In all the Matched Bets I've done so far I've stuck rigidly to what my spreadsheet says on what to lay. Now I've read here that underlaying is a technique to use when matching but I've never really got the full grasp of it.
In my mind if you are backing an event and the odds are low so the event is likely to win, you underlay a bit. If you are backing an event to win and the odds are high so the event is unlikely to win, maybe to complete a SNR, you overlay a little.
I had six bets on the Champions League last night all qualifiers for free bets at various bookies with odds between 1.5 and 2.2, so I was thinking of underlaying each bet. I didn't and just matched them as per my spreadsheet. Guess what, every single bet lost, so if I did underlay I would have lost some profit.
Only games last night that I would have done underlay would have been the Real Madrid and Chelsea games. Sometimes you get it right sometimes you don't.
I had my largest ever bet at a book last night on Wolfsburg i underlayed so if it won i lost nothing if it lost then i was about £18 down i am happy with the result Hoping for one more bet like that to bust out.
Best guage for whether you have underlayed or overlayed enough, is do you have any preference as to the result. If you don't then you've got it about right.
"Bomber likes you!" R.I.P. Pat 1937 - 2004
Slightly rough figures but take a £50SNR 9/9 match. Locking in down the middle gives a profit of around £42.50.
Originally Posted by tgtslm
Underlaying by £2.50s worth of the SNR value means the worst you can do is around £40.50 (-£2ish on the middle lockin) but you could make about £60 (+£17.50 on the middle lockin).
Overlaying by £2.50s worth of the SNR value means the best you can do is around £44.50 (+£2 on the middle lockin) but you could win the bet and end up with only £25 profit (£15.50 down on the lockin).
Ok, so longer odds may lose more often than shorter odds but if your money is back in the exchange, it's ready to use and make money from. So an underlay is not only saying "I'm willing to lose £2 from the middle lockin to try and win an extra £17.50" (some people use that as a form of entertainment anyway if watching the race/game) but it's also saying "even if the bet loses, for £2, I have returned my cash to the exchange and I do not have a larger sum moving to the book" - a sum which you may have to withdraw and lose out on using for a day or two while it returns to the bank etc. At least if that happens, you rewarded yourself with £17.50 for the hassle. Also, if books look more at accounts at times of withdrawals, it may be worth rewarding yourself financially by underlaying as this takes into account what some feel is a heightened chance for scruntiny of the account.
On the other hand, if you have a 1.2/1.2 match on a £100 bet then the middle match is to lose 87p. But say you want to make £1 profit... well, to do so you're going to have to risk losing almost a tenner.
There's no one way of doing any of this - for a long time I matched straight down the middle but I feel now that doing that doesn't take into account the other kind of factors I've mentioned. Still, there's nothing wrong with it if that's what you want. But I really wouldn't overlay long odds. The small amounts you make when it goes your way will get wiped when one doesn't plus you won't have rewarded yourself for the pleasure of having your funds in the book.
Equally you could underlay 3 horses on the trot and all could come in as winners. And if you didn't lay at all, the same three horses may have bagged £2k... that's how it goes and you have to do what you'll be comfortable with and if underlaying bets which go on to lose will be too concerning then that in itself may be a reason to not do it.
Originally Posted by tgtslm
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