Ok, I played a bit with a spreadsheet (but it's messy so I won't share it), and found that:
1. if you consider that the "true probability" is right in the middle of the probabilities indicated by the back and lay price, then the commission accounts for approximately half the loss of EV that you make by laying, and the "value" accounts for the other half.
2. if you consider, however, that the "true probability" is a bit closer from Betfair's lay price, then the commission accounts for 2/3 of losses, while the "value" accounts for 1/3.
3. if you consider that Betfair's lay price reflects exactly the "true probability", then the commission accounts for the whole loss obviously.
I personally think that option 2 is the most realistic. It has been shown by researchers that Betfair's price better reflects the probability than bookies', and that it more often than not reacts faster to new information about sport events. (I think I might have posted the links to some scientific articles earlier in this thread?).
So, if I didn't have to pay any commission at all, what would I do? Instead of an extra £1200 EV by not fully laying, I would only get an extra £400 EV, which is not enough for me compared to the risk taken. This being said, I would probably still slightly underlay (within the limits of the risk I'm willing to take - which I would re-calculate with the spreadsheet), just for the convenience of not having to ask to a spreadsheet each time, how much I'm supposed to lay exactly.
Which answers your question joffyy
I still have to think about the impact of bankroll - but this I believe I need to wait until Royal Ascot, to reach the limits of my bankroll and see how that impacts my profit.
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1. Yes though really it depends what you're doing, if you're betting on a big market with high liquidity then the difference between back/lay is minimal but it should definitely be taken into consideration if a market you're betting on has a gap between the prices.
Originally Posted by pamjou
2. Well the bankroll doesn't necessary have to stay in betting, the money you would be using for matching could now be invested into another venture. By not matching you can indirectly make more money this way.
By ThisCharmingMan in forum Player Support / Gaming Site Feedback / General Complaints
Last Post: 08/12/2010, 20:57
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