I'm thinking of trying this strategy for making sustainable long term profits from arbs on the Racing Post's tipster Pricewise. From the limited research I have done it seems that his main tip on Saturdays (and weekdays for big race meetings) always gets the odds considerably reduced by the bookies. So I will be looking to back his tip at the best price possible and then lay it when the word gets out and the bookies (and Betfair/Betdaq) cut the oddds therefore making a decent arb. I will only lay enough money to cover my stake should the horse lose but make a big gain should it win. In effect I will be having a free bet on all his tips. The key to all this happening is getting hold of his tips before all the bookies cut the odds. Does anyone know what is the best way to get hold of this information?
There used to be someone who posted on the Betfair forum who got the Racing Post in the early hours of the morning and posted the pricewise selections.
I'm not sure if he still posts or not.
Make friends with him. Which is a serious answer becasue what you suggest does happen, but he would tell his friends/family which horses to get on first before the odds fall. You will only ever be 2nd or 3rd or 4th on the "grapevine" really, but the higher you can get, the more potential £s are there for you.
Originally Posted by madmick50
Have a plan and stick to it
Thanks mojo100. I got up early today and checked the Betfair forum (I also checked it late last night). The tips were posted at 6.51a.m.
Sweetheart 15.0 at 2.10pm ( I got 13.0 at W Hill)
Highland Glen 11.0 at 4.00pm (I got 9.0 at W Hill)
Wins Now 9.0 at 4.25pm (I got 7.5 at W Hill)
Another Coppercoast 41.0 at 4.25pm (I got 41.0 at Ladbrokes)
I managed to get £100 on each horse. The best odds available now are as follows:
Highland Glen 8.0
Wins Now 7.0
Another Coppercoast 34.0
The best lay odds currently available are as follows:
Highland Glen 8.4
Wins Now 7.0
Another Coppercoast 29.0
I use Bestbettingoddds to compare the odds. So every tip is now an arb. I am going to wait till nearer the off and hope the lay odds shorten further. My strategy will also be to only use bookies that do best price guaranteed to minimise the effect of the price moving in the wrong direction (I used Ladbrokes today even though they are not best price guaranteed as the next best odds available were 34.0).
I'll report back later to let everyone know what happened.
Off to a perfect start. Sweetheart won. I managed to lay at 9.2 at Betdaq (3% commision) so have made a profit of £354.58 so far.
Highland Glen refused to go in the stalls but would have been a nice arb if it had won. Managed to lay it at 6.4.
Wins Now was unplaced and was laid off at 6.4 so would have been a good arb. Finally Another Coppercoast was placed at an SP of 17.0. I backed it to win and laid it off at 28.0 so a great arb if it had won. So overall, a very successful day with my theory of the odds getting cut and creating good arbs seeming to stack up. I feel I must mention some advice given by munk in a previous posting. I always used to take the small profit whether the horse won or lost on previous arbs. munk suggested only covering the stake if you lost and therefore winning a lot more money if the horse won. I've been doing this for a while now and am making a lot more money with this method than the standard matched betting way of doing things. So many thanks munk.
Nice one, I heard on c4 racing that sweetheart was a pricewise pick and thought of this thread, well done
Looks like you are onto a winner here Mick, hope the trend continues for you!
He tipped another in the 4pm race, I jumped on it very late but the lay odds did tumble, I was looking at a good arb but the bloody nag refused to get in the stall!
Interesting thread: I would deffo be wary of being gubbed though - my understanding was that the bookies are well aware of the pricewise selections & quick to limit people who bet on them.
(that's not first-hand knowledge though, so YMMV, just wanted to mention it).
Surely you could avoid any gubbing by just backing at betfair? While the liquidity early morning might not be so great, you'll surely get matched eventually.