I believe this is called the 'Gavin's Girlfriend's System'!
Originally Posted by AmeliesDad
There was an actual "system" that worked (sort of) at major festivals back before the days on the internet/phone bookies when it was mainly betting at the track. It was +EV to back the horses at the BOTTOM of the race card. The theory was that at these meetings there was so much "fun money" going on horses that are peoples favourite colour or name of their Mum or whatever that as they scroll down the card as soon as they got that horse they stopped looking at the others. So overall as everyone does this it was all the top horses getting backed the others were a large % of time not looked at. As back then the bookies couldnt use betfair to lay off the liabiltity, to keep a balanced book they needed to cut the odds on the top half of the card and let the odds on the bottom half drift out to take any bets on those at all. Hence you could get value on the bottom half selections.
None of that is really relevant to anything i just thought it was a nice story :-)
Have a plan and stick to it
If the odds had been 69/1 this story would have become a legend in its own right
Originally Posted by Rudolph Ucker
Personally I've lost a bet at 1.03 but not had any wins over 20.0
I had a hell of a run at jennings bet for my 4x £30 bets
I deposited £30 won my first bet on a horse.
Won 2nd bet on horse
lost 3rd bet which was placed on the favourite, again the horses
then the 4th bet won as well.
My final bet was at odds of 26 and I ended up withdrawing well over £700 from a £30 deposit.
19:50 at Wolverhampton yesterday.
Was matching off a bet on the favourite and listening to Timeform. Can't remember what but they said something favourable about Transvestite and decided to stick a fiver on it at odds of 24.0. I expected it to lose but maybe put in a good show so I put in a lay of £10 at odds of 10.0 to hopefully match in running for a fiver profit (still assuming it'd lose). Anyway, looked bad from the start and odds are way up in big numbers. Started to look better though as it moved up in the field a bit so cancelled and stuck a lay for a fiver in at 23.0 but didn't expect it to get matched. Well bugger me the horse started to steam up the field and won! Luckily for me, the lay matched at 20.0 for a £20 profit.
Just wish I'd had one of those 'fumble' moments and not been able to get the lay on in time.
Highest odds came in last Thu on Barca/Espanyol (Copa Del Rey), placed £12 (max stake) @ 51... the match finished 3:2. Was up £600 at the book but £512.50 down at the exchange (fully underlaid to break even)
Naturally, I was jumping for joy having made £87.50 profit... but then it hit me that if I hadn't laid at all I'd be £600 up!! That's the game though so twas no big deal.
Thats a nice hit, which was the bookmaker? I always have that "wahey" feeling when an underlayed bet comes in and its big £s overall then it slowly dawns on me i now have £X sitting in somewhere random who may have a lazzai faire attitude to payments!
Originally Posted by csbr35883
If i have won in PaddyPower, or Ladbrokes or whatever its not an issue, but sometimes i really wish it had been just a few £s profit to betfair instead :-)
Have a plan and stick to it
Andy, in answer to your Q; betdirect was the bookie in question (A list IMO) - the lay odds were @ 42 with ~£30 liquidity available.
Barca were 3:0 up until around the 60th minute but Espanyol fought back with 2 late goals. Truth be told I had a gut feeling the match might have plenty of goals because it was a local derby/cup match/possible opportunity for Barca to field some reserves. In fact I was so confident it might come in I almost mugged it but the matched betting leprechaun on my left shoulder told me to lay it off at the last minute. Still, no complaints.
i won at 45/1 on a half time/full time football bet
At Betjoint recently, bet $150 of my freeplay at 18/1 on Arizona Cardinals to win the NFC Championship game. This was at the end of regular season before the playoffs began.
Needless to say, had this bet lost I would have bust out of this crap book. I won $2,700 and proceeded to build this up to $6,700 before the recent gubfest!!!