Pokebus Spreadsheets - Complex dutching with handicaps or total goals etc

[Pokebus]

This is the latest version of my dutching spreadsheet.

It has a lot of different ways to dutch handicaps, and a few for the total goals market.

Also, it has a sheet that allows you to enter all the odds you can find for a particular game, so it can suggest the most profitable combination.

[doomed]

Excellent, Pokebus!

Exactly what I was waiting for!

One request for the next version: any chance of including the simple 1X2 dutch on the Best sheet? Sometimes it is the best combination. Cheers!

[bandog]

It would be indeed 3.40%, but the figures would be different too, unfortunately lower, as per max limit at snacks of £70.00.

£35.42 2.500 1
£70.00 1.600 1X
£88.54 2.265 2AH(0)

________________
£6.59 3.40%

So in this case you earn less profit at higher return.


Your example is good for books with no limit though. Thanks for the SS anyway and for your effort,

cheers

[Pokebus]

..any chance of including the simple 1X2 dutch on the Best sheet? Sometimes it is the best combination..

Put it in yourself if you like:

=(B3-(1+B3/F3+B3/I3))/(1+B3/F3+B3/I3)*100 (this doesn't take commission into account by the way)

I did consider including the 1X2, but I thought that it was so unlikely to be the best arb that I didn't bother with it. I may of course be wrong about that.

So in this case you earn less profit at higher return.

Yes, you're right about that. This is not the first time I've failed to out-grumble grumbler, and I'm sure it won't be the last

[Andy]

(sorry Andy, but munk said it was OK).

lol, thats fine by me, just because i dont understand them doesnt mean other people wont

Im moving it to Player Support section though in next 24hrs because it isnt really a bonus, and also it will stay on the front page there for longer.

[robster999]

just because i dont understand them doesnt mean other people wont

I'm one of those who doesn't quite get it, but I'll have a stab at it and hope someone points me in the right direction if I'm miles out.

£70.00 2.500 1
£70.00 1.600 1X
£126.71 2.265 2AH(0)
£12.07 4.000 X
______________
£8.22 2.95%

With the figures above I am thinking
1 is covered (obvious I know)
1X is covered as this is a double chance covering home and draw
2AH(0) covers away win (not sure what the (0) means as I thought Asians eliminated the draw anyway
X again obvious but not sure why you would want to use it as the draw appears to me covered in the 1X.

£35.42 2.500 1
£70.00 1.600 1X
£88.54 2.265 2AH(0)

This one I follow but why the need for 1 being covered twice.

Sorry if this sounds stupid but you can probably tell I am just setting out on the dutching path and I am only really comfortable with the Team A/ Team B +0.5 scenarios.

TIA

________________
£6.59 3.40%

[Pokebus]

Actually for the 1-1X-2(0)-X, the draw is covered three times - only the 1 loses, 1X is a win, X is a win, and 2(0) is a refund.

You can get from 1/1X/2(0)/X to the 1/1X/2AH(0) by manually adjusting the 1X stake upwards until the required X stake is zero.

The whole principle behind it really is that if you cover all outcomes multiple times and in various combinations in a (to me anyway) non-intuitive way, you can squeeze extra profit out. It just works that way, I don't have a better explanation.*

TBH, most of these combinations were suggested to me by somebody else, whom I think has a much better intrinsic understanding of it than me. I just did the algebra.

*although after having a bit of a think, there's no possible way all the multifarious odds/combinations on offer can all lead to the exact same profit, so if there's five or six ways to cover all the outcomes, the chances are one of the more complex ones will be the best, simply because there are more of them. For example, if there are decent odds on 1 and 1EH-1, this can be dutched with 2(+0.75),
2(+1) or 2(+1.25). One of the Asians may be 0.02 or 0.03 above the rest on one of those three, and there you go, that'll be the best arb.

[J-B]

This is fantastic...there are so many combinations here that it'll take me ages to get my head round it all. Thanks very much for pulling all this together.

[munk]

Yes Pokebus thanks for the contribution it is really appreciated... need to download this latest spreadsheet! So do you do your working on on paper first then... that would be fun, add a scan of your algebra working out to the workbook... Andy will understand it then! @ Andy

[Pokebus]

I've chucked all my workings away now, but it's really not hard to work out.

Take the 1 - 1X - 2(0) - X

Constants:
S=stake on 1 and 1X
D=odds on 1
E=odds on 1X
F=odds on 2(0)
G=odds on X
P=push loss%, and P'=(100-P)/100

Variables:
x=stake on 2(0)
y=stake on X

If 1 wins, the outcome is wins for 1 and 1X only = S(D+E)
If draw, 1 loses, 1X wins, 2(0) pushes, X wins = SE+xP'+yG
If 2 wins, 2(0) wins only = xF

Now, we're dutching here, so all outcomes are equal.

S(D+E) = SE+xP'+yG = xF

Then solve for x and y