Nosebleed Poker

[Handyman]

As a first Nosebleed hand to discuss it only seems appropriate to take the largest pot of the past few months, as it is also the largest pot of online poker history. With $1,356,947 in the middle you'd think only set vs set, or quads vs open ended straight flush draw could create such a monster - but in reality neither player had the nuts. The blinds here are $500/$1000

The hand began with Patrik Antonius with:

Ah 3s Ks Kh (a respectable hand, and heads up more than playable.)

I'm going to save Islidur's starting hand until the end.


It is Islidur that kicked things off with a raise of $3000, not uncommon in these games with the mindset of building the pot. Patrik raises up to $9000, after which Islidur makes it $27,000. We see the flop when Patrik raises again to $80,000 (to see a flop!!) and Islidur calls.

The Flop is: 2h 4s 5c (so let's rule out those flush draws.)

The action goes like this:

Antonius: Bets $91,000
Islidur: Raises to $435,000
Antonius: Raises Islidur his remaining $100k +

With all the money in the middle we discover that Antonius has flopped the 2nd nuts, and with no flush draws out there he is only looking to avoid the board pairing or some sneaky runner runner action. But actually Islidur has not yet made a pair with his:

6d 7d 8h 9s.

Islidur was making a play on the flop, essentially putting Antonius to the test. Because if Antonius has anything less than trips there is no way he can call this bet. But as it happens he runs into the 2nd nuts and leaves himself 6 outs for an open ended straight draw (take away the 8 in his own hand and the 3 in Patrik's).

The turn is another 5 and the river an innocous 9.

And with that Patrik Antonius takes down the largest pot in online poker history. Amazingly Islidur only ended up with one pair 9s.

There is actually something to be said positively and negatively for both players in this hand, although much of it is down to opinion. Before analysing it in more detail lets see what the TGT polls say on this thread.

Is Islidur a Donk or a Demon at the nosebleed tables?
Does Patril Antonius deserve the respect he gets from the poker community?

Let's have it.....

[s0095063]

A lot of money in the pot there!

Isildur has 12 outs altogether is that right, 3 x 3, 3 x 6, 3 x 7, 3 x 8 = 12 outs?

Whats the % that he makes his hand then given he has 12 outs?

[Handyman]

Oops, I forgot the gutshot draw. Yes, you're right we have 3 3's, 3 6's, 3 7's and 3 8's.

On the flop Antonius has a 55.73% chance to win against Islidur's 44.27%.

It's much closer than it looks.

Browsing through the biggest hands of the last 30 days on FT it is quite revealing how many of them are near coinflips where all the money goes in on the flop. Mixing Omaha with players with practically no edge on each other creates these situations. I'm going to make an effort to watch Negranu on the 8-game tables, as we should in theory be watching someone with a significant edge on the competition.

'But when you give to the donkey, do not let your left seat know what your right seat is doing.'
Poker Bible, Bad Beat Bishop72:22

[Nosmo_________King]

I consider that Islidur has read this play and the player very well. Islidur has decided that Antonius had either the over pair of aces or kings or hit a low straight. The set is unlikely. Although behind in the hand Islidur knows that any card that makes him a straight is the nuts and he would be very unlucky to lose the hand from there, as it was highly unlikely that any card that helps him helps Antonius.

Although you want to get your money in when ahead, to know you have a almost certain lock on the hand if you hit your straight (no flush draw, very little chance of a higher straights or full house) has to be second best choice.

What has always amazed me is that at the noseblled stakes they must all think they are better than the other players, otherwise they can't play there. Do they sit down at a table full of Iveys, Hansens, Durrrrrrrrrs, Antoniuss, Ziigmunds and think, "He's shit", "ooo theres free money", "I bet Islidur has sat at the table for 20 minutes and not worked out who the fish is yet?" ...

[AmeliesDad]

Antonius and Islidur have had more than one of these types of hands. And according to Gambling Online mag claims that 19 of the top 20 largest pots of all time involve Isuldur1! It seems he made millions and then lost it all again!

[Handyman]

When Islidur was last on the scene, about 2 months ago, it was something else. He broke more than one record with the Biggest Online Poker Pot, but aside from that he can also claim the largest losing session in any one game - losing around $4,000,000 to Brian Hastings ...

This was all in PLO.

During the period of less than a month Islidur managed to nearly break Dwan, went up over $1.2 million, then dropped $4 million to Hastings. After that he went and played $25/50 with his pocket money. It seems that he is back now, and not playing quite as crazy (although not exactly ABC poker...)

And yet still nobody knows who it is .... Aunt Fanny is it you??