The 9/4.35 was indeed a bet on the horses. I laid the horse, NOT the place and the number of horses was the same on both bookie and betfair. Initially I saw lowish odds on befair and when I checked half an hour later the price on betfair just kept dropping in front of my eyes. Could not believe it, waited, checked, waited, double checked and went for it. Bookie reduced odds to 3 immediately after my bet. So in my opinion the bookie was slow, very slow.
Was not sure if bookie would try to cancel my bet due to an "error", so I kept checking before the race in case I had to do a damage limiting back bet. Thought I would get gubbed after that but managed to place another arb there (only 13/9.8).
Don't know why you are having a go at me when Munk found a similar huge arb of 200/100?
Nobody was having a go at you, just pointing out it looked "odd". I did say I could be and usually am wrong.
Originally Posted by Panda
Munks odds were also (I would imagine) part of the Bet365 enhanced odds offer and there having huge arbs on the outsiders were not so uncommon. Might be wrong about that too but I suspect it was.
Have a plan and stick to it
had quite a good one recently, backed at 51, laid at just shy of 40.
remember backing a scottish league match years ago at around 9, laying off at around 4.5 years ago. twas back in the day when you had to hunt your own arbs down by pouring through every market- made me a couple of shillings.
sorry meant at bet365 vs betfair,
Originally Posted by Andy
not sure it just came up in the bets placed as 6.15 i was placing on at 6.2
Spain for world cup
Had 26 v 21 on the Tour de France today at BetAfterBet of all places. Only managed £78 on it though before limited (and when I reloaded the page, the odds were down to 15 after my bet ).
Biggest ever would probably only be about that though. I usually go for high odds trying to (hopefully) bust out of most places
Panda, I was trying to be helpful as you said you were playing with arbs for only 5 days and back to win/lay to place is probably the most common error which would throw up odds like that - when the horse doesn't win people natuarlly don't check the back bet again because there's no book returns to monitor. If people don't point such a thing out, someone might have done it and never know and if you do point it out then it's not to cause offence.
It is only my opinion based upon my experience but the times I've seen anything like that on relatively short odds is on unreformed markets (which can list the same number of runners @ BF anyway), different markets or where the back would have been taken some time prior to lay as it steamed in over a number of minutes.
There's also a huge difference in the likely safety of betting 51/40 bet and 2/1.61 bet even if they produce pretty much the same profit. The longer the odds, especially on enhanced markets, the more you find quite wide odds differences. An 8/1 going to 2/1 in a reformed market is highly unusual and you wouldn't know you'd be palped until it won at some books.
To be honest I don't know if I'd take that kind of arb again it's just too much hassle if it wins and they palp. It was a long time ago when I'd only been doing this for a few months and was getting a tad carried away arbing horses. Wasn't actually 200/100 either I should get off my arse and try and find out what it was...
Originally Posted by Panda
Ok eeps it's even larger than I thought, 201 to back vs 86 to lay:
1840 Ham - Our Belle 5@201 (365), 11.69@86 (BM) (almost exactly a year to the day, 12/07/08!)
If I saw that kind of arb now I wouldn't lay £11.69, I'd just lay £5, maybe £6 tops... even if it is a 200/1 shot... they do come in once every 200 times... and when they do it's instant account gubbing best case scenario (worst case they palp it and you're down best part of a grand). If I'd just layed £5.13@86 and it came in, potential profit of £570!
Mmm here's a fairly palpable arb:
TPS Turku vs HJK (finland valk, 19/07)
Huge middle... 8% arb...
Was a palp for sure, the odds were reversed. <3.5 was apparently less likely than <2.5.
Thanks Andi, Musicbox and Munk for your comments. I checked my bets with that bookie and the best arb I won at the bookie is 10/7.5 which is obviously not as good as 9/4.35 and I do not know if they would have palped me on the latter one. It is a risk I have been happy to take with this bookie only as they do not allow huge stakes and their odds have been rather erratic (high and low) relative to others. I guess I will think differently once I have been palped but I had quite a lot of fun last week.