get those subs done. You can never have too many accounts. I bet there are a load out there that you have not done. get to the shops, especially laddies. If they are doing a refund if X player scores, go see what the prices are in the shops.
Basically doing this to fashion out a living takes hard work and getting off your arse and getting things done.
Sometimes, in-fact most times when offers are on you are going to make a loss on the qualifier. Suck it up. In it to win it.

Basically if you are not willing to put in the leg work and refuse to do "if" bets because you don't want to make a loss on the qual, then you may as well give up. Nobody is going to tell you where the arbs are, like you have not told anybody where your previous golden goose that made you £500 a month was.
Bit harsh I know but only you can put in the work. You get out what you put in. Get it done.

[Andy]

For a list of things you might want to do look here:
The Gambling Times - Today's Offers

It is updated every day after scanning the top 20 bookmakers for offers, if they have something which is worth looking at it will be on there.

As a more general source of "inspiration" do you read the TGT relay diary? Everyone is different, everyone makes money in a different way at different places and with a different style.
This years is here: http://www.thegamblingtimes.com/boar...es-thread.html
Last years here: http://www.thegamblingtimes.com/boar...l-entries.html

Both are worth reading. They show that there is more out there to do than you will have time for, the only things that will hold you back are Capital and Time really. Your profits are a function of the time you put in, the Capital you employ, the risks you take, and the luck you have. If you want more money you have to raise one (or more) of those.

As others have said, the comment you made which struck me was "I dont seem to be able to find anything that doesnt result in a loss." I am not sure how much I would make if I only ever did things which could not lose. "Advantage Play" is just that, you are playing with an advantage, the odds are in your favour, but that doesnt mean you will never lose.

For example if we were tossing a coin and it cost £10 to play and if you guess right and its heads you win £11 would you take that bet? You should, it is a +EV bet. I should imagine every one of "the more knowledgeable peeps on here" would take that bet. They might lose five times in a row and be -£50 that is a real possibility. But it doesnt matter, sooner or later they will win five in a row and be +£55. The bet is +EV, so bet on it then, in the long run you cant fail if you stick to +EV bets only it all evens out in the end.

[westv]

Remember of course that any loss on an "if" bet must be less than the loss made if purely wagering directly on the "if" outcome - assuming the "if" outcome is wagerable.

...does that make sense?!

I'm in a similar boat to you, OldMan - I was made redundant two years ago and there's still no real sign of a job. I would rather the money I make become savings rather than income but there you go.
A lot of my profits at the moment are from US props but that tends to die off a bit during the summer. I so wish I'd known about this game back in 05 when I received a large lump sum from my savings.

I've also considered having a separate casino pot (maybe £300-£500) to do all the non risk free (but +ve) casino offers.

[OldMan]

Thanks Andy. It appears I need to shift my mindset and not be too bothered about the odd loss here and there. As lotte says, gotta be in it to win it. Its not a matter of me not putting the time in - I spend hours every single day looking - I just need to start getting stuck in.

Do people tend to lay off bets fully at the time of placing their bets, lay off part and wait to see if the prices shorten at the exchange, or simply wait before laying? I know thats a bit of a general statement, but any advice welcome.

And finally, all these FGS offers - if the one you chose doesnt play, are both the back and lay voided?

Cheers guys, gonna get stuck in tomorrow and pull my finger out!

[OldMan]

Remember of course that any loss on an "if" bet must be less than the loss made if purely wagering directly on the "if" outcome - assuming the "if" outcome is wagerable.

...does that make sense?!

Not really westv But I do have the spreadsheet where it gives u the profit loss on each outcome.

[Andy]

Do people tend to lay off bets fully at the time of placing their bets, lay off part and wait to see if the prices shorten at the exchange, or simply wait before laying? I know thats a bit of a general statement, but any advice welcome.

I do all three of those depending on the offer, and what I think is likely to happen, I will lay it all if I think it is only going to drift, I will wait if I think it will come in, there is no set strategy for me. How I hedge varies too, every offer is different to me after I factor everything in, which I am sorry doesnt help with the Q but it is true.

Whilst you are first doing it could you maybe try £10 stakes, although the refund or winnings boost may be to £100 that does not mean you HAVE to do it. I dont keep records myself but as you do (I think) you could see if it £10 stakes how much you win/lose over ten offers and it will only be +£2 or £3 either way tops but will mean (if in +ve) you can be more confident moving the stake up later? Also you can get a feel of how you are happiest laying while it is not costing you much either way anyhow?

As WestV says another thing to consider is is it actually a +EV offer, the whole thing is dependant on that, getting a refund "if so and so scores in the 32nd minute with his head from outside the area" is so unlikely the loss on the qualifier would almost certainly not be worth it.