Once you take in to account the general population nobhead factor, there is far too big a chance of problems occuring. Plus anyone involved has already made a tidy sum so may as well go for a big win.
Forget about which horses we fancy to being with, we've got to try and pick one noone else is involved with. If in contact with these other winners it would be in everyones interest to collaborate with them and make sure we dont pick the same horses. Also I would avoid whoever looks like the SP fav if poss, as this is likely to be taken, plus the possibility of withdrawals who would then be put on this horse.
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Im going with no, purely on the basis we have no way of trusting the other individuals who we collaborate with if they hold the winning ticket.....
I'm a no. This would be an enormous trust if we got the winner and potentially a trust of someone who we don't know (which, as I type this I find quite ironic as WE don't know each other). Would also be incredibly complicated to sort out who gets what. Come 3 ish on Saturday we are all going to be cheering like mental for those 2 horses we picked and I for one am quite looking forward to that.
"By definition, you have to live until you die. Better to make that life as complete and enjoyable an experience as possible, in case death is shite, which I suspect it will be."
— Irvine Welsh (Trainspotting)
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This should be a poll thread really, if anyone wants to set one up maybe have 3 answers yes/no/not sure and we can maybe merge the threads perhaps.
I was going to say:
... but then I read this on scoop6 chatbox:
I think it would be useful to know exactly what is involved with collaboration/collusion in order to make an informed choice as well - I do not know exactly how it would work, there is a story here:
Scoop6 bonus hunters' collaboration pays off - Horse Racing News | Racing Post
that suggests that the bonus fund was just split evenly between all winners (after they had all agreed to collaborate). If that was the same for us then we would be lo
Allegedly that is one of the other winners... so she isn't interested obviously (although whether or not she really is a winner is another thing completely of course).
17:05:12Rach209:Will not do any deals with syndicates. I pick my own on my own and don't give a damn if I don't win any more money.
And that is just one other winner... getting all the others onboard would be a job that would take months I would have thought hah... not a few days... so, no, I don't think we should collaborate.
I guess the only thing would be to lay our pick for a small amount as a consolation if it doesn't win.
PS I just had a debate on teh phone with Andy about collaboration as well and he pointed out the other issue with collaboration in that you would need a huge amount of capital in your betfair account to hedge the other horses that the winners syndicate/collaborators didn't bet on (presuming all collaborators bet on one single horse in unison, maybe there's an easier way though?).
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Ha ha... I almost choked on my sushi roll when I read this...
Originally Posted by joeyboyuk
What's more I agree.... we should go it alone.....
My gut feeling is no. But if others wish to then I have no problem with that. Im happy with what Ive already won and anything else would be a bonus.
My only decision is whether to lay off a bit or not. Again my gut tells me to let it ride for a once in a lifetime free shot at a large sum.
Do the other winners know what horse we'll back? Do the Tote keep that secret or would they tell us?? Im off to Donny to watch it !
Yeah, i think i'm a no too.
It would be nice to guarantee a certain amount but trust is a huge issue, you could defo leave the country with that amount.
I'm happy with what we have so anything else is a bonus.
I'm definitely in the no camp.
I will decide on Saturday whether to lay our horses, and if I do it will be IR around evens for £500 each
With regards to picking horses, I know nothing. However I would rather be on two horses who someone who does know something fancies.
I don't see the argument in the lower ev if someone else is on the same horse. The only ev is in if we pick the winner. I would rather all 8 tickets pick the winner and we get 1/8th the pot than pick a loser because it was more +ev. Hope that makes sense! What I'm saying is pick 2 horses that have form, or that we think have a chance and it doesn't matter what anyone else picks, that's beyond our control.
Last edited by Stevesharpe; 25/03/2012 at 21:31.
You just need to ask yourself one question, do you feel lucky punk?....... Well do ya?
Before I start - masssive thanks to Pokergod and Andy and any else involved in running this.
My gut feeling is no collaboration - we can't trust people and there isn't time to draw up water tight contracts and in any event if someone has the £500K they can get a lawyer to try to get their way out of a contract after they have won.
I think we should ignore the other 7 people/picks and just concentrate on doing the best with what is within our control. I agree there is EV in finding info out and using it BUT I'm not sure we can trust people even if they will tell us which horse they are going to back. Anyway, how do we know they actually are a Winner. Also they may be suspicious or think they have an edge and tell us a different horse from what they have really chosen. Plus they may not be sophicticated in their approach to gambling and not understand what we are going on about. Also there is no point choosing a horse because no one else has picked it if it doesn't win!
I vote we simply choose 2 horses - the guys with horse knowledge can try to do their magic! One should be short odds (not sure whether we should go for SP favourite or not). I think we should leave any laying up to each individual to do for themselves. That way some people can let it ride and some people can lay. As a guide if people can lay the shortest one at 7.0 they can make £27 for each £5 share as a consolation (if they wish).