A strategy

[gaubo79]

Interesting theory. And I believe it could well be plausible. It makes sense. Not good to see that the dry run didn't turn out results as planned though. I might have a go myself when I get time. Any chance I could have a look at that spreadsheet?

Prof, I'm still making a few tweaks to the spreadsheet and making sure the calculations are spot on. I will PM you when I'm happy with it.

IMO you would need the first goal to be later in the game to get the odds anywhere near the OP. In the Birmingham v Wolves game whch I think many would agree would fit the criteria in the OP. At KO the draw (back) odds were 3.45 on betfair, they dropped steadily to around the 3 mark then Wolves scored in around the 40th minute and they went up to .......... 3.45

As a result of backing the 0-0 insurance bet you need a hefty uplift in odds even just to break even, so in that game you would either play by the rules and back out & take the loss or let it run & see what happens, three scenarios I can think of:

1. Game stays 1-0 into the second half draw (back) odds don't really move that much certainly not enough to make a profit, they will only move enough in the last 10 mins or so.

2. The team leading scores another & the draw odds do shift enough to lock in a profit.

3. The team losing equalise and the draw odds plummet leaving you in a worse position.

This is my opinion but it's based purely on one game, needs a bit more paper trading to be sure.

This exact strategy is not 100% safe, you will win some, you will lose some, my gut feeling is the losses would be greater than the wins, unless you took risks and let things run to try get better odds. Not taking the 0-0 insurance bet makes life a bit easier but the longer the games goes 0-0 you need to make a decision or risk losing a wad.

Someone posted some links above (post #16), if you are interested in this sort of thing, they are worth a read.

[triplea]

Yeah it took ages to type! I saw an offer somewhere from someone (its an expired offer) that a bookie would refund if a certain match ended 0-0. It could be a good strategy then.

I remember a few years ago I downloaded a guide on how to make a living from playing online roulette. The guide was basically a spin on the bet on black or red and double your bet every time you lose, the system had a name but I don't recall it. Anyway I put the system into practice and was doing really, really well I thought I'd hit the big time with this fail proof system. Needless to say after a time the system failed and I lost half of my winnings walking away with around about £650 I think. Mug

Slightly off topic but its called MARTINGALE system, it does look foolproof for a couple off hundred pounds THEN it bites you in the bum BIGTIME...AVOID!

Stick to matched betting!

[Tel]

Prof & triplea I believe the system was a variation on the Martingale. You didn't just double your stake and bet on the same colour you started with a row of five '1's, you take the first and last number and place that on say black, if you lose then you put a 2 on the end of the row of ones and bet 3, if that loses then you add a 3 to the row and bet 4, etc. When you start wining you cross off the first and last number....

It's difficult to explain and not really worth the effort it worked quite well, was slow but not as risky as the Martingale system. Not fail proof though and after a losing streak it can take you a while to get back up to where you started if you do at all.

So yeah I'll stick with match betting