Quote Originally Posted by Andy View Post
There are other "systems" i have dabbled with, have you heard of "lay the leader"? Does exactly what it says on the tin really. That is actually profitable flat betting but nobody has quite worked out why, and it could well just have been a lucky few Seasons but on most major league matches for the last three years i have been told that shows a profit but i havnt got the numbers and dont really do it seriously.
No I hadn't heard of it but Google has. I haven't studied this yet but I'll put it up on here because I'm more likely to read it as I'm on here more than anywhere else And of course for the benefit of the other forum members:

Copied from here Football Betting - Guarantee Profits Betting In-running on Football

How to win In-Running on the Football

“Now – here’s a way to improve your football enjoyment, and

If you bet on the game ‘in running’ (that is, as the game is
actually being played) on Betfair or on one of the other betting
exchanges, then you can often put yourself in ‘win only – no lose’

There are lots of ways you could do this – but the particular
method I’d like to talk about today is known as… Lay The Leader.

Lay The Leader

The concept here is to ‘Lay’ (play bookie and accept a bet) on the
team or player that takes the lead in an event, and then 'bet the
selection back' when the opposition level the score.

Here’s an example.

A team takes the lead and their price to win the match drops – LAY them…

Say, football’s Middle-Of-The-Table United took the lead against
Top-Of-The-Table Rovers in a match, you might well find that the
middle-ranking side were immediately cut to 1.90 'in running' from
previously being a 2/1 (3.0) chance.

However, after Rovers had netted an equaliser, the odds took a
mighty swing back the other way, allowing those who laid (accepted
a bet) at 1.90 and shorter on United to then back them to win, that
is, to 'bet them back,' at odds of 2/1 or bigger.

Suppose you had taken (made a ‘Lay’ - accepted a bet of) £100 at
1.90 on the middle-table team as soon as they went in front, you
would have had the following ‘book’ on the game.

Middle Table United win -90
Draw +100
Top Of Table Rovers win +100

(You have ‘laid’ United for £100, so you win that much if they
DON’T win the match. You laid them at odds of 1.90, meaning if
United DO win the match, you pay out 1.90 x the £100 you have
accepted the bet on. Minus the £100 stake, this is a loss to you of

The other team level the match – BACK the team you originally laid…

You can now go a step further and put yourself in a position where
you cannot make a loss. When the Top Of Table outfit levelled the
match, you could then have struck a bet at the 9/4 (3.25) which
became available for the Middle Table United side.

You could have biased your book towards the ‘best’ side, Top Of
Table Rovers, by having £40 on at the 9/4 leaving you with the
following book…

Middle Table United Level
Draw +60
Top Of Table Rovers +60

(If United win you lose £90 from the ‘lay’ at 1.90, but win £90
from a £40 stake at 9/4 – coming out level. If the match is a draw
or Rovers win, you win the £100 from the ‘lay’ and lose the £40 on
the United win at 9/4 – an overall profit of £60).

Guarantee a PROFIT – win, lose, or draw - by adjusting
your stake…

Or you could have made a profit all ways by having increasing your
stake to £60 on Middle Table united at 9/4, which would have left
you with the following situation…

Middle Table +45
Draw +40
Top Of Table +40

(If United win you lose £90 from the ‘lay’ at 1.90, but win £135
from a £60 stake at 9/4 – coming out £45 up. If the match is a draw
or Rovers win, you win the £100 from the ‘lay’ and lose the £60 on
the United win at 9/4 – an overall profit of £40).

Either way you could have put yourself in line for a handsome

The whole thrust of this method is to make money by laying poor
value favourites, and I certainly couldn't argue with that. But
trust the evidence of your own eyes, there are times when the team
in front deserves to be there - so be selective about who you

And now, a few words about how you can protect yourself from some
rather unsubtle Betfair con men…

How to guard yourself against the ‘1.01 club’

Wherever money changes hands - there are people out there who will
try to trip you up and rip you off.

There is a sub-species of these on Betfair, and they are lying in
wait for a punter to click the wrong button. The pay off is that
the careless backer ends up saddling him or herself with a
ridiculous wager - possibly taking 1/100 (1.01 – the lowest
possible odds on Betfair) about a selection that should have been
far, far bigger price.

These parasites don’t just stick at offering 1.01 (that’s just the
name these kind hearted fellows have been given) …they’ll offer any
price that is far shorter than an outcome's real quote, just as
long as they are still well within the realms of a stupidly short

There’s no point in going into just how it all works, but there is
every point in outlining how you can avoid such trip wires.

Always double-check your bets…

To place either a ‘lay’ request or a ‘back’ request or to accept a
lay or a back offer you will need to agree to a couple of
verification questions before Betfair process the transaction

These questions basically indicate the total liability of your
intended bet, and the potential profit of your intended bet… you
should read these figures very carefully EVERY time you place a

For example:

Let’s say you want to Back Arsenal at 1.60 to win against Sheffield
United tonight, for £10.

On Betfair, you would select the blue ‘Back’ option for Arsenal at
1.60, then enter your stake of £10 on the bet slip area on the
right of the screen. This displays ‘Your Odds’ (1.60), ‘Your Stake’
(£10), and ‘Your Profit’ – the amount you win if Arsenal win.

After clicking ‘Submit’ Betfair will then tell you how much you
stand to win (profit) or lose (liability) for each of the possible
outcomes – in this case an Arsenal win, a draw, or a Sheff Utd win.
Betfair then asks you if you want to place this bet. ONLY click
‘Yes’ if you are sure the bet on the screen is the bet you want to
be placing.

If you do this you will never make a mistake, and you will never
saddle yourself with bet that is a far shorter price than it should

Don’t think that checking Betfair's verification slip is a waste of
time because ‘you’ would never make such a mistake, even the
shrewdest of punters have been caught out in the past when skipping
the verification process, in some cases losing a significant stake.

In a recent live football match, when the market was ‘in-play,' one
punter had over £500 on a team at 1.05 when their proper price
should have been 4.50. So instead of a potential profit of £1750 on
this selection, he found himself with a potential win of just £25.

I'm not saying that Betfair trading is dangerous - but it's a bit
like crossing the road - dangerous if you don't watch where you are

In short read the conformation screens EVERY time.”