With the above
£74,842.80 / 300 = £249.48 per share. (If the horse lost and we won 75k)
would become £498.96 per share
So, for my investment of £20, for instance, I'd get roughly £9979.20.
Although, any fees at bf etc, mb fees, and other stuff would come off that.. But roughly, not bad for a first attempt
Last edited by bella; 25/03/2012 at 15:49.
Scoop 6 Winner 24/03/12
Bella, you are assuming nobody else picks the winning horse. If others pick the winner then our share falls accordingly.
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Originally Posted by lotte
oh yes.... I knew that was too simple..!
So, we'd need to divide 523/ 8 - worse case - the winning pot would be roughly 65k
My current thinking is along these lines:
EV is maximised by all of the winners clubbing together and agreeing to share because, simply, it removes the risk of double selecting a horse among all the winners. We're an AP forum, we should generally seek to maximise EV.
BUT, I would favour 'going it alone' for three reasons:
1 - there is an unknown, but not insubstantial, severely, severely -EV result which involves somebody running off with the money
2 - with seven other winners it will be an administrative nightmare trying to sort it out
3 - we got into this for a bit of fun, we've had a great return already and the option to guarantee money is there in any case
Using wndll's maths, you could safely lock in on the basis of winning £217 per share (that being the worst case scenario, all other tickets picking it). If we took the SP fav you'd likely be able to lay off around 7 you could lockin around £30 per share.
Not huge money, by any means, but the chances of all of us having the same horse are tiny to non-existent. You could safely lock in to that extent and root for the horse, knowing that, if it won, every ticket which didn't pick it would be worth an extra £217 per share.
That's how I'd play it, if we take this route.
I'm pretty sure if we wanted to go in with others then the Tote would organise it for us and draw up the necessary contract. It has been mentioned in C4 racing before that the bonus winners collaborated so I presume the Tote would have been involved.
There is no guarantee the other winners have only 1 ticket each. Perhaps they also chose the same horse that was a N/R and also have two or three tickets. Remember it is possible to choose SP fave as well, so another winner could have chosen SP fave in all races along with their chosen horse.
We could put it up for a vote whether to go solo or try and get 9 horses but if we say that since we have 2 winning tickets we should have more of a say than those with 1 winning ticket, then I would also argue those who put in more money into the pot should have more of a say than those who put in less.
I would say, let's see how many tickets the other winners have and then put it up for a vote whether to go solo or collaborate.
Edit - Maybe the tote don't get involved: http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Scoop6...id.-a060967446
In which case as Fox Mulder says "Trust No one" and l vote to go solo.
Last edited by horsekeeper; 25/03/2012 at 16:24.
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My 2 shares vote is for going solo.
And anyone knows how actually the bonus is paid to the winner?
I presume BF is not involved in it anymore so it won't be BF credit if we win (hence no easy way to use MB to distribute winnings).
It would be a cheque made out to Andy.
Originally Posted by cleaner
see old article here:
would issue a winning cheque to the ticketholder only.
"It's clear some people will want to collude but that's a decision for them. At the end of the day each individual will have to record their selection on a secure line and we will pay out to the name of the person on the recording who has named the winner.
In keeping with current policy, the Tote is almost certain to nominate a Channel 4 televised event
Would there be enough quality liquidity for everyone to lay off or would it turn into a battle between everyone on here to snap up the best odds and cause the horse to drift? Given the other tickets holders may be laying the odds may not be an accurate indicator and the geniuses who picked the horses on Sat (many thanks!) could be more reliable for estimated odds than betfair? Was the late drift from 2 to 3 on the winner of the last race on Sat caused by scoop 6 holders laying?
If the favourite is a reasonably low price - say less than 4 - may be a ticket on that for people who want to lay and the other ticket on a different horse.
But I've already had my reward and payback from my initial stake and I won't be laying * as from what I've read on here the favourite may be around 7 which will strip out the value.
(((535 000 / 9) * 2) / 1 440) * 5 = 412.80 per £5 if all ticket holders club together and pick the winner. Laying at 7 is £60 per £5 share.
Would a syndicate be more likely to avoid the obvious pick and try to be the only one on the winner given the need to share out the winnings and would an individual be more likely to pick the favourite as even if other people pick it their share will still be huge with no one to share it with?
* I'll be happy with a sneaky queued 'keep' and go in-play lay on both at 2.0 for £500 each. If they don't get taken then so be it - but it may be a good idea to make a decision by Friday and stick to it, as people may be out all day Saturday and any change of plans could cost them.
Last edited by Smooothie; 25/03/2012 at 17:20.
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