If you could start again....

[jat63]

I have been looking at this more - and now have a number of things to think about. A lot seems to be talked about getting the bet size correct in proportion to the amount that you have in the ring fenced area to bet with.

Some people seem to use (as you say) a flat amount (2% of the starting total seems to be popular) to bet with for each bet. Others seem to use a strategy such as optimal betting (I liked the explanation here The Mathematics of Options Trading - Google Book Search which looks at how to calculate 'optimal f' and also shows that if you get the amount wrong you can actually loose money).

We do however also know that there is a guaranteed % return on the bet and have a good view on the probability of the outcome occurring.

Looks to me that putting these things together in some way should get a better outcome than either just fully laying or flat bettering would? The solution will also need to factor in that there are limits and its unlikely that for a lot of bets you would actually be able to place the amount calculated.

JAT

[munk]

I have been looking at this more - and now have a number of things to think about. A lot seems to be talked about getting the bet size correct in proportion to the amount that you have in the ring fenced area to bet with.

Some people seem to use (as you say) a flat amount (2% of the starting total seems to be popular) to bet with for each bet. Others seem to use a strategy such as optimal betting (I liked the explanation here The Mathematics of Options Trading - Google Book Search which looks at how to calculate 'optimal f' and also shows that if you get the amount wrong you can actually loose money).

We do however also know that there is a guaranteed % return on the bet and have a good view on the probability of the outcome occurring.

Looks to me that putting these things together in some way should get a better outcome than either just fully laying or flat bettering would? The solution will also need to factor in that there are limits and its unlikely that for a lot of bets you would actually be able to place the amount calculated.

JAT

Thanks for that, that's my bedtime reading sorted out for the next month Seriously though it does look quite interesting that, I can just about understand the maths involved and am interested in the theory behind gambling. Might invest in that book or at least make an effort to see what else is around on the subject.

[jbh2008]

Not taking the enhanced odds at Bet365p and having 2 massive priced winners in the same week, meaning I had to withdraw several grand, swiftly followed by being gubbed. Shame as I enjoyed that bookie, especially for their 4/1 offer etc...

[howardmarks7]

good thread, interesting insights from experts for beginners. bump^^

[jopre]

Proportional underlaying. If the bookie is known to offer cautious odds and a high WR I would massively underlay. On competitive odds and a lower WR I would "level it". Other things like reloads and promos need to be considered to. I never take a view on the result!!.

[Super_Dash]

I woud probably make a lot less money if I started again, due to the fact I have no idea how I managed to make soo much from every casino offer early on. Managed about £2k from about £600 worth of EV looking back :/

I'd place me entire float at the date June first on Federer to win Wimbledon before Nadal dropped out.