Middles

[toonjangles]

Just wondering how folks here feel about middles.

I've seen them mentioned in the Bet Joint - Heroes thread. But for people that dont know a quick example would be:
Over/under market
Bet over 2.5 @ 2.0
Bet under 2.75 @ 2.0
So no matter how many goals are scored you dont lose money, however if 3 goals are scored you get your winnings from one site and half your stake back from the other.
You usually make a small lose qualifying but can make a bit back if your middle comes up

My experience of middles is pretty much limited to using them when odds have changed midbet and the middle has become an attactive option as the potential loss on the middle is now about the same as the loss on the ex-arb.

This happened last night and I was just thinking that quite a few of my middles have won leading me to consider maybe trying a few more.

[Fella]

My understanding (& one month ago I'd never even thought about middles) is that you have two options to clear a Heroes-Betjoint WR by dutching them together:

- the "zero-variance" method of simply looking for dutcharbs until you've met the WRs.

- the higher-variance "middles" method, whereby you will make a loss of anything from 0% up (to whatever you're prepared to lose) on each dutch. However every dutch gives you the chance to hit the jackpot with a middle.

Without having any figures or experience whatsoever I suspect that in the long run they are equally good. You could reduce the variance of playing middles by keeping your stakes lower & betting on more matches.

If you have a bit of gamble in you then the middles method would appeal for obvious reasons.

And if you can find a middle that's a slight arb then obv that's the dream ticket

[Andy]

This happened last night and I was just thinking that quite a few of my middles have won leading me to consider maybe trying a few more.

The more you try the more that will hit, obviously. There is no hard and fast rule for it though, but middles on low numbers will hit more often than higher spreads as there is predicted to be less variance, so a spread handicap of +3.5 and -2.5 is better than a spread of +15.5 and -14.5 for example. Depending on the Sport different numbers are slightly better, if it was NFL the "3" is a good number as its one of the main scores so teams win a disproportionate amount by 3 rather than 2 or 4. Also the wider the "middle" obviously the better it is.

If it is a risk free middle then go for it always, if it is taking a loss it is just a guess really as to if it is worth it, its up to you. I would take up to 10% loss on it if i am busting a bonus anyway and think there is a fair chance it will hit, i dont think i have ever taken more than a 10% loss though.

[Landprofits]

I was looking at Middles (experimenting on paper) yesterday - and it seems to me that the half goal in the Under/Over goals markets kind of screw that idea up.

Attempting to combine the 2.5 and 3.5 markets for instance;

£100 @ 2.33 Over 3.5
£128 @ 1.82 Under 2.5

If 3 Goals are scored - both bets would lose.

However, say if you were betting on Cricket runs;

£100 @ 2.33 Over 200 runs
£128 @ 1.28 Under 210 runs

That's an arb, + if there were 201-209 runs then both bets would win, giving you your middle.

Middles apply to totals markets, which prompted me to look at the over/under goals markets, but it seems to me that the presence of the half goal messes this up.

Any thoughts on this?

[butty]

the half goal doesn't necessarily mess up the middle.
Your first example is not a match though. You would need
under 3.5 v over 2.5
to create the 'middle'
(whether you'd find odds worthwhile is a different matter)

[MITK]

Soccer totals is not a place you would look for middles. The odds margin makes it a possibly quite costly gamble if youre betting on under 3,5 and over 2,5 hoping for hitting the middle with 3 goals result.

NBA and especially NCAAB is the middles` haven. Its not a rarity in NCAAB to find middles of 2-3 points with 1% or less loss on odds, which are well worth doing

[Landprofits]

the half goal doesn't necessarily mess up the middle.
Your first example is not a match though. You would need
under 3.5 v over 2.5
to create the 'middle'
(whether you'd find odds worthwhile is a different matter)

Think I might have written that the wrong way round

[EvilMickey]

Yeah. Your UNDER number needs to be higher than your OVER number to get a middle.

I can only say what's gone before; basketball is where middles are at. I had one last season that was a spread, Team A +6.5, Team B -4.5 I think it was. This was at Pinncle, where you can change the spread a few points. I had the option of the "risky" middle, hoping for 5 or 6 points difference, or could turn it into a whopping arb by matching -4.5 with +4.5. I took the safe option, made $30 and the points difference was 5 exactly. Had I taken the middle I'd have made a cool $2000! (But had the middle not come in, it would've been a $75 loss).

An area I intend to explore more this season for sure...

[Landprofits]

Yeah. Your UNDER number needs to be higher than your OVER number to get a middle.

I'll ake sure I get that rule into my head...

I can only say what's gone before; basketball is where middles are at. I had one last season that was a spread, Team A +6.5, Team B -4.5 I think it was. This was at Pinncle, where you can change the spread a few points. I had the option of the "risky" middle, hoping for 5 or 6 points difference, or could turn it into a whopping arb by matching -4.5 with +4.5. I took the safe option, made $30 and the points difference was 5 exactly. Had I taken the middle I'd have made a cool $2000! (But had the middle not come in, it would've been a $75 loss).

Interesting. Certainly not risk free like Matched Betting or straight Arbing, but vertainly the potential for a huge EV advantage......

An area I intend to explore more this season for sure

Good luck with that!

[EvilMickey]

To further that rule (and maybe confuse the hell out of you!):

When dealing with point spreads, the +ve number must be bigger than the -ve number;

so Team A +6.5
Team B -4.5

This is the same as dutching AH against EH (-1 goal Vs + 1.5AH)

With totals it's UNDERS being a higher number than OVERS

so UNDER 178
OVER 175

Easy to get them the wrong way round, so make sure in your head you do the "what if" scenarios!