Asian WRs with a small float

[Pokebus]

I have long been of the opinion that you really don't need a float the same size as the WR safely to do an Asian bookie bonus, as on average you'll lose at least half your bets.

However, signing up to M88 has prompted me to put this vague assertion onto a more sound mathematical footing, as I really wanted
to know how quickly I could get through the WR at this appalling site.

Anyway, I've made a little spreadsheet to work out just how much you can bet each time and still be safe; I found that I was being way too cautious. It's based on every bet having a 50% chance of winning, with a payout at 2.00. In reality, for a 50/50 bet the payout will be at 1.95 or below, so I'm erring on the side of caution here.

It's a bit clunky, you can make it do strange things by varying stakes by small amounts, due to several cells being set as integers, but I think it does what I set out to do. Don't set the proposed stake too low though, Excel cannot do factorials above about 170, the numbers get too big.

I note that a couple of people on the chat thread are doing maths degrees, so I expect to be shot down quite soon



IMO don't attempt an Asian bonus if your float is less than half the WR though, as an initial bad winning streak will have nasty consequences that are not factored into my calculations.

[munk]

I have long been of the opinion that you really don't need a float the same size as the WR safely to do an Asian bookie bonus, as on average you'll lose at least half your bets.

However, signing up to M88 has prompted me to put this vague assertion onto a more sound mathematical footing, as I really wanted
to know how quickly I could get through the WR at this appalling site.

Anyway, I've made a little spreadsheet to work out just how much you can bet each time and still be safe; I found that I was being way too cautious. It's based on every bet having a 50% chance of winning, with a payout at 2.00. In reality, for a 50/50 bet the payout will be at 1.95 or below, so I'm erring on the side of caution here.

It's a bit clunky, you can make it do strange things by varying stakes by small amounts, due to several cells being set as integers, but I think it does what I set out to do. Don't set the proposed stake too low though, Excel cannot do factorials above about 170, the numbers get too big.

I note that a couple of people on the chat thread are doing maths degrees, so I expect to be shot down quite soon

I did a maths degree but we never covered gubbage probability

Actually never covered any stats at all at Uni, I gave that up at A Level unfortunately (well, unfortunately in retrospect anyway, didn't love stats but it was OK).

The sheet does look to be correct ala the pasted wiki formula after unhiding the hidden cells and having a looksee at the cell formula, but like you it's been nearly 20yrs since I did stats as well. But like you say someone with a few more brain cells may well point something out

If that's correct then like you say you can afford to be a bit less conservative perhaps, even at £100 per stake at around 1.95 odds you can afford to win 23 in a row before you've exhausted your float. So basically just stick to smaller stakes.

Very interesting thanks.