Waiting it out

[Tel]

I've noticed the odds changing quite significantly between the time I place my bets and the time of the event, especially true when the game is a few days away. I presume that waiting it out would be a bit of a gamble. So questions if you were to wait it out:

Would you lay and wait for the back or back and wait for the lay?
Do the low odds always get lower and the high odds always get higher?

When, how & why?

[Andy]

It is a bit of a gamble but if the event is quite some time away i do it, but it depends on the market. If it is something like a Draw in Soccer i would definitely do it, i mean how much can the odds realistically drift on the Draw? I might be less inclined to on a tournament winner where it could go from 8s to 20s in no time on the back of some news.

There is no crystal ball or secret key to it, its just trial and error really, you get a feel for it over time. I dont know why i do it really im sure all the times i queue for one or two ticks lower is wiped out the time i need to bail somewhere on a big drift, but cest la vie.

[munk]

I quite often queue a lay bet at a lower price - sometimes a lot lower if it's a good few days away - because the market will often swing all over the shop. BUT it is a gamble and doesn't always pay off and can go the other way (worth saying I would only do this on football matches where the price won't move too much).

An example is say derby vs forest this weekend, I backed forest at 3 and queued a lay bet for 3 (when the price was 3.15) and that lay has now been matched. However I also have another layed bet on port vale I think it was which hasn't been matched... like Andy says it's swings and roundabouts. Just be careful it's not something that can go really wrong on you like a long term market where the odds change from week to week etc.

[Tel]

Oh so rather than revisit the site occasionally on the hope of catching good odds you just alter the stake at betfair and wait for it to be taken up? And could you just lay and back at betfair rather than at a bookie?

[munk]

Well usually you'd have what was a pretty close match anyway, you're just being greedy really trying to take a few extra ticks at betfair (so arguably it's not worth it really given it can go either way, might as well just take the current lay price and be done with it).

You can back and lay at betfair yes, but they will gub you if they see you doing it. Maybe search for trading perhaps on the forum, should bring something up.

(that last bit was a joke )

[nixonite]

You can back and lay at betfair yes, but they will gub you if they see you doing it.

I sure hope that was part of the joke

I did this once in the past and lost £300. Mostly my fault though (when isn't it ) Placed a £300 bet on a no loss bet to complete a WR, but accidently bet on the wrong event (same odds). Looked at BF and my loss at the time would have been £25ish. Waited for the next day for it to be played, hoping the odds would shorten nearer to kickoff. It didn't, and I would have at that point have made a £50ish loss. Decided to go in-running, hoping for an early goal, so I could lay off at lower odds. Needless to say the team got beaten 2-0 and hardly had a sniff at goal......

[munk]

First up yes it was a joke!

Ouch though yes that's painful, that should be on the mistakes thread hehe

I don't know if there's a thread already on trading on betfair, I'm sure I must have talked about it plenty enough Tel, if you have a search around you should find some info. I would recommend trying to trade on betfair with something like bet trader pro, just try trading 50p a time just so you know how it works and all that.

[Kiint]

I played around with trading on the exchanges for a bit after reading the 'Lay Back and Think of Winning' book. All went well at first and I was making a fair bit but then it all went wrong and I ended up a fair bit down. Trouble is that you can make a number of small profits that can then be wiped out by one bad movement in the odds if you're not quick enough to limit your losses.

Saying that though, I will sometimes wait for better odds on the horses. If you are laying a short odds favourite, it is a good bet that the odds will shorten just prior to the race although the operative word there is 'bet', it is still a gamble and they can go the other way as well.

[RudolphUcker]

All went well at first and I was making a fair bit but then it all went wrong and I ended up a fair bit down. Trouble is that you can make a number of small profits that can then be wiped out by one bad movement in the odds if you're not quick enough to limit your losses.

I've noticed this too. I've been experimenting with trading for a few weeks using minimum stakes and bet angel basic. I have yet to profit from it even though I reckon 70% of my trades are successful. It often just takes one bad move to lose the day's profit. Nevertheless, it intrigues me and I want to be successful at it.

[munk]

If I could only ever give one tip on trading it would be to cut your losses VERY quickly, accept small short sharp losses and move on like lightning.... I find it hard to do personally, I think it's human nature not to want to accept a loss - to think 'ok, the price went down from 2 to 1.98... I'll leave it though, it's sure to pick back up again'... and before you know it the price is at 1.9 I imagine taking a quick loss is probably simultaneously one of the most simplest and hardest things to get the hang of with trading.