As a minor addition, you could consider slightly underlaying your initial lay, for a greater loss if it loses, and a smaller loss/greater profit if it wins, to compensate for the loss for a future bet, much like when completing an SR with an opportunity to bust out early.
In CountryLad's example, if the first bet loses at the bookies, you're out for a 21p loss, but if it wins and you have to place a second bet, you're 55p down (21p from the first bet and 34p from the second).
For doubles, the compensating amount is easy. You reckon on losing 34p on the second bet, so put this in stake forfeit on your first bet.
This now gives a lay stake of £10.05.
If it loses at the bookies, you bust out for a net loss of 46p.
If it wins at the bookies, you're 12p down after your first bet, a further 34p from your second bet, again for a net loss of 46p.
For small amounts, it probably isn't worth the extra time to possibly save a few pennies, but it might be useful for larger bets.
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thanked for this post
Mate, you are the greatest!
Originally Posted by CountryLad
I realize that I get the liability wrong at betfair. Now I am studying the multiple refund offer from betsson. If I fully lay at Betfair but win at Betsson, I get nothing. I suppose this is like a stake not return freebet. Where can I find a freebet calculator for the calculation of how much I should lay to guarantee equal return in both outcomes? And if such calculator is nowhere to be found, how can I use a freebet calculator that would calculate the lay amount for SNR to obtain the amount to lay for both the first part and the second part of a double?
Quick answer - you can't guarantee an equal match win/lose as you can't know exactly what odds you'll get for the second leg until you come to lay it. If you guess, and got it wrong it could be expensive. My personal preference for this would be to simply lay off the first leg as described before - then you're up by roughly the lay return if it loses and the account credit has a 1*WR. If the 1st leg wins, then I would treat the 2nd leg as a normal 'bonus if loses'* single bet. (In reality I would use my discretion and underlay the 1st leg a bit, to balance things a little (but not too much), to avoid losing money if the 2nd leg lay odds are bad.) The higher the odds on the 2nd leg the better the return if the 1st leg wins.
Originally Posted by chingkuen
You asked for an equal match, but this offer is repeatable until you have had 3 losses, so you might want to consider biasing the returns a lot towards the loss scenario. A search shows that many have even mugged their bets until the 3 refunds have been used, but if you lose your 1st 3 multiples you would end up with no profit and with a bet still to make by that method.
*Lazza's excellent multimatcher sheet
has a tab for working out 'bonus if loses' calculations for doing the 2nd leg.
>You asked for an equal match, but this offer is repeatable until you have had 3 losses, >so you might want to consider biasing the returns a lot towards the loss scenario. A >search shows that many have even mugged their bets until the 3 refunds have been
> used, but if you lose your 1st 3 multiples you would end up with no profit and with a
> bet still to make by that method.
Hi, can you clarify this last bit?
>biasing the returns a lot towards the loss scenario = overlay? creating multiples with underdogs, not from favors?
>mugged = ? I am not a native speaker. What is the meaning of mug?
> if you lose your 1st 3 multiples you would end up with no profit and with a
> bet still to make by that method
I think the terms say the lost multiples will be refunded. With the lay won at BF, would it be a net win? I cannot understand...
Thanks in advance
Originally Posted by chingkuen
By 'mugging' a bet, we mean just betting (without matching it by laying it off, or dutching etc.). The refund cannot just be withdrawn, but will have to be used to place bets, so by betting the doubles without matching, and loosing all three in a row, you will get the refunds, but will likely lose money by matching it, unless you can find a suitable arb.
By laying off at an exchange such as Betfair, you can guarantee a profit from this offer, yes.
By writing 'biasing the returns a lot towards the loss' I mean laying more, yes.
Thanks to all those who offer help. Now an advance question(?).
I see bookies offering bonus to wins from multiples. While I can see the point that you have absolutely no control over how the odds for the second part of your multiple would go after laying the first part of your multiple, I am just wondering will the bonus to wins offered by bookies on multiples (like those offered by Canbet and Bet365) balance off the fluctuation most of the time.
What is your experience with the second part of your multiples?
I guess I am not ready to it but just curious.
It shouldn't really be too much of a problem. How variable things are depends upon your choice of market (e.g. horse racing or football), but you can never be sure, of course! I only meant the statement about the changing odds to apply in the context of the bonus on lose offer, with the suggested idea of getting an exact match across both legs of the multiple, which I don't think you need to do.
Originally Posted by chingkuen
The best way to convince yourself that you're ready, is to do some 'simulations', perhaps with a pen and paper, using real odds.
I'd be interested in links to those offers you mention, by the way!
Double bet help needed ASAP!
Yesterday I made a bet on of 45£ at 1.65 odds at bookie and layed it at BF for 1.66.
Then I saw that in the bookie I have another bet at 3.52 in the same betslip.
So I have total odds of 5.82 and need to lay the second one. The gamne of the first bet already started I know that if I win at bookie I have to lay the second one.
But how much do I lay?
Thank you the second game starts on 50min
If your first bet won then use the stake * OddsOfFirstBet as stake in the spreadsheet, then lay off as you woud normally do.
Back odds: 3.52
Lay odds: ??
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