Only just dropped by this thread.
If people are keen on trading plays a popular one is to back the under 2.5 goals market, and then lay it in play . The theory being that the average time for a first goal is 38 minutes, so up until the first goal the under 2.5 odds slowly drop, and even it one goal is scored before you can lay. The odds still come down if it stays that way. The key is obviously not to choose a match you think is likely to be a goal fest. But it is a relatively safe way to get into trading. especially if your going to watch the game as footy is much easier to gauge than horseys or Russian tennis players.
Is laying the draw when there is a clear favourite not just betting on the favourite in a different way, but still gambling?
The longer the odds on the draw, yeah sure you are likely to win the first few times you do it, but it will go wrong at some point... And a loss will be much more costly than your wins because of the odds.
I'm not saying it won't work, but it feels more like gambling.
To me trading is more along the lines of spotting when odds are out of line and about to move. Easier done pre match. I only did it for small stakes (£10ish), but I found if I parked an offer on betfair at a longer price and left it over night it would often go, particularly when the market is still forming. I use the bookies to guide me. Say the bookies have an average price of 1.6 on the favourite. Betfair is currently trading at 1.65. I would then put a back on for 1.72 (or something like that) and wait. Often that money would get taken. On several occasions I could then close this out before the start of the event for a profit or occasionally only break even. Maybe I just got lucky as this was only a small sample, 5 or 6 games, or maybe this only worked because the profits were so small nobody bothers! I have no idea!
Another thing I tried is with the 20 20 cricket was to try and trade on over-reactions to certain events. I wasn't very good at sticking to the plan, but if you watch the odds, pretty much without fail they over-react to every 6 and every wicket. Say they are at 1.7 for the batting team and a wicket falls. They will often move by as much as 0.2, but then come back in again slightly to say 1.85/86 often even before the next ball is bowled. Timing is a pain in the butt. For every time I got it right, I would then miss the top and find myself with a slight loss that I would then wait for "1 more ball".
Not sure how to do this for football as there are a lower number of "events" that shift the odds. Goals, red cards, and that is about it, other than that, the odds probably just drift slowly across the game. Not really tracked odds on ftie yet, waiting for the next football season to try that!
All good fun! I guess all trading is gambling anyway, just betting on the way the odds will go if not the actual event!
Along those lines regards 'over reaction', I'm wondering right now if Federer at 1.95 to win Wimbledon is a bit of an over-reaction to Nadal pulling out before it starts. I would have thought that the first time he's in a match that goes to 5 sets, that price will go out a good few points.
At 1.95 the market is basically saying he's a lock in for the final and everyone else is in that market is just playing for the one other place in the final... but then again maybe the market is right!?
Layed £10 before kickoff at 5.9
15-20 minutes in 0-0, draw back odds had drifted around 5.7 - 5.8
21 mins south africa score. Draw odds lengthen to 11.5
30 mins draw odds lengthen to 16 (I back £3.5)
The odds shortened to 12 towards halftime
I managed to make £6.5 and would've made £3.5 if the match had ended as a draw
Looking back the the odds on SA, had I backed £50 at 1.33 before kickoff I could've laid at odds of 1.09 and made about £11 but I wasn't sure how far the odds would drop.
This is how I trade but generally on matches with shorter odds as if you do have a loser at those prices then the liability is high. I do often stay in and not trade out as well.
There is no value in backing him now though, as you say if he gets to the final he will still be what 1.5? Maybe 1.3 at a low depending who he is playing obviously but will it really be that much shorter? And to get there he has to win six games first, and avoid injury...
Im laying a small amount and using that green on the others to fund a few punts on long shots I think could suprise and get through to later rounds. I will be neutral on the field. Then I will then lay them back if they have progressed to round 3 or 4 and use that as a bet to nothing on them and reback Fed who will not have come in much if any by that stage. By Round 3 he will be what, 1.8? "IF" he is still in it of course. Well thats the plan...
Also I will lay everything under 1.04 odds to win £100, putting money in the queue at the current back odds. It doesnt cost much and is a nice windfall when it happens and gives a lot of interest watching the BBC highlights each night. There is always* a few big upsets early on when some 16yr old Yugoslavian Girl nobody has ever heard of beats one of the Seeds or one of the Brits in it on a wildcard is inspired by the home advantage/this is the thing of his dreams, type thing plays the match of his life to go through to the Second round.
*Maybe not always, if this strategy actually worked long term I would be rich. It is fun though.