Horse racing Rule 4
I never know what to do when there's reductions.. If I have a lay queued, and betfair changes the odds.. I never know what to re-lay so it gets taken...?
What do others do?
Keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best!! Or get someone in chatbox to save me hehe
It's quite a simple calculation so long as you know what the rule 4 deduction is at the bookie. Post your figures here and if I'm not at lunch (or even working) I'll try to work it out for you.
FWIW if a Rule 4 is applied after you've backed and layed it's usually to your advantage, as the exchanges tend to deduct more, giving you an underlay. Obviously this only makes a difference if the nag wins.
Just re-read your post and realised you're just asking what we do rather than looking for help on a current bet.
Okay, here goes:
If you had a bet at odds of 8.0 and a Rule 4 gave a 10% deduction then your new back odds are (0.9 x 7) +1 = 7.3.
A 15% deduction would be (0.85 x7) +1 = 6.95.
I then change my back odds to what the new odds are and alter the lay accordingly.
e.g £50 back at 8.0 with £57.55 lay at betfair at 7.0 (5% commission) gives a profit of £4.78.
10% Rule 4 = new back odds of 7.3. Lay odds of 7 would now lose 11p on a £52.52 lay, so I would look to lay somewhere around 6.4 (a lay of £57.48 would make £4.61). Obviously your lay might not get taken, then you might need to adjust up a bit.
only £10.00 @6.5 reduction 18.2 % (4 horses..)
betfair set it 5.4.. but that's not gonna get matched..
1. Find which horse has been withdrawn.
2. Go to oddschecker, find the race and look for your horse matched against the column where you back bet is placed. This is because BF has its own reduction factor and it's not closely indicative of the potential reduction (if any) at the book.
3. Use the oddschecker odds (which should at worst be a pretty good indication) to see what deduction on any winnings the book would make should you win (it'll be covered in their rule section).
4. Basically you can then see what, if any, effect the withdrawal has had to your back bet's potential returns and alter your unmatched lay stake/lay odds accordingly.
that's what I do.. sure there's a forumula!!
Originally Posted by srh1984
AFAIK there is no rule 4 at a bookies that's 18.2%. Sounds most likely that the bookies Rule 4 is 15%. An 18.2% deduction gives odds of 5.499. A 15% rule 4 gives odds of 5.675.
Originally Posted by bella
Here is a list of Rule 4 deductions.
Rule 4 Deductions
Thanks Bill this is really helpful as I too never understood properly how to do it, Might be being stupid here but on the above calculation is 0.9 due to it being 10% reduction ie if it was a 5% reduction it would be 0.95?
Originally Posted by bioboybill
And also the 7, I take it because in general odds: 8 = 7/1?
Yeah, you are correct on all counts.
Originally Posted by srh1984
The 7 is because the odds are 7/1. The deduction doesn't include your stake money, so you ignore that part of the decimal odds of 8.
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