Everytime I look at a horse racing market on Betfair and compare it to one on xyz site, I get paniced by the speed at which the markets change.
I just dont think I can bet and lay a horse fast enough.
it always seems to go:
1. spot an arb
2. work out bet sizes
3. go to place bet but odds have changed
4. work out new bet sizes
5. go to step 3 or give up trying
Well, have a look at the enhanced odds thread for bet365, I think I posted lots of tips for horse arbing in there.
The key points I'd say are:
- Use a betfair standalone application like Bet Trader Pro.
- Open the next 10 races in BTP.
- Open the next 10 races in your browser.
- Compare anything that's further than 20 minutes away, anything less will just be in 'trader mode' and will move to quickly on both sides to be any use for match betting (you'll basically be trading if you do it in the last 10-20 mins before the off and the prices could go all over the shop).
- When you spot something close, either drop the back/lay bet immediately or queue your lay bet and use firefox reload addon to reload the bookie prices every 5-30 seconds, as soon as the back price drops, cancel the lay bet.
It's worth using BTP for anything you do on Betfair IMO, I never use the Betfair site unless I don't have BTP installed on the machine I'm using (maybe for when I need to search for a market). Check the enhanced odds thread though there's more info there.
Last summer I had £200 on a horse at Lingfield @4 with the bookie and 3.75 @ Betfair.
Originally Posted by AmeliesDad
The horse was first past the post, but jockey disqualified for weighing in light.
Bookie and betfair paid out . £800+ profit. Sadly , only about 7/8 disqualifications a year now as the interference rules changed.
If this is for freebets:
Originally Posted by SK_Punter
You need to work on steps 2 and 4. As soon as you see it on your screen back and lay straight away, depending on how much your freebet is/what type it is will depend on how much you think you should lay, but basically if you have sat and thought about it the amounts then the odds will have moved. You just need to know in your head what you want from it and hit it the second the odds are favourable.
As a rule say its odds around 11s, and a £50 freebet, i know as soon as the lay odds go under take a £45 lay stake and it will all be fine. So i would do that.
If its trying to JUST get an arb, try to start with getting your stake on at the bookmaker and lay that stake exactly at betfair at the arb odds, you know you will need at least that. That sorts most of it out. You can then tweak it laying a small bit more to be your garunteed profit but because its only the much smaller amount thats subject to future movements even if the odds do drift out they wont hurt as much, and mostly its still an arb and the odds might continue to come in anyway.
Have a plan and stick to it
I'm really struggling to find arbs, am I looking in the wrong place?
Originally Posted by Gibber
I was thinking like you Tel, and still am to a degree ... but lately, a couple of things have set off alarm bells on where I can sometimes find very small arbs ... ie which sites and on what markets
yesterday, I found an arb for dutching (if thats the terminology) ... my first I think and it was a really small percentage arb, which is sorta good because if it was a big percentage I would not have been so happy to spot it ... opportunities to dutch for profit are certainly not obvious to my relatively untrained eye ... it was only small, but since was profit, i had a pretty big bet by my standards and busted a good whack of cash out of a site so was very happy, and was somewhat chuffed with my find
and finally, I have spotted an opportunity that will present dutches on a regular basis ... just require the float to make it worthwhile i think
so basically, I'm feeling a little like you I suspect - nobody is gonna come out and give us their secrets to finding arbs ... maybe the odd hint, but nothing concrete ... but over time I suspect the more we stick at this caper, the easier it will be to spot markets/bookies where they occur
I began a file with notes on stuff I have noticed and to search in the future ... its growing, slowly ... so I figure if I go over it every now and again, will reap some rewards
ps I have also deliberately tried to diversify the bet types I am using and on a wider range of sports in an effort to work on this aspect ... simply betting on the 1X2 market of football games all the time might prevent you from spotting stuff on the sites you visit
Cheers, Makybe !
Everything ends badly, otherwise it wouldn't end.
Yeah you're right Makybe, I managed to secure a few arbs on the horses today and must say I prefer it to football, although they both have their advantages.
Anyway regarding which sports how about Greyhound racing? Not much liquidity but enough in most cases.