Not quite as revolutionary as the title suggests! Just a couple of thoughts I'd like to discuss.

Q:Should I place bets at high odds during a wr so I'm more likely to but out?

Common A:No you should underlay so that you don't mind if you have to finish the wr.

I'm not convinced about this. Underlaying only affects your point of view. In the long term you'll make roughly the same amount whether you underlay or not.

But betting at high odds is a different matter. Lets say that you have a £150 wagering requirement and £50 in cash/bonuses. Lets also say that you take a 95% return.

So you place your first bet at odds of 2, and lose £2.5. If the odds are correct there is a 50% chance of winning and having to place another bet. The second bet would lose you £5, but as you only have to do it once out of every two times, it averages out as £2.5.

So on average you will lose £5 on this offer by taking low odds.

You place your first bet at 7, and lose £2.5. If the odds are correct you will win once out of every seven. The second bet would lose £5, but as you only have to do it once every seven, it averages out as 72p.

So on average you would lose £3.22 by taking high odds.

So at odds of 7 you only have to complete the wr, once out of every seven, but at 2 you have to complete it half the time.

I'd be interested to hear eveyone's thoughts.

Q:Will I make more money if it don't lay at all?

Common answer:Yes, you will make 5 - 10% more.

I'm not convinced here either.

If you take the Betfair odds to be correct (ie the true probability of the event occurring) then without commission laying at Betfair would not affect your overall profits as the difference between the betfair odds and the back odds would be the difference between the correct price and what you're taking, so you'd lose the difference in the long term anyway.

But with commission you're losing 5% of the value if you win. But by laying you're spreading the commission loss over both win and lose, so you lose about 2.5% whatever happens.

But if Betfair odds are correct, then the correct odds will be in-between the back and the lay so by taking the lay odds you're getting slightly worse than correct odds.

So you're losing just above 2.5%.

But are Betfair odds correct? Well no, we're probably taking on average better value. As we are looking for close matches the bookie obviously thinks that the odds should be higher than what they are. Is betfair right or is the bookies, well chances are it varies. But whenever the bookies are right it means you are getting value.

I can't really make a guess at how much value you're getting. It would depend on what type of odds you're taking. But if it's more than 2.5% then you actually make money by laying. Or if it's only 1 or 2%, than that still means that you're only make 1% more by not laying.

Once again, thoughts? I look forward to being disproved