Understanding ebbs and flows in betting markets
I was wondering if anyone can offer some insight into this.
I have been paying more attention to minute-to-minute swings in betting markets. I have noticed certain things, such as BetFair seeming to always be a little bit ahead of BetDaq etc.
Which makes me wonder... what influences the shifts in prices on the markets? I've heard a rumour that SBO are used by some books as a way of setting their own prices.
Are the markets simply influenced by the amount of money going down on the different outcomes in an event?
"Pay no attention to what the critics say. No statue has ever been erected to a critic."
my understanding is that a decent book, i.e. the Greek, Pinny or 5 dimes have a trader who decides the likely hood of an event occurring, they price up the likelihood and then take money on it... from there on weight of money and any update in circumstances (not withstanding money taken) will determine prices until the event starts?
When you have big shifts, it's Mafia for sure... Sbo and asians just adjust quickly to the amounts that they're receiving
Originally Posted by U4EA
Of course if you have Barša - Real and you have Messi or Ronaldo injured just before the game, you will also see a huge shift, but that's the market working and nothing to do with mafia
Betdaq seeds some of its markets with "ghost money" and you may have noticed that sometimes when you go to place a bet and you click submit, the odds you were going to take simply disappear along with all the money and you move to the first in the queue at the odds you wanted. Perhaps it's technically possible to track Betfair's odds, seeding markets where necessary to appear in-line but slightly delayed? I don't know but it's a guess anyway.
As for swings, I think it's possible for large movements to be caused by traders spoofing the market. Also, if you think about X-Factor for example, when Simon Cowell stands up to applaud one of the contestants, you'll likely see a large shortening in their odds! Or when a trainer comes on TV 5 minutes before the race and says he's pretty worried about the worsening ground because the last time his horse ran in such conditions it would have finished second to a moonwalking Gary Coleman.
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