Mugging vs Matching
There was a conversation in the chat some time last week about whether it is more profitable to mug or match your advantage bets and free bets. I'm of the opinion it is more profitable to mug your advantage bets for a couple of reasons:
1: You don't have to pay commission at an exchange or if your matching at an asian they will have a vig so even though you may be making profit the exchange or asian are always taking their cut.
2: Better use of float - how much of your float do you set aside for matching? Sometimes I have up to 40% of my float sitting in asians/pinny or an exchange.
3: Better use of time - no longer would you have to sit there working out a complicated 3 way dutch, just take the value bet and move on to the next.
4: Less liability in a dodgy book - so this would mean you can potentially try more sportsbooks out with less risk. You can put in what you can afford to lose and if you build up a balance there is not so much of a sweat to get your money back.
5: Look at dulence's diary: http://www.thegamblingtimes.com/boar...tml#post229930 he explains what I've said well and as you can see it works well for him.
Personally I'm still way off completely mugging all my bets, for some US books I would have 4 figures on something to complete a WR. I still haven't the balls to let it ride. But I am mugging more and more, I'm not advocating everyone doing it (please don't do it if you don't have the float!) Maybe others can share some long term stats here so there is more proof to this theory.
I'm not the greatest record keeper (wastes too much time) but I have gone through my main asian (sbobet) and checked profit/loss for the last 3 months:
June 2010 = +£3,891.17
May 2010 = -£5,531.69
April 2010 = -£1,277.23
So I would of been +£2917.75 extra profit if not using SBObet but as you can see the variance would be huge so if anyone has long term stats I would love to see them.
Interesting topic .
I mug and match bet and often mix the 2 by matching qualifier and mugging free bets .
A couple of problems i see is the willingness to mug 100 on a 7/1 shot that is really a 5/1 shot , its a value bet but i wouldnt mug a 5/1 shot normally , ok you could say just do a 10 quid bet , or do you just take value bets at a certain price.?
Next problem is , how do you identify value? Are you going to use asians or betfair as your yardstick and anything that is above lay price you mug punt at the bookie or just use bestbetting to identify a value line , also dangers of getting gubbed by constantly taking value lines at a bookie , if you take value lines that have low liquidity at betfiar you may escape a gubbing .
I find alot of people that mug that dont normally mug will go for a 1.1-1.5 shot , they probably never considered the true odds but just take the bookies word for it that this is a "sure thing " , just because someone say something is 1.10 doesnt mean it is or it is going to win .
Saying all that i think it is a good idea , but if i was doing it myself id do out a list of rules for each bet to follow before id back it , ex . be less than 3 in odds.
I'll be very interested to hear some others opinions on this so great thread thanks .
£ Pinnies account across 15 months
Staked = £89,184
Overall Pinnies 'Profit/Loss' = -£5449
Biggest monthly 'Profit' at Pinnies = £1500
Biggest monthly 'Profit' at Pinnies as % of amount staked that month (same month as above) = 28%
Biggest monthly 'Loss' at Pinnies = -£2273
Biggest monthly 'Loss' at Pinnies as % of amount staked that month = 100% (it was one bet that month!) but otherwise 22%
$ Pinnies account across 11 months
Staked = $100,910
Overall Pinnies 'Profit/Loss' = +$6955
Biggest monthly 'Profit' at Pinnies = $4,423
Biggest monthly 'Profit' at Pinnies as % of amount staked that month = 32%
Biggest monthly 'Loss' at Pinnies = -$3,024
Biggest monthly 'Loss' at Pinnies as % of amount staked that month = 25%
The majority on the £ account is matching off for arbs or doing qualifiers so largely matching 'value bets'. On the $ account, bets were generally larger, often matching Free Plays (higher odds) or other bets (to complete rolls) where I wouldn't say I was matching 'value bets'. Across the months there have been some 'mug' punts but overall I think those would have little effect because of the stakes/volume in comparison with matched off bets.
Across Betfair accounts:
Betting p&l = +£11,005
Commission paid = £7,587
Net p&l = +£3,418
(in terms of BF volume then I don't have volume stats for one account but even without, the volume is £287k)
edit: to avoid confusion, you are only allowed 1 Pinnies account but your OH can operate an account which can be in another currency
Interesting results but I don't think 3 months is conclusive. I hear this theory over and over again, but i'm really not sure about it. It's all based on the assumption that the value doesn't lie with the Asian. This is just my opinion of course, but just becasue the market is moving doesn't necessarily mean value is emerging - the market may be wrong.
Originally Posted by blowingbubbles
There is one other factor that I also think is worth considering - as you pointed out the variance is huge. Even if mugging your bets was +EV (and I say again i'm really...really not sure about that), the variance may detract from your working float.
Just my two pence.
P.S. Also, personally I htink you should only mug when you have a strong opinion on the outcome - I actually feel this way about skewing stakes also, I am "pro" 50/50. I'll only underlay/dutch if I need some compensation for a WR.
Thanks for the feedback! Just thought I should add I know 3 months is no where near conclusive, partly why I started this thread so others can post long term results.
Yeah and no doubt it will turn out to be an interesting thread. I was receiving some advice at one time though that I should "definately" underlay all my bets (no it wasn't form you). And there seemed to be a definite culture of underlaying all bets - everybody was doing it. So I scratched my chin and really say down to think about it, and in the end I decided that (IMO) the value isn't identified by odds being out of line - I decided that I didn't know whether it was the fast moving or slow moving book that is offeirng the value.
Originally Posted by blowingbubbles
As I typed this I went to look at Musicbox's post. (-£5449) at Pinny's over 15 months. So I thought that would kind of go against what I am saying.
However, then I looked at his US Pinny's. +$4423 over 11 months. A totally different story.
Hopefully there will be enough data posted to produce a decent sample size - I will be interested to see the end result for sure.
Hmmm, think I might end up being proved wrong here. My BF account for instance shows substantial losses.
I've got two years' records starting in January 08 going up to December 09, and the total P/L over a multitude of bookies with about 99.99% of the bets layed or dutched, was £7,963.
I remember looking at this about a year or so ago and the results were pretty similar then.
I'm going to mug my £2k balance at Bethorizon because I still have a £2.3k WR, so I guess that'll even this out nicely.
You mean if you hadn't layed them off the profit would be £8k?
Originally Posted by Getthemax
I did similar some time back and I should check my records again but for the 2008/9 year over about 2500 horse bets iirc I would have been up about £7k profit if I'd not layed anything, though the variance would have been a bit crazy with some prices as high as 80.
Originally Posted by munk
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