How to hedge?
So.. back at the start of the MLB season I made a homer bet on the Jays to not suck this year. I bet them over 85.5 total wins.
I needed them to win 10 of their last 20.. and now I need them to win 3 of their last 4 because they have been sucking it up.
anyways.. when should i start hedging? i'm thinking the last three games? like.. if they win tomorrow night.. they will have 3 games left and i will need them to win 2. or.. if they lose.. they will need to win the last three in a row. so.. should i wait until it all comes down to one game and then arb it?
any thoughts? my brain is a bit clogged but i think i can exploit this in some how.
If you bet them to win over an amount, and now they need to win 3 in 4 then you are in trouble, they probably wont and your bet will lose.
I would start betting on whoever they are playing in the next few games to win, for an amount which loses maybe 10% to 20% of the amount you win IF they finish over 85.5
The reason being if the team you backed at the start of the Season do win, you are down on that latest bet but the big +85.5 bet payday is still alive. If the team lose you can forget the +85.5 bet returning anything but at least you won the latest moneyline bet.
Thats maybe what i would do, but its hard to say without more figures and what have you, and even then what you should do is different to what i should do which is different to what anyone else should do. There is no right and wrong as such, everyone has different risk/reward attitudes. Some people would just cross there fingers and not hedge it at all, some people would never have bet in the first place.
Have a plan and stick to it
that would have been the best idea. heh.
Originally Posted by Andy
thanks for your help.