Anybody bother with High Odds?
Often times I will find a match or an arb with High Odds, for instance - just found a back at 60 and a lay at 55 (5% commission).
Does anybody bother with these? The trouble is, the lay side ties up a massive amount of float and if you're haveing few days where you're transferring money back and forth etc you end up with nothing to bet with...
Not usually unless either a. it's a horse race that will settle quickly or b. I have shared liability on the same market already (I've just done a few of these with one 67/60 arb on a correct score market... even though I had other liability on that market I'm cursing doing it because it doesn't settle until 11pm tonight!).
Originally Posted by Landprofits
With long odds arbs I definitely NEVER fully match it out though, it's just not efficient in the long term viz-a-viz getting limited if your longshot comes in at the bookie.
With that 67/60 match here are some scenarios (all 5% commission at betfair, say):
Back £10@67, lay £11.18@60
This is fully 'hedged' / optimized to maximize profit no matter what the result... grand profit: 62p
Back £10@67, lay £10.53@60
This is underlayed to make no profit if it loses or a bigger profit if it wins... profit if wins: £38.73
Back £10@67, lay £10@60
This will lose the commission amount if the selection loses or make a much much bigger profit if it wins... profit if wins: £70
So with just really quite tiny changes in lay stake there's a massive increase in profits if the selection wins. Ok it might only win once in 60 tries, but if/when you hit that winner you'll be instantly limited at the bookie so in my opinion it's definitely worth underlaying at least enough so you make nothing if it loses.
I don't really have a problem with taking high odds if the market will settle quickly. For example if a horse race will be done in ten minutes time and I can get a long odds bet on, underlay to break even and I wouldn't be using my money elsewhere at that time, then why not.
Another thing I would consider is if you do anything like Andy's done with his long term arb thread (think it's Champs League from memory). If he had put £100 on 4 or 5 teams to win the CL, laid them and created £1k of liability in the market then if he spots a long shot which is a small arb, he can bet £10 or £20 say and this is likely not affecting his overal BF liability at all since it can be combined into the current liability.
With SNRs, it would depend a bit on how you match them out. If you always match out down the middle and don't underlay then there's probably little point ignoring taking a 7/7 match in favour of making 30p more or whatever on a 21/23 match simply because of the added amount it ties up is out of proportion with 30p extra profit. Underlaying by its nature give you a better profit should it win and therefore you might consider it's worth going for the higher odds, underlaying and hoping for the win and that "payoff chance" is worth tieing up added funds for.
.Few months ago I backed one early price 33/1 at Sptg. Bet. Horse was then subject of hefty support in the ring and went off 10/1.Horse finished out with the washing and I thought I may have got away with it.No such luck,account was gubbed the following day.And there lies the problem, if the bookies see you backing 'inspired runners' your account is doomed whether they win or lose and unfortunately many outsiders that can be matched out fall into this category.
Yes musicbox raises another good point, betting on high odds can be fine if you've already decided to run a book on a certain long term event like the EPL or CL or some medium term market like the US Open golf or Wimbledon. ON a lot of those kind of future markets you can often find some great arbs and it's a lot of fun running the book (I find anyway!) especially if you don't fully lay everything to start with and then just 'tweak' it as prices move around.
I'll occasionally use high odds. If I've got a few quid in an account, I'll usually try and bust it out with a high odds arb, fully underlaid for no loss if it loses. Other than that, I don't tend to unless I'm combining liabilities.
I have like those above only done this when not tying up large amounts of my BF funds in liability. I got a decent match on a Laddies tenner at the weekend 34/32 on Manure v Sunderland and nearly had a baby when it looked like £300 odd quid was going to Lads. I would still do this but would only do it where there is a quick turnround of money and more importantly when you have a large enough float to allow you to continue elsewhere.